jakiro
Shaw, bitchain vision
In the early morning of September 26, Beijing time, the cryptocurrency market was hit hard again, and Bitcoin fell below the key support level of $110,000; Ethereum fell below $3,900, a new low in the past seven weeks; Solana fell 7.2%.The market value of the cryptocurrency market has evaporated by more than US$140 billion.Nearly 250,000 people were exposed, with losses exceeding US$1.1 billion, and the long positions of US$1.7 billion were forced to close.On Monday afternoon this week, the cryptocurrency market had just experienced a flash crash, and all major assets had a rapid decline. The amount of liquidated positions on the entire network reached US$1.026 billion within one hour, of which the liquidated positions on the long order was approximately US$1.007 billion.
The crypto market suffered a series of heavy losses in just one week, which cast a shadow on the coming September.Is the cryptocurrency “September Curse” staged again?What is the future trend of the fourth quarter?Let’s make a brief analysis.
1. Will the double decline this week cause the “September Curse” to be staged again?
1. What is the “September Curse”
The “September Curse” refers to a seasonal anxiety caused by the historical price data of the cryptocurrency market (especially Bitcoin). The average return rate in September is usually negative and the decline is significant.
Bitcoin fell against the US dollar for six consecutive years between 2017 and 2022.Although this trend has led many investors to believe that seasonal factors significantly affect crypto market performance, the assumption has been falsified in 2023 and 2024.
2. Cryptocurrency Market Performance This Week
The cryptocurrency market has been in a slight upward state since September, but since the end of the month, volatility has gradually increased.The cryptocurrency market has suffered two major blows starting this week.The flash crash in the crypto market on Monday caused liquidation of $1.026 billion, of which the amount of long positions was about $1.007 billion.The crypto market was hit hard again in the early morning of this day, with Bitcoin falling below the key support level of $110,000, down nearly 4%; Ethereum fell below the $3,900 mark, plunging more than 7% in the day, hitting a new low in the past seven weeks, continuing the momentum of a sharp correction in cryptocurrency this week; Solana fell 7.2%, down for 6 consecutive days.The entire cryptocurrency market has evaporated by more than US$140 billion in market value.Nearly 250,000 people around the world lost their positions, with losses exceeding US$1.1 billion, and the long positions of US$1.7 billion were forced to close.
Historical data shows that September is usually one of the weakest months for risky assets.Whether it is US stocks or cryptocurrencies, the average yield in September is significantly lower than the full-year average.It is not surprising that the cryptocurrency market will maintain its current price level and end September entering the fourth quarter.
2. What are the incentives for the decline of the cryptocurrency market this week
1. The withdrawal of institutional funds may intensify the pressure of selling
Cooling of capital inflows in crypto markets has exacerbated selling pressure.Coinglass data shows thatSince Monday, US listed spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net capital outflows for four consecutive days, investors have already come from ETFsWithdrawal of more than $547 millionfunds.andUS spot Bitcoin ETF funds have experienced three net outflows this week,totalNet outflow of funds exceeds US$479 million.
The continued net outflow of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF funds shows that weaker institutional demand may lead to a longer period of adjustment.Institutional investor demand is one of the main drivers of this round of crypto bull market, andThe current cooling of institutional capital inflows may delay the upward momentum of the crypto market..
2. DAT narrative cools down, “mNAV premium” is disappearing
at presentDigital asset treasury (DAT) boom has weakened, flywheel effect and demand for crypto assets have decreased.Data shows that the market net asset value ratio (mNAV) of most DATs has basically tended to be parity, with the compression of ETH DATs being the most significant since May.This indicates that the “DAT premium” is disappearing.The weighted average mNAV of ETH DAT fell from a high of more than 5 times in early summer to less than 1 times in early September.DAT trading volume peaked in mid-August and fell in September, which suggests that the DAT’s narrative has faded, while valuations are re-anchored on the net asset value (NAV).
also,The latest regulatory measures also add more uncertainty to the future development of the DAT model.The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Financial Industry Regulatory Commission are reportedly investigating an abnormal trading model of more than 200 companies that announced their digital asset treasury strategy, whose shares rose sharply before announcing their plans to buy digital assets.In conversations and letters with relevant companies, the regulators highlighted particular concerns about potential violations in fair disclosure provisions.This regulation requires listed companies to treat all market participants equally when disclosing important information and not selectively disclose insider information that may be used for transactions.
All signs show that the DAT narrative is cooling down. Simply relying on DAT strategy companies to purchase crypto assets can stimulate market prices. This model is destined not to last long.
3. The future economic situation is unclear, and the Fed’s expected policies have caused concerns
Recently, the growth rate of US GDP exceeded expectations and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits has declined. Strong data has increased the uncertainty of the Fed’s future interest rate cut path, and the market’s expectations for a rate cut in October have cooled down.
Differences within the Fed over further rate cuts are deepening, reflecting the policy challenges Fed officials face when balancing inflation risks with employment concerns.Kansas City Fed Chairman Schmid and Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby were concerned about aggressive rate cuts this year, two Fed officials who have the voting rights of the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Committee FOMC.In contrast, Vice Chairman Bowman, who is in charge of financial regulation, and new Federal Reserve Director Milan promoted faster rate cuts.
The Fed just decided to cut interest rates for the first time this year last week, but there is still debate on the path to subsequent interest rate cuts.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell continued to leave room for further rate cuts in his speech on Tuesday, and hinted that he would be cautious in a challenging and risky environment.Powell said interest rates “still moderately restrictive” and faced two risks of rising inflation and downward employment. He reiterated the reasonable expectation that tariffs would push up prices at one time, saying that it would ensure that tariffs would not continue to affect.In addition, Powell did not hint whether he would support a rate cut next month.
Uncertainty in economic conditions has exacerbated the Fed’s divergence on future policy expectations, raising concerns about the direction of subsequent interest rate decisions, which further slowed down the upward trend of risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
4. The “black swan” event may induce market panic
This week,Hacker attacks on two periods of celebrity projects triggered a sharp drop in related tokens.On September 23, security company Cyvers’ system detected a $11.3 million suspicious deal involving UXLINK.UXLINK is suspected to be stolen.Then Slow Fog Cosine posted a message on X platform to confirm that UXLINK was hacked.After the hacker stole funds, he issued an additional 1 billion UXLINKs on the chain.After being attacked, UXLINK fell sharply.Yesterday, GriffinAI officially announced that the GAIN tokens on the BNB chain encountered a major security incident.The attacker successfully illegally minted 5 billion GAIN tokens on the BNB chain and sold them, directly triggering a wave of panic selling in the market.The price of GAIN tokens once shrank by more than 90%, seriously affecting its subsequent price support.
These two tokens for celebrity projectHacker attacks may trigger the “black swan” effect, which aggravates market panic, to a certain extent, has also affected the trend of the overall cryptocurrency market.
3. What is the market trend in the next fourth quarter?
Although the cryptocurrency market has suffered a heavy blow this week, the market’s overall judgment of the crypto bull market has not changed significantly, and the bullish trend of the crypto market in the next fourth quarter is still mainly bullish.
1. CoinbaseThe study expects that the crypto market will continue to strengthen at the beginning of the fourth quarter, due to sufficient resilience of liquidity, favorable macro background and supportive regulatory dynamics, among which Bitcoin is expected to perform outstandingly.The technical demand for DAT is expected to continue to support the crypto market, even if the industry enters the competitive “player game” stage.Coinbase also stressed that historical monthly seasonal patterns (especially the “September Curse”) are not significant or reliable predictors of crypto market performance.
2. GrayscaleThe latest research report says the return on the crypto sector in the fourth quarter may be driven by a range of unique themes.First, relevant U.S. Senate committees have begun to formulate legislation on crypto market structure.This represents comprehensive financial services legislation for the cryptocurrency industry and may serve as a catalyst for its deep integration with the traditional financial services industry.Second, the US SEC has approved the general listing standard for commodities-based exchange-traded products (ETPs).This could lead to an increase in the amount of crypto assets available to U.S. investors through the ETP structure.Third, crypto assets are expected to benefit from the Fed’s rate cut (as interest rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding interest-free currencies and can support investors’ risk appetite).
3. Tom Lee, Co-founder of Fundstrat and Chairman of BitMineIt said that Ethereum is a “true neutral chain” that will be favored by Wall Street and the White House.Lee further explained that he has observed that the White House and Congress have become more supportive of cryptocurrencies under the Trump administration, and now mainly moves toward Ethereum.Lee said he saw the possibility that Ethereum entered a “super cycle” that lasted 10 to 15 years.
4. VanEckThe publication pointed out that more than 290 companies currently hold more than $163 billion worth of Bitcoin.Since the amount of Bitcoin mining in the same period was only 270,000, the current growth rate of corporate demand is about 4.3 times that of Bitcoin production.If ETP, other funds and government-held Bitcoin are taken into consideration, the total demand growth rate of institutions is about 6.7 times the output.Institutional investors accelerated their purchase of Bitcoin, showing that they are increasingly acknowledging their deflationary supply, which gives Bitcoin a unique store of value attribute.
5. Bitwise Asset ManagementIt said that the previous digital asset treasury strategy was mainly centered on Bitcoin, but now companies are allocating ETH on a large scale.Analyst Max ShannonIt is pointed out that ETH treasury is no longer a fringe topic, but is becoming a structural pillar of the cryptocurrency capital market.ETH is not just a hedging or speculative tool, but a programmable financial asset that connects corporate financing to the on-chain economy.
6. Billionaire Mark CubanIt said that companies holding Bitcoin as treasury assets are an alternative hedging option to resist the risks of fiat currency.
7. Cryptoquant analyst Axel Adler JrMarket analysis was released to indicate that the market has entered a revised range oscillation mode, and the current rebound is more of a temporary rebound than a trend restart.Within the channel, the key support is at $109,500.If you keep this level and push the structure back above zero, the bullish pattern will be restored and it is expected to retest $117,700.
