jakiro
Author: TVBee.edge; Source: X, @blockTVBee
MVRV divergence
In the past, the peak value of MVRV was close to the peak value of BTC price, and generally fluctuated in the same direction.However, after this round of MVRV reached its peak in March 2024, it has generally shown a downward trend, diverging from the rise in BTC prices.
May be related to ETF
There is no need to say more about the time in March 2024.Exactly before the BTC ETF was passed.
It may be that earlier BTC holders are reducing their holdings
MV: circulating market capitalization.
RV: Realized market value, counting the sum of the value increments (or negative increments) of each BTC move on the chain.
MVRV=MV/RV
MV is rising, but MVRV is falling, indicating that RV is rising more.This shows that the BTC on the chain is moving.Observing the “long-term BTC” on the chain, it is indeed decreasing overall.
However, overall “long-term BTC” has not decreased much.Therefore, it may be that the BTC bought earlier are reducing their holdings, because the cost of earlier BTC is low, and its movement can make the RV rise more.
Grayscale Is One of the Selling Pressures of ‘Long-Term BTC’
It is speculated that Grayscale may be reducing its holdings.Because almost all BTC ETF cumulative net inflows are positive, only Grayscale is negative, and the cumulative net outflow is nearly $25 billion.
Grayscale’s GBTF funds had a significant net outflow, which occurred from January to May 2024, which happened to correspond to the first wave of “long-term BTC” decrease.
From October 2024 to March 2025, and after July 2025, when these two waves of “long-term BTC” decreased, Grayscale GBTC also experienced a net outflow of funds, but the impact was smaller.This wave should be that holders on the chain are reducing their holdings of BTC.
The influence of “Long-term BTC” is weakening
The “long-term BTC” indicator refers to BTC held on the chain for more than 155 days.Therefore, when “long-term BTC” falls, long-term holders are selling.However, the “long-term BTC” growth was started 155 days ago.
Therefore, in the past, increases in BTC prices often corresponded to increases in “long-term BTC”.The decrease in “long-term BTC” often corresponds to a decrease in BTC price.The 2013 double-headed bull market, the 2017 bull market, and the 2021 bull market are all like this.
However, the two waves of this round are obviously different: when “long-term BTC” increases, there is no corresponding obvious increase in price.When “long-term BTC” falls, there is no corresponding significant drop in price.Clearly, the impact of “long-term BTC” is weakening.
Might be due to behavioral differences among ETF traders
Why does this happen?From a time point of view, it is basically after the adoption of ETF.
After checking the data, from January 2024 to the present, the number of BTC on the exchange has decreased by approximately 790,000.After the adoption of US ETF, US ETF held approximately 700,000 BTC in total.
In other words, the trading market has not become larger.So why did the situation change after the ETF was passed?It shows that the behavior of ETF traders is different from the behavior of traders on the exchange.
First of all, “Long-term BTC” counts the number of BTC held on the chain for more than 155 days.Therefore, “long-term BTC” begins to decrease, which means that long-term holders mainly sell.However, “long-term BTC” began to increase, which actually corresponded to the purchase behavior 155 days ago.
On-chain selling behavior
The first wave is from January to April 2024. In this wave, Grayscale is mainly selling, as analyzed before.
The second wave is from September 2024 to March 2025. This wave should be profit-taking selling. Like previous rounds of bull markets, long-term holders are distributing.And interest rate cuts will begin in September 2024.
The third wave is from July 2025 to the present, and this wave is also the distribution expected to start with the interest rate cut in September.
On-chain buying behavior
Therefore, the increase in “long-term BTC” in September 2024 corresponds to the buying behavior in April 2024.At this time, it was the fourth month after the adoption of the ETF.
Since seed funds were established before the BTC ETF was approved, when the ETF was purchased in the early market, the issuer/AP had sufficient BTC reserves, so the BTC price rose in the early stage, but there was no on-chain purchasing behavior.Starting from the fourth month, ETF market makers (AP) began to buy more BTC on the chain to meet the demand of the ETF market.It is not until September 2024 that we can see the increase in “long-term BTC” in the on-chain data.
The second wave of “long-term BTC” increase will occur approximately from mid-March to mid-June 2025.Corresponding to the on-chain purchasing behavior from mid-October 2024 to mid-January 2025.This period is from the time when Trump is expected to be elected to before Trump takes office.
Summary
After the adoption of ETF, there are several characteristics of on-chain buying and selling behavior:
-
Macro is the main influencing factor, including the adoption of ETFs, Trump and interest rate cuts.
-
The ETF market maker (AP) redeems BTC and then sells it on the chain, but there are different traders in the ETF market, some are buying and some are selling, so the market will not crash instantly.
-
On the contrary, the ETF market maker (AP) buys BTC on the chain and then puts it into the ETF market. There are different traders in the ETF market, some are buying and some are selling, so there will be no rapid pull-up.
-
Many ETF traders use algorithms and scripts to execute transactions, so they are more rational and less likely to chase ups and downs.This is why we are seeing smaller BTC price bubbles than before.
write at the end
The four-year bull-bear cycle we believe is due to the BTC halving. In addition to the emotional impact, the underlying logic is miners and the on-chain economy.
However, MVRV and BTC price trends diverged, and the impact of “long-term BTC” on BTC prices has significantly weakened.These on-chain data indicators show that we can no longer simply carve out past history.
First, under the influence of ETF liquidity buffers and rational trading of ETFs, the emotional ups and downs have weakened.This could explain why this BTC top this round was so unsatisfactory.
Second, if there is a bear market next, the bottom of BTC may not be very low.Unless there is a black swan event like Sanjian and FTX.Even if a black swan occurs, the market’s confidence in BTC is much higher than in 2022.
Third, ETF traders, do they believe more in the four-year bull and bear market?Or do you believe more in macro-influence?
If there were no Trump tariffs and trade wars from February to April, BTC might have continued to rise moderately.
Next, the tariff war is basically suspended.The U.S. government is gradually recovering, and economic data will be released one after another (although October’s data may not be accurate).Interest rates will always start to be cut, either in December or early next year…
