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Author: Kyle Chasse, compiled by: Aki
This interview with BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes focuses on macro policy, liquidity and crypto asset pricing.He analyzed and predicted that the United States will enter a stage of parallel interest rate cuts and fiscal expansion; stablecoins, as the “price-insensitive buyer” of US bonds, will weaken the rights of the Federal Reserve; funds will be transmitted to the chain through stablecoins, and they will prefer DeFi protocols with repurchases, dividends and verifiable cash flow.Bitcoin is regarded as a core asset to hedge against the depreciation of fiat currency, and also expressed its views on Hyperliquid’s growth path and token unlocking risks, as well as the capital operation of “digital asset treasury stocks”.
Fed rate decision: cut interest rates by 25 basis points
Arthur Hayes: I haven’t looked at the latest 2-year U.S. Treasury today, but in the past one and a half to two weeks, the 2-year yield has roughly fallen by 50–60 basis points after the non-farm employment (NFP) was released and the U.S. employment data was downgraded, and the PPI was lower than expected two days ago.In addition, Powell has made a clear turn in Jackson Hall, opening the door to a rate cut.I tend to think that the probability of a 50 basis point cut in this meeting is higher.I also think Trump and his supporters will hope for greater easing, which is why he continues to put pressure on the decision-makers.(The podcast was released on September 13, and some information may be lagging behind. The Federal Reserve has announced a rate cut of 25bps in the future)
I think like previous presidents in the United States, every president will eventually achieve the monetary policy he hopes for.This incident is historically precedent: Lyndon B. Johnson allegedly put face-to-face pressure on then-Federal Chairman William McChesney Martin to demand a rate cut in his private home in Texas; and the Nixon period put all-round pressure on Arthur Burns (cooperating with Treasury Secretary John Connally and others) to ensure interest rates decline.Trump’s tough pressure on Powell is the same.Like previous Fed officials, Powell will eventually give the monetary policy he wants at the political level: lower interest rates.Maybe it will take longer than you think, but the direction will not change.
So, I think we are already in a cycle of rate cuts.Although I personally judge that inflation will remain sticky in the next 18-24 months; if you do not hold hard assets such as gold, Bitcoin, or stocks that perform well in the U.S. market, you will truly feel the pressure from higher inflation.
Kyle Chasse: So your judgment is that the rate cut will continue all the way into 2026.So how will it be promoted?How many times will it be?
Arthur Hayes: After all, the number of times does not matter.Bessent and Trump need to issue more currencies to support their agenda, so the Fed will cut interest rates.Even if QE is not restarted directly, it will “print money” through various means: maybe it is the mortgage market, maybe it is bank credit, maybe it is the various arrangements reached by Trump and other countries’ sovereign wealth funds, or it may also be allocated about $100 billion in “equity capital” to the Department of Defense (DoD) and then leverage to invest in resource-based enterprises such as MP Materials to promote the reversal of several structural problems.In short, there are too many paths to provide credit; of course, the degree of benefit of different departments will vary.The advantage of Bitcoin is that we don’t care where this money goes.As long as the US dollar, RMB, euro, and Japanese yen are increasing, these fiat currencies are depreciating; and what we hold is supplying fixed assets, then its price may rise in an asymptotic manner.
Does Bitcoin really have the “business cycle” take precedence over the “halving cycle”?
Kyle Chasse: We have heard an interesting point recently.The crypto market usually talks about the “four-year cycle” and believes that Bitcoin generally runs along the “halving” rhythm.But another view is that Bitcoin is actually more like following the “business cycle” and will come to an end in the next few months.The reason why he judged this is mainly because: there is insufficient disposable funds for retail investors, slowing down consumption, and weakening employment is increasing; and once this happens, corporate profits are under pressure and the stock market is down, the overall market may experience a round of systemic decline.Do you think we will reach the end of this bull market this year, or will it continue to extend it?
Arthur Hayes:I think we are entering the “middle” of this cycle.Think about it: Trump’s style is highly populist as the president who took office again after the Biden administration (second term).He made the biggest “direct concessions to the people” move since Andrew Jackson (or more appropriately Lyndon B. Johnson, LBJ) through cash bailout checks during COVID.This is not a traditional Republican-style fiscal practice — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
This practice proves his political instinct: he is not bound by ideology in order to win elections.Winning an election means continuing to provide direct benefits to the people.He did this during the COVID period; he did it in 2017 with a massive tax cut; he will continue to do so next.Otherwise, Trump and the Republican Party will face the risk of being eliminated by voters in 2026 (midterm elections) and 2028 (presidential elections).So he knew his path very well: continue to “send money” (directly give money) and “print money”.
It is obvious that the Federal Reserve and some individuals in the US government bureaucracy have been hindering his advancement.But dominoes are being pushed down one by one— — By mid-next year, the Federal Reserve will turn completely: Powell’s position will be more consistent, and may have 4 votes from the seven directors; in addition, it can also be passedReserve interest payment and discount windowWait for unconventional fine-tuning to operate.Bessent is advancing deals with sovereign wealth funds, which may end regulatory custody, adding about $4–5 trillion in mortgage-related credit supply — —The mortgage market will allow residents to releverage housing.So, what will American consumers do if residents’ cash runs out?They will go to loans.And if I lower the price of funds (interest rate), they can borrow more.This is why “the price of funds” is crucial in this situation.
Of course, what I value more is the amount of currency.But it is understandable: even if I think the US household sector has been overdrafted and the property market is slightly overheated, if I reduce the interest rate from 4.5% to 2%, then the family will leverage, buy more stocks, swipe credit cards, change to new cars, and do a home equity loan.If you agree that the Fed is about to cut interest rates and Trump will release liquidity in the Fed’s balance sheet and mortgage market, it would be too short-sighted to just use “weak consumption” to explain the prospects.
Another thing that is often overlooked: Wells Fargo has been “parole” recently.It has been unable to expand its balance sheet for many years since the early fake account scandal.I can’t remember the details, but I remember that in mid-June or early July this year, regulation finally allowed it to expand its assets.Zoltan Pozsar (a well-known macro analyst) estimates that Wells Fargo currently has approximately $450 million in balance sheet capacity to buy U.S. bonds and other bonds.This means that the US commercial banking system has another liquidity engine.So, I don’t care about how the outside world describes the so-called “real economy”; I focus on credit, and credit will flow — ——and eventually flow to Bitcoin.
Gold and stablecoins go hand in hand: Are de-dollarization and “re-dollarization” happening simultaneously?
Arthur Hayes: I wrote an article titled “Buffalo Bill” and gave a speech on it at the WebX conference in Tokyo.My core point is: Bessent faces a problem called de-dollarization.In 2008, the U.S. government made a substantial default (which essentially chose another path) and decided to bail out the banking system rather than letting credit shrink and clear out bad debts in the system.So overseas creditors were thinking: Since the United States no longer maintains the value of currency, why do I still hold these bonds?I want to buy gold.You can see that the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves of central banks has increased for a long time since 2009.
Ultimately, the supply of resources and labor in the Southern Hemisphere and BRICS, which are the goods needed by the Western world; the era when they sell things cheaply to the United States and Western Europe is over.They will ask: Since you are devalued by the currency at a compound rate of about 8% every year, why do I have to work so hard to save such assets?I might as well buy gold instead.Therefore, Bessent will ask: Then who will take over the government bonds I need to issue?Under Trump’s tenure, the federal deficit has not declined, but has expanded (as I expected).In order to convey benefits to the people, Trump will only spend more.So who will buy these debts?No one is willing to accept it for a long time because there are duration risks, interest rate risks, and supply surges.So he couldn’t issue 5, 10, and 30 years at the scale he wanted, so he had to turn to the short-term, that is, the T-Bill (short-term Treasury bill) market.The balance of the reverse repurchase instrument (RRP) used to be around $2.5 trillion.His predecessor, Janet Yellen (or an official on his team) decided to add the issuance of T-bill (short-term Treasury bills) to “suck” that money back into the system.Starting from September 2022, this is equivalent to a “stimulus” of $2.5 trillion; at that time, against the backdrop of Powell’s continued quantitative tightening (QT) and interest rate hikes, Yellen’s approach substantially pushed up the market — — crypto, gold, and stocks rose together.But this wave is over.Next, who can pick up these T-bills?——— Bessent needs to issue every year, often trillions of dollars.
First of all, it will beEurodollar(Offshore USD) market.There are large amounts of offshore dollar stocks that are not directly monitored by the U.S. federal government, and they may be doing what the U.S. government is unwilling to do—such as financing projects that China wants to promote, rather than projects that Trump wants to promote.So why don’t they come to buy American T-bills?
My idea is that Bessent can remove the “implicit guarantee” of eurodollar deposits.Historically, when there was a problem with the banking system (outside the United States), the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department would quickly rescue, open the swap lines (swap lines) to ensure that banks such as Europe holding offshore US dollars have liquidity so as not to default.— —If this implicit guarantee is cancelled, what should I do as a foreign bank holding US dollar deposits?
I can go and hold stablecoins.Stablecoins are essentially “endorsed” by the US government: the US dollar represented by Tether and Circle anchors stablecoins, either deposit funds in regulated American commercial banks (if they are “big but not falling (TBTF), such as JPMorgan, Citibank, etc., there are implicit government guarantees), or configure T-bill.And after the 2023 regional banking crisis, we can think that almost all deposits in the U.S. banking system are actually guaranteed by government.Therefore, if I deposit $1 in the Bank of America, there will be no “lost” situation — —The government will always save the bank.If I hold a T-bill, it is a debt of the US government; the US government has a dollar printing machine that can theoretically print money at an unlimited amount and near zero cost.
If the underlying assets of the stablecoin are mandatory by law as bank deposits or T-bills (for example, through the GENIUS Act or other legislation), then my money is equivalent to being guaranteed by the U.S. government; conversely, if the implicit guarantee of offshore dollar deposits is removed, the risk is higher.You have seen European strategists worry: If Trump does not agree with their geopolitical orientation, will it cut off the dollar swap with the ECB or other central banks?Trump once spoke out and threatened similar things — — —This is indeed worthy of vigilance.
Secondly, there are a large number of people around the world who actually “want US dollars”, which is one of the reasons why Tether has become popular around the world.Tether is not that popular in the United States because Americans originally hold US dollars and have bank accounts, and US dollar transfers are relatively convenient and low-cost.However, in emerging markets in Latin America or Asia, local currencies tend to have high inflation and deposit interest rates are lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, and residents’ actual purchasing power is eroded by the banking system and politics.What they need is US dollars (if still denominated in fiat currency).However, regulators do not want you to hold the US dollar directly, they want to dilute your wealth through local currency inflation; so they restrict large foreign banks from entering and providing US dollar-denominated banking services.So what to do?
Almost everyone has a Facebook account and a Twitter/X account.Super apps of Western technology giants are likely to be “green light” to provide banking services now.You will see WhatsApp online payment, and you will also see X online payment.If local regulators complain about this, “we are losing control of residents’ funds”, because Zuckerberg, Musk, and Bezos “controlled” these funds through their respective applications ——
Then Trump will sanction them: “Don’t you let American science and technology companies operate freely in your country? Your companies operate in the United States, then we will impose 100% tariffs on you.” For example, Asian powerful politicians, the money they plunder from their own people may be in JPMorgan’s high-net-worth accounts — —I will also sanction you.The result is: unless you unconditionally allow our large technology companies to operate in your country, your availability to the US dollar will be cut off.
As a result, those in the South of the world who want a “dollar account” but are blocked by local regulation will be centrally “connected”: allocating T-bill (or other dollar assets) to them, whether it is 1%, 2%, or 3%, the yield rate is significantly better than their holdings of high-inflation currencies such as Philippine peso and Argentine peso.This is what I said about $34 trillion TAM (Total Addressable Market, which can serve the market) — ——The potential pool of funds that can flow into stablecoins.
From a geopolitical perspective, it is in their interest to Bessent and Trump to advance this way.You’ve seen them building momentum for stablecoins at a high profile.Previously, there was a report submitted to the US Treasury Department (I can’t remember the specific month), which estimated that about $2 trillion would flow into stablecoins, and explained the operating mechanism to the Treasury Department.Obviously, they believe this is beneficial to US monetary policy.Next, we will let the private sector extend the “tennis” of stablecoins globally, and these funds will flow back to purchase T-bill — — This is the ultimate goal.They don’t care about “innovation”, the core is to allow price-insensitive buyers to pick up Treasury bills.This is my overall conclusion about stablecoins.
Obviously, all this will be transmitted layer by layer to DeFi.Once I hold the stablecoin, I have the underlying building blocks of DeFi “Lego”: I can lend, leverage, trade, etc.At this time, I am also familiar with the use of digital wallets. MetaMask, Phantom and other uses in the global DeFi ecosystem will become very natural.This will also push up some of the projects I mentioned in the article, such as Ethena, EtherFi, Hyperliquid, Codex, etc.In short, this is my macro framework about the layout of stablecoins and DeFi protocols.
In the “34 trillion USD entry” scenario, stablecoins have marginalized the Federal Reserve?
Arthur Hayes: I assume that about $10 trillion in stablecoins stock will circulate in the market.Taking the protocols I showed as an example (such as Ethena), I thought that the return space was about 51 times. My logic was: investors would chase higher returns; in the context of downward US Treasury yields, they would use the synthetic dollar and use basis trading on Bitcoin to generate returns.For EtherFi, the order of magnitude I give is about 34 times: when users can use stablecoins to consume in “offline or offline payment scenarios” and banking services (those functions provided by EtherFi), the increment will be effectively taken over.
As for Hyperliquid, it is roughly 120–130 times the improvement: when a large number of users holding stablecoins want to trade on the chain, it is expected to grow into one of the largest exchanges in the world.Why do users choose on-chain transactions?Because the threshold is lower, easier to use, and high leverage and its related products are more in line with demand.I’ll probably focus here.Obviously, Bitcoin itself will perform well, but I can’t give specific numbers, which is not as good as the above track in terms of elastic amplification effect.
Kyle Chasse: You also mentioned that stablecoins may marginalize the role of the Fed. Can you explain it in detail?
Arthur Hayes: The reason why the Federal Reserve is important is that it sets short-term interest rates: setting effective federal funds rates and setting its target range; at the same time, managing interest payments (IORs), usually located below the range; and setting reverse repurchase rates (ON RRPs), usually located above the range.If the Treasury Department is issuing bonds and selling T-bills to profit-seeking private institutions, and the interest rate given by the Federal Reserve is higher than the interest rate of T-bills on my side, then the funds will go directly to the ON RRP or put the money in the bank and lend it to the Federal Reserve at the interest rate of the reserve.The result is that the Treasury Department’s bond issuance rate cannot be lower than the lower limit of the Federal Reserve range.
But if a stablecoin issuer is limited by law: you can only deposit the underlying assets into the bank (but the TBTF bank does not lack deposits, the interest is almost zero), or buy T-bill; you can’t enter ON RRP, you can’t buy other “novel” financial assets — — Because I wrote the rules into the law, you can only do these two things.
Under this framework, the short-term interest rate is determined by me: the new marginal funds no longer come from money market funds, but from stablecoin issuers.They have a large dollar position in their hands and need to make a spread, so they must accept the yield given by me (Secretary Bessent).If I think the economy needs a short-term interest rate of 2%, I’ll sell T-bill at 2%.But there will still be a nominal valid federal funds rate (assuming I can’t control the Fed directly), but market trades will fall around my set T-bill yield (like a magnitude lower than 100bp or something).
Because stablecoins are regulated to be used only to buy what I stipulate, then I can sell it to you at the price I want.Unless the Fed cooperates, this is a combination of tools that will make the Fed lose its real power.
Kyle Chasse: Matt Hougan also recently stated that stablecoins do not hurt the economy, they just take away the bank’s profits, because in DeFi, the savings side can be directly invested to the borrowing side.Do you agree with this view?
Arthur Hayes: Unless one or two commercial banks actively embrace stablecoins, I think the commercial banking system will be marginalized.This is also why it is a “big topic” whether stablecoins pay interest – the issuer can pay interest directly.Then why do I still have to put my money in JPMorgan’s account?The interest rate JPMorgan (or TBTF banks such as Citi and Wells Fargo) gives current deposits is about 1.5%-2%.The target range of federal funds rate is 4.25%–4.50%, and money market funds have higher yields.Then the result is either the depositor transfers the money to a stablecoin with two clicks, or the bank is forced to raise the price to tie the interest rate of the stablecoin and compress its own profits.
The biggest advantage of stablecoin issuers is minimalist manpower and processes: compliance and KYC automation, without the old technology stack left over from the 1990s, and without a bunch of high-paying but inefficient management.I mentioned that Tether may be the “most profitable” bank per capita in human history”: the employee size is about a hundred people, and the per capita profit may be hundreds of millions of dollars. This is actually what banks should do: absorb your funds and pay interest; and you take this complete collateral to leverage, trade, and earn more profits in the DeFi Lego system — —If you want. As a “bank”, I just need to do simple and reliable things: safely transfer your money from point A to point B. In contrast, we allow banks to do those messy businesses in TradFi, which I am very dissatisfied with.
From the perspective of “fiat currency depreciation (currency dilution)”, Bitcoin is the best performing asset in history.Yes, the S&P 500 is rising in USD, but after being converted to gold, the S&P 500 has not returned to the pre-2008 crisis highs; the housing market is also unrepaired in gold.The only ones that really perform better under gold denomination may be some of the leaders in US technology stocks.If everything is converted into Bitcoin’s pricing, other assets are almost insignificant on the chart — — —This highlights Bitcoin’s excess performance in “currency depreciation trading”.
Let’s talk about the difference between TradFi and encryption.In essence, there is no difference: TradFi investors also believe that once the situation requires it, central banks and other central banks/authorities such as the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, BOJ, ECB, PBOC, SNB will invest liquidity (print money); they also know that the typical approach is to buy bonds.Therefore, in their framework: buying 10-year US Treasury drops from 5% to 4%, and adding 30 times of leverage, you can get a considerable return — — Many macro investors (such as Ray Dalio) have been doing this long-term trading with downward interest rates.Our beliefs with TradFi are not in conflict: everyone believes in printing money; the difference is that we choose the “faster horse” (a higher elastic asset) in crypto, and Bitcoin performs best in history on this main line.
If you only stare at the window of a few months, such as asking “Why is Bitcoin not yet $150,000”, then I can only say: those who bought it half a year ago may be disappointed; but most of the people who allocated it two or three or fifty years ago now have significant returns, far exceeding the depreciation of the US dollar and other fiat currencies.Therefore, there is no need to be emotional because Bitcoin does not “set a record high” every day.S&P 500 Whether at 6,700 or other points, the price in gold is still below pre-crisis levels.Everyone needs to adjust their expectations: If you expect “buy Bitcoin, you can open Lamborghini tomorrow”, you will likely lose your position due to wrong leverage and expectations.
If a stablecoin has a trillion-dollar increment, who will be the biggest beneficiary?
Arthur Hayes: Maybe it’s Lido, and ETH staking related stuff.I would like to emphasize again that I am not a person who “dos everything”. My portfolio is very concentrated and I am very familiar with the fundamentals of my holdings.I dare not say that these will pay 1000 times the return; if you go buy a low-quality meme coin with a market value of about $5 million and then it flies into the sky, you may indeed make more money than me.
But I don’t want to take that kind of risk.I need to deploy a lot of capital on a few targets and not stare at the phone 24/7.The type of investment will affect your choice: you may say, “These targets cannot give me 1,000 times the return” — ——I agree completely.But these products — all have market fit (PMF), with thousands of users, annualized revenue in billions of dollars, and will not disappear at any time.
Kyle Chasse: I want to ask a point that I am very interested in.You mentioned HYPE when you and I chatted in Singapore (I thought I had missed it at the time; it seems to have increased by almost 2 times now).It has always attracted my attention, but I haven’t bought it yet.Judging from the current valuation of this FDV of about US$57 billion, do you think there is still a lot of room for upward trend?
Arthur Hayes: I don’t know the specific number of their current employees; the last time I talked to Jeff, there were about 10 people, and now there may be a slight increase.With my experience running large exchanges, this team’s code delivery capabilities are amazing.The Ethena team has about 20 people.These small and exquisite teams polish a product in a single point, and the delivery quality is far better than that of many centralized companies.Hyperliquid is a leveraged derivatives trading platform. It is expanding spot through the HIP-3 licensing currency listing mechanism. Currently, perpetual contracts can be listed without permission.Many protocols have made similar attempts before, dYdX is one of them, and they performed well; but unfortunately, they did not give back the real money they earned to token holders, so their token performance is so… I think Hyperliquid’s next goal is to surpass Binance.How does it go from now to “any form of the world”?Obviously it won’t be that easy, it requires a lot of work and luck.
But that’s exactly where I bet and I see it going in the right direction.The active participation of major stablecoin issuers on the USDH related proposals is enough to show Hyperliquid’s core position in the crypto trading ecosystem and has excellent prospects, while the continuous improvement of cognition will only become better.The only thing that makes me a little concerned is that there will be a huge team token unlocking in November, and it will be possible to see how the positions and structure evolve.As I said in my speech, if the massive expansion of the stablecoin I envisioned, my target range for 2028 is more than 100 times.This is why I said I was bullish on HYPE on stage.
If about $10 trillion in the stablecoin ends up flowing into, Hyperliquid is expected to grow into one of the largest trading platforms in the world.As for the problem of “currency depreciation” — —Its crux of the problem is that it forces those who do not have a large amount of financial assets to be speculators.Because they will think: I can’t afford to buy a house, I can’t afford a whole Bitcoin, I can’t do the things I want to do.
But there is a leveraged trading platform there — —As long as I bet on a shitcoin (copy token), or pick a meme stock in the stock market of this “American casino”, I may be able to buy a car and pay off the student loan for the “worthless” degree.This is extremely bad for society, but the people in power have chosen to build such a system, and most people follow it.
Is the DAT mode this year likely to be the fuse for the “FTX moment”
Arthur Hayes: The information that can be disclosed is that I have served as an advisor to a Solana ecosystem-related project, so I instinctively believe that DAT’s “meta-narrative” will continue to evolve in TradFi’s corporate financial circle.However, I think there will be only one or two winners in the track of each mainstream asset.On the Bitcoin track, micro strategy is already there.It is very difficult to be a “Bitcoin DAT” and surpass micro-strategy.There are also attempts such as Block.one on the market, but it is not easy to shake Michael Saylor.On the ETH track, there are Bitmine, etc.; on the Solana track, there are Upexi and other projects; almost any mainstream chain will be selected, and corresponding DAT model companies will appear.
For investors, the key is to see this set of “company financial alchemy”. If I push the stock price, trading volume, and liquidity to a high enough level, I can open a complete set of institutional funding channels (allow me to issue/sell debt and equity derivatives).The higher the stock price and the larger the “narrative”, the more “diversified” the capital structure tools I can design, thus continuously “rolling” more Bitcoin or other targets into the balance sheet, thereby increasing shareholder equity.This is a game about scale, distribution and channel.
Michael Saylor has proven that there are a large number of fund managers with index funds who want to obtain Bitcoin’s risk fluctuations and excellent risk-reward ratios, but they cannot buy Bitcoin ETFs (under many investment advisors/committees, they are considered currency or commodity and are not within the scope of authorization); they cannot host Bitcoin themselves (not within their functions/processes).So they can only buy stocks of listed companies.If you can push a listed company with underlying crypto assets into their “compliance basket”, they will spend $2/$3/$10 to purchase $1’s net assets — —This is not “irrational”, they are just following the rules.But in the end, only one or two players in each track can win.
Of course, newer issuers will emerge later in the cycle, which will appeal to more radical corporate financial instruments to pursue higher stock price elasticity.When prices fall, these practices will backfire.I judge that there will be a large DAT accident at the bottom of this cycle: FTX exploded at the bottom stage, and BlockFi also had problems at the bottom, such as Bitcoin’s 70% retracement from $1,000,000.By then, these companies will fail, and their stocks or bonds may be sold at huge discounts, providing the opportunity to “buy at the bottom – compress discount – unlock crypto assets in the vault.”
From a historical perspective, if the market sentiment in Q4 is extremely excited, how will it face it?
Arthur Hayes: What I care most about is the market’s expectations and path for “printing money”.In my opinion, Trump has not actually started to make efforts; I think he will put the policy “puzzle” in line before mid-2026, thereby greatly stimulating the US economy.
The key lies in: how the market’s “foresight pricing” for this round of money printing.If I judge that the market’s expectations of the scale of printing money that Trump can use are too crazy, then I will reduce my position appropriately.Therefore, I do not have a specific price target, but I look more at a somatosensory threshold of “whether the expectation is too high or too low”.I am now writing an article with the theme of “The Euro crash caused by a French default”.There are other events in the global market that may continue to strengthen the logic of “must print money”.At the same time, we are in the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order; politicians tend to print money and appease under the “change”.Based on these factors, I have a very optimistic judgment on the scale of printing money before the end of this year.
Next, we need to look at: the expectations of crypto ecosystem and macro funds for this main line.I think the market generally underestimates the upward space of risky assets such as equity and encryption.Governments are in great need to print money — —Yes, the end of the cycle may lead to some kind of “doomsday liquidation”, but I don’t think we have reached that stage.Governments of various countries have just regained their impulse to “print money”: buying military industry, giving benefits to the people, etc.
China is fighting deflation and taking piecemeal stimulus; I think it will eventually join the action.Japan, Europe, and the United States have to do this, and it is likely to be done simultaneously.At the same time, AI and robots will bring a deflationary impact. If employment is under pressure and debts still need to be paid, the traditional partial reserve banking system may be “forced to the corner” and eventually have to turn to higher reserves and continue printing money to maintain stability in the banking system — ——because the state will not allow systemic bankruptcy.
We are facing a social choice.Historical experience shows that the government’s first choice is often: print money first.So, I think we are just in the “first game” of this huge change — — — about how we reorganize the global economy and society.Therefore, I do not agree with the “four-year cycle”.Under this macro superposition, I think the market has the ability to attack all the way, pushing Bitcoin to a range of 150,000, 170,000, or even 200,000 US dollars — — — — — — — — — — — — — — just what I have to do with the current and the end of this era.
