jakiro
Author: Stacy Muur Source: @stacymuur Translation: Shan Oppa, Bitchain Vision
In 2016, when I first came into contact with Web3, I was attracted by this new economic model.At that time, I bought my first bitcoin for $600 and sold it for $1,000, considering myself a shrewd investor.I earned incentives on Steemit, participated in early protocols as a contributor, and introduced friends to the cryptocurrency world.But over time, I realized that I was just lucky and that I was making money not because of technology or knowledge.
I also lost a lot of money during this process.I was trapped in retaliatory trading, had scams, failed to hedge risks, and failed to make profits at the right time.
Today, I want to share some lessons learned from many years of research, analysis and reflection in Web3.If you read carefully, I believe these experiences can be your advantage.
1. Market promotes speculation
This month I published an article titled “The Hidden Power of Forecasting Markets: The Touchstone of the World”, which outlines Delphi’s latest report on the Forecasting Markets.Highly recommended reading, this is one of the best Delphi reports I have ever seen.
A passage from vibhu is quoted in the report:
The rules of CT (Crypto Twitter) are very simple:
When the token price rises, it is discussed, analyzed, philosophized, posted to Twitter space, celebrated, received venture capital and is called the representative of the future;
When the token price falls, it is considered a scam, a bottomless pit, dead, derogated, cancelled, and everyone should go to jail.
This phenomenon does exist.Once the token goes live, interest in a certain agreement or category depends directly on its price movement.We have observed this many times in SOL, AVAX, SUI meme coins, DePIN tokens, and even Bitcoin.
For many years, I have avoided buying tokens when prices rise, fearing that I will take over at a high level.Now I understand that buying assets that have just begun to rise and have not been hotly discussed on platforms like Reddit or X (Twitter) is usually easier to make a profit.
2. Venture capital favors marketization
Friends who follow the content of my X platform know that I often mention that fundamentals and benefits are the key to evaluating the sustainability of the protocol and the matching of the product market.
But recently when I was studying the comparison between Web2 companies and Web3 brands, I realized one important thing:
Venture capital invests in Web3 projects not because of expected profits.
They know you will buy these tokens at a higher Fully Dilution Valuation (FDV) in Token Generation Event (TGE).
What venture capital values is not the market fit of products, but the speculation and marketization.They invest in concepts and keywords that are convenient for marketing. The longer the marketization cycle, the higher the FDV.
This model has led to the “low circulation, high FDV” phenomenon of many new primary tokens issuances.Most of these companies have no real profits, and the token supply will be fully unlocked even before their annual revenue reaches 1/10 of FDV.
Core lessons?Unfortunately, market narrative is far more important than fundamentals.
3. You have no “personal opinion”
Here is a simple test: If I invited you to join the MegaETH pre-sale, would you agree?Even if it’s just one-way communication, if you’ve heard of MegaETH, the answer is probably “will”.
This is not surprising.MegaETH is backed by Buterin and the discussion is very hot, and many people call it “the next big event in Ethereum expansion.”
But if you have never heard of MegaETH and have no well-known supporters, will you still join?
Your perception is affected, even if you don’t realize it.Any discussion about it will shape your perception, even if you are not reading the content in depth.
Therefore, as a marketer, I usually ask each blogger to promote the brand multiple times when planning events.Our way of thinking is interesting: the first mention is often overlooked, the second time there is a 60% chance of being ignored, and the third time there is only a 20% chance of being ignored.
The more common things are on the timeline, the more interest they can arouse.When you frequently see something but don’t participate, you will have “Fear of Missing” (FOMO).
Your “opinions”—all beliefs, opinions and even criticism—actually reflects what you consume.
4. You cannot participate in all narratives at the same time
Web3 has huge amount of information: traders, passive income seekers, airdrop hunters, early protocol researchers, meme coin fanatics, fundamental analysts, etc. Everyone outputs information in the same data center, as well as project news and analysisReport.
The information explosion is overwhelming, and if you try to participate in every project, you will find it difficult to invest efficiently.
I am not afraid of people who have practiced ten thousand moves once, but I am afraid of people who have practiced ten thousand moves once.——Bruce Lee
The torrent of information often makes people feel underexposed.I know some skilled perpetual contract traders who lost money in the meme coin craze – they are good at trading perpetual contracts, but they are not good at meme coin.
Best strategy?Proficient in the areas you are best at, and at the same time, you are exposed to some areas you hope to improve in the long term.
In order to deal with the feeling of being exposed, I adopted the strategy of not participating in meme currency trading on the first day, which is too time-consuming.Every time I see a post about early meme coins or new million dollar trading strategies, I will click on the “Three Dots” in the upper right corner of the tweet and select “Not Interested in this post”.This will really significantly optimize your timeline, believe me.
5. Loss is a catalyst for growth
Separating emotions from reason and avoiding emotions fluctuations due to transaction results is a difficult thing – but if it is always the case, you are a gambler, not an investor.
Every mistake and loss are opportunities for growth.Record and analyze them, timestamp them, and make plans for the next step.This method is the best way to change from a gambler’s mentality to an investor’s mentality.
Remember: there are profit patterns in every situation, but there are very few cases of losses.Analyze and record each loss significantly reduces the likelihood of future losses.
When I worked in a hedge fund in 2020, I observed how professional traders operate: they would do a lot of data analysis before trading, but would also conduct in-depth research when exiting—whether the result was win or lose.
6. Master options trading
In the Web3 field, the trading volume of options trading is only a small part of the futures market.This is mainly because many market participants lack relevant experience, which is in sharp contrast to traditional markets.
If you are an active trader, it is crucial to study options trading.Although options trading may seem a bit complicated at the beginning, it is absolutely worth the money to master them.In just one week or so, you can explore various options hedging strategies and find the right method for you.
Options can significantly reduce losses.Although losses are inevitable, when holding positions are hedged, you will be more calm when you bear them.
I hope these experiences can give you some inspiration.If you apply them to your daily practice, I believe your efficiency will be improved.
Find high-quality data, tap original insights, and master the areas you are passionate about.I firmly believe that the future of Web3 is bright.It is never too late to learn, analyze and explore.
