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Author: Matt Hougan, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer; Compilation: 0xjs@作 作 作 作 作 作
Every year, the Bitwise team will gather together to make annual forecasts for the future of cryptocurrencies.This process requires more than a dozen team members to discuss, debate and reflect on several hours.This is one of our most exciting things every year.
We will release the 2025 forecast on December 10.Tip: We think it will be crazy in 2025.But before we conduct a forecast next year, reviewing the performance of 2024 is worth it.
Background setting: Looking back at December 2023
First, let’s introduce the scene first.
We released the forecast of 2024 on December 12, 2023.Cryptocurrencies were very different at the time.The transaction price of Bitcoin was $ 43,750, and the remarks of anti -crypto currency in the Washington Special Economic Zone were very fierce.Just a few days before we released the forecast of 2024, Jimmy Chase CEO Jimi Dimon testified at the parliamentary hearing that he had “strongly opposed cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, etc.”.Then he said, “If I am a government, I will turn it off.”
The progress made in 2024 is amazing.Bitcoin’s current transaction price is close to $ 100,000. Politicians who support cryptocurrencies dominate in Washington, and Wall Street Company is also eagerly developing in this field.But when we formulate annual forecasts in December 2023, all this is not obvious.
Let’s see how we do.
Forecast in 2024 1: Bitcoin transaction price will exceed $ 80,000, a record high.
Result: correct
Our prediction is accurate.Bitcoin exceeded $ 80,000 in November and continued to rise. The current transaction price is close to $ 100,000.Our argument at the time -the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF and the decrease of Bitcoin will jointly increase the price -completely correct.
We will announce the price target of 2025 next week and increase the price targets of Ethereum and Solana.stay tuned.
Forecast 2: Spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved and will become the most successful ETF launch in history.
Result: correct
This is also victory.The spot Bitcoin ETF approved in January 2024 has become the most successful ETF issue to date.As of December 1, 2024, Bitcoin ETF has attracted $ 31 billion in capital inflows.Earlier, the “most successful ETF issuance in history” record is Invesco QQ Trust (QQq). The trust was listed in 1999 and attracted $ 5 billion in assets in the first year.Gold ETF attracted less than $ 2 billion in funds in the first year.The capital flow of Bitcoin ETF is several times that of the number and is still growing.
Forecast 3: Coinbase’s income will double, exceeding the Wall Street expectations (profit) at least 10 times.
Result: correct
This will be a common match.Coinbase’s revenue in 2023 was $ 3.1 billion, with revenue of $ 4.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2024.Can it reach $ 6.2 billion by the end of the year?I think it can.The fourth quarter is an extraordinary quarter for cryptocurrencies.
Coinbase is still one of the most fascinating companies in the world, and in our opinion, the company is underestimated.Next week we will also release a series of predictions related to Coinbase.
Forecast 4: The funds with stable currency settlement will be more than the funds using VISA settlement.
Result: incorrect
In the first six months of 2024, the global stable currency settlement amount reached 5.1 trillion US dollars, a significant increase from the same period last year.But they have not yet caught up with Visa, the latter settled at the same period of $ 6.5 trillion.It’s close but not yet victory.
Forecast 5: As Wall Street is preparing to consider the asset token of the real world, JPMorgan Chase will conduct tokenize a fund and launch on the chain.
Result: incorrect
I really hope that this dream will come true.If you see Morgan Chase (its CEO once scolded Washington to “close” cryptocurrencies), it would be a sweet irony.
We are very close to success!The Wall Street tokens is a major theme in 2024.Berlaid, Franklin, Dunpon, Gugenheim, UBS, and French Industrial Bank have taken this step.Morgan Chase invested huge sums of money in its tokenization, reshaped its own tokenization platform, and called the tokenization as “the next generation of financial infrastructure.”But the company did not actually launch a fund, so we could not claim that we were victory.
Forecast 6: As users flood to encrypted applications, Ethereum’s income will increase by more than double to $ 5 billion.
Result: incorrect
What we said before is outrageous.In 2024, application activities based on Ethereum increased significantly, but the income at the end of the year may be slightly lower than last year’s $ 2 billion.Why?The “Dencun” upgrade in Ethereum in March reduced the network cost by 99%.We eventually think that this is beneficial to the network, but the impact of income in the short term is challenging.
Forecast 7: Taylor Swift will launch NFT to establish contact with fans in a new way.
Result: incorrect
This has not happened, but it is still a field worth paying attention to in 2025.According to reports, Taylor has always worried whether NFT is securities.If we have clearer NFT supervision in the next year, this problem may be re -issued on the agenda.
Forecast 8: Artificial intelligence assistant will use cryptocurrencies online and confirm that cryptocurrencies are “native currencies of the Internet”.
Result: correct
In July, the legendary venture capitalist Marc Andreessen donated a $ 50,000 Bitcoin worth $ 50,000 to an AI robot called Truth Terminal.The robot finally helped promote a MEME coin -Goatseus Maximus (Goat) -currently worth $ 674 million.We guess that AI robots will use cryptocurrencies and stablecoins in the next few years.Although the Goat experiment is crazy, it provides a amazing concept proof.
Forecast 9: As the forecast market becomes a new “killer application” for cryptocurrencies, it will invest more than $ 100 million in funds.
Result: correct
This is my most proud of all of our predictions.
In December 2023, few people have heard of Polymarket, which is a cryptocurrency -based prediction market. Users can bet on global events.But we are the fans of the platform and think that as the US elections approach, it will take off.God, we are right: the total bet amount on the platform jumps from the $ 8 million when we predict to the peak level
In our 2025 prediction article, we will predict the next breakthrough encryption application.
Forecast 10: The major upgrade of Ethereum blockchain will make the average transaction cost below $ 0.01, paving the road for more mainstream uses.
Result: correct
I want to count this.The average transaction cost of many Ethereum 2 layers of networks has decreased by more than 90% year -on -year, and it is currently hovering between $ 0.01 and $ 0.02.But this summer it fell below $ 0.01. I believe that as the underlying technology continues to improve, we will soon reach this level.Transactions below one -dollar score on the main blockchain will change the world.
Extra forecast: By the end of 2024, a quarter of the financial advisory will allocate cryptocurrencies in the customer account.
Results: to be determined
Every year, we investigate financial consultants to learn how many people hold cryptocurrencies in customer accounts.In 2023, only 11% said “yes”.The investigation at the end of 2024 is still underway, so we don’t know if it will reach 25%.A potential resistance is: large and large banks such as Wells Fargo, UBS and Merrill Lynch have not yet approved the spot Bitcoin ETF.But we think this is just a matter of time, not a problem.
in conclusion
So how do we do?Six are correct, four mistakes, and one is unreasonable.Considering how radical our predictions -Bitcoin prices have doubled, the forecast market has soared, and the cost of Ethereum will decrease by 99%. All of these occur in a fast -changing field -we accept it.
But it is determined that in 2025 we will have a higher rate.stay tuned.
