jakiro
Source: Coinbase; Compilation: Wuzhu, bitchain vision
summary
-
Easing Sino-US trade relations, as well as a US$600 billion US-Saudi commercial deal, are boosting investor confidence and driving Bitcoin and some altcoins to appreciate.
-
The latest regulatory news includes bipartisan progress on the GENIUS Act and a draft of the U.S. House of Representatives’ discussions on the cryptocurrency market structure bill.
The easing of Sino-US trade relations has boosted investor sentiment over the past week, and the significant rise in Bitcoin and some altcoins reflects this optimism.The optimism was further confirmed by the U.S. government’s $600 billion business deal with Saudi Arabia earlier this week, suggesting that the trade diplomacy remains strong.Japan has hinted that a deal could be reached by June, which could help address concerns surrounding advanced semiconductors, which is alleviating investors’ concerns that the U.S. could fall into a recession this year.Nevertheless, the Financial Times recently reported that Japan’s position could be tougher due to the July Senate election.
Recall that after the first quarter of 2025 released on April 30, the possibility of a technical recession seemed to be greater at the time, as weak data predicts another contraction in the second quarter of 2025.However, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasts real growth at present at 2.5%, up from 2.3% a week ago.From the perspective of the cryptocurrency market, the risk of a recession is that investment intentions tend to be lower and saving intentions are higher during these periods, as economic uncertainty suppresses spending.
at the same time,As ETH catches up with peers like BTC and SOL, ETH has experienced a surge driven primarily by technology, reflecting a large number of offside positions, short cover and subsequent re-arbitrage.We believe that ETH has lacked meaningful narratives for some time, with many cryptocurrency native institutional funds either downsizing their holdings in ETH or shorting ETH as portfolio hedges in the past 12-18 months.Therefore, we believe that ETH has failed to reflect some significant positive factors in the recent past, including the recent Pectra upgrade and proposals from Vitalik Buterin (about RISC-V) or Ethereum Foundation researcher Dankrad Feist (EIP-9698).
In fact, net outflows of spot ETH ETFs have approached $140 million so far this year (compared to $6.1 billion inflows of spot BTC ETFs), but these funds did attract $61 million this week (May 8-14).However, we believe this suggests that despite the price trend, the interest in placing ETH more broadly is still relatively limited.It should be noted that May 15 is the deadline for 13-F filing (Q1 2025), but only companies with more than $100 million in managed funds are required.Initial signs that some institutions are waning interest in U.S. spot ETFs (Reuters) and the Wisconsin Investment Commission has withdrawn from its holdings.On the other hand, Brown University’s endowment fund bought $4.9 million worth of IBIT stock last quarter.
Regulatory dynamics
Recently, media reports on the GENIUS Act, the U.S. Senate stablecoin bill, have been somewhat misleading.Here’s the thing: Last week (May 8), the Senate failed to advance the GENIUS Act in its termination of the debate (i.e., to end the debate on a certain bill or issue and to hold a final vote).Instead, many newspapers regard the results of the termination of the debate as an indefinite stagnation, which may lead to a vacuum of legislative policies.
In fact, Democrats initially supported the bill on the committee, but some Republican lawmakers later used procedural means (Rule 14D) to modify the bill, but the modification was not endorsed by some members of the bipartisan.Since then, the two parties have been working to reach a deal and add new amendments to the bill to increase transparency in stablecoins.South Dakota Senator John Thune has since applied for another procedural vote on the GENIUS Act on Monday, May 19, which may soon be fully passed based on the vote.
In fact, Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Digital Assets Advisory Board, said this week that he believes both the stablecoin bill and market structure legislation can be completed before the adjournment in August 2025.On May 5, French Hill, chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, and G.T. Thompson, chairman of the House Agricultural Committee, released a discussion draft for the cryptocurrency market structure bill.This means that before formal legislation, the bill requires input from industry stakeholders, comments from legal experts, reviews from committees, and possible revisions.It is worth mentioning that the bill clearly defines the jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and establishes avenues for registration and disclosure of cryptocurrency activities in the United States.
Overview of Cryptocurrencies and Traditional Assets
Coinbase Exchange and CES Insights
Ethereum’s rally continued, up 15% over the past seven days.Although this trend occurs concurrently with Pectra’s update, it seems to be driven mainly by the supply and demand factors on the technical side.Ethereum’s performance has been going on for more than a year, causing many cryptocurrency native funds to reduce their holdings and even short the token to hedge risks.The recent short squeeze is likely to be the result of the fund chasing performance and covering it.In other areas of the market, traders have been selling altcoins to lock in profits after rising in April.BTC is still favored by various customer types, with capital flows seriously tilted towards buyers.
Financing rate
