jakiro
Since the launch of the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF, the Bitcoin price-driven logic has shifted from on-chain signals to off-chain funds and leverage. Five of these signals jointly determine the bull and bear trend of this round.
First, ETF capital flow is the core incremental engine.Gemini and Glassnode data show that the cumulative holdings of spot ETFs exceed 515,000 Bitcoins, which is 2.4 times the amount issued by miners during the same period.Research confirms that ETF inflows explain prices far more than traditional crypto variables.
The net inflow of US$12.1 billion in the first quarter of 2024 directly pushed Bitcoin to a record high; the net redemption of US$3.7 billion in November 2025 (the largest monthly outflow since its launch) caused the price to fall from US$126,000 to the US$80,000 range.Today, 500 million US dollars of IBIT are flowing out in a single day, and its influence is comparable to the operation of a giant whale on the chain.
Second, perpetual financing and futures basis reveal the leverage cycle.The current annualized financing rate is stable at 8%-12%. A peak exceeding 20% often indicates a partial peak, and a serious negative financing rate corresponds to a cyclical trough.
During the period when ETF funds turned negative in November 2025, open interest in futures contracts declined and the financing rate was at a low level, which resonated with the decline in currency prices.When ETF inflows surge but financing is sluggish, it indicates that demand is sustainable; if the financing rate surges but ETF funds stagnate, it is a short-term bubble signal of leverage chasing the rise.
Third, stablecoin liquidity is the cornerstone of the native market.The supply of stablecoins will increase by 59% in 2024, with transfer volume reaching 27.6 trillion US dollars. Changes in supply and exchange balances often lead currency price fluctuations.
When ETF funds and stablecoin supply are both positive, the bull market momentum is strongest; if both turn negative simultaneously, the speed and magnitude of the decline will be aggravated.ETF is the entry point for institutions, and stablecoins determine the marginal capital size of native traders.
Fourth, the evolution of holder structure reshapes market elasticity.The positions of long-term holders (LTH) have reached a record high, tightening the circulation supply, but the proportion of short-term “hot capital” has increased to 38%, making the market more sensitive to capital flows.The price falling below the key cost range in November 2025 is directly related to LTH diversifying its positions into ETFs and exchanges and weakening support.
Fifth, macro liquidity transmits impacts through ETFs.Bitcoin’s beta coefficient to changes in global liquidity reaches 5-9 times (gold 2-3 times, stocks 1 times), making it a high-beta macro asset.Changes in Federal Reserve policy and real yields will be quickly transmitted to the spot and derivatives markets through ETF capital flows.
The sell-off in the autumn of 2025 is precisely the chain reaction caused by the tightening of liquidity and the disillusionment of interest rate cut expectations through the outflow of ETF funds.
These five signals are like linkage gears:ETF determines the basic market of the institution, the financing rate amplifies or weakens the momentum, the stable currency supplements the original funds, the holder structure determines the ability to resist risks, and macro liquidity controls the cost of capital.When the five directions are consistent, the currency price is likely to rise; if there is a divergence, it is likely to lead to a decline.
