jakiro
Author: Jasper De Maere, Source: Wintermute, Compiler: Shaw Bitcoin Vision
Key takeaways
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Bitcoin prices continue to correlate with stock market movements.The correlation remains high, but Bitcoin reacts more strongly to Nasdaq declines than increases.
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Bitcoin’s performance is structurally negative in 2025.Bitcoin fell more when the stock market fell and rose less when it rose, a pattern that finally appeared in the 2022 bear market.
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This usually happens near the bottom, not the top.This current asymmetry suggests market weakness rather than frenzy, which suggests that Bitcoin prices are holding up quite well despite this dynamic.
performance bias
Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 remains high (around 0.8).Although the two are closely related,But Bitcoin doesn’t appear to be sharing any of the stock market’s gains, only fluctuating in tandem with the stock market when it falls.
This is not a loss of correlation, but a manifestation of asymmetry, namely Bitcoin’s uneven response to risk.When the stock market rises, Bitcoin reacts more slowly; when the stock market falls, Bitcoin tends to move violently in the same direction.
We measure this relationship by the performance deviation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index, that is, how much greater Bitcoin’s decline on a Nasdaq falling day is compared to its rise on a rising day.
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Positive skewness = Bitcoin leads risk.Bitcoin has outperformed, attracting early inflows in an environment of heightened risk appetite.
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Negative Skewness = Bitcoin Risk Lag.Bitcoin underperformed, reacting more to macro risk aversion than driving it.
Currently, this deviation is significantly negative, indicating that Bitcoin is still trading as a high beta on risk sentiment, but only when the trend is negative.
Two key observations:
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asymmetry reduction—The performance differential (i.e. asymmetry) between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 is shrinking over time, reflecting Bitcoin’s maturation as a macro asset.
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Increased asymmetry—The 365-day rolling cycle pain gap (below) reached its highest level since the last bear market (late 2022), exactly one year after Bitcoin peaked.
This structural negative performance bias is particularly salient given Bitcoin’s current price levels.This level of negative asymmetry typically occurs when market sentiment subsides, and market sentiment has always been a reflection of price trends.
Why is this happening now?
While there are many other potential factors contributing to this condition, two stand out:
Market attention turns to stocks
For much of 2025, funds that would normally go to the cryptocurrency space, including new token issuances, infrastructure upgrades, and retail participation, have been diverted to the stock market.Large technology stock companies have become the focus of institutions and retail investors looking for high beta coefficients/high growth.Compared with 2020-2021,Most of the new risk appetite funds flowed into Nasdaq rather than digital assets.
This focus means that Bitcoin still suffers when global risk sentiment shifts, but benefits disproportionately when optimism returns.It is more like a “high beta tail” of macro risk than an independent narrative. The beta coefficient for downside risk still exists, but the narrative premium for the upside does not..
liquidity position
The second part is structural factors.Current cryptocurrency liquidity conditions differ from previous risk cycles.Stablecoin issuance has leveled off, exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows have slowed, and market depth across exchanges has yet to return to early 2024 levels.This vulnerability can amplify negative reactions during stock market corrections.The result is:Bitcoin’s decline participation remains higher than advance participation, amplifying this performance bias.
Summary
Looking at correlations alone doesn’t tell the whole story, it can only show direction, not intensity.Bitcoin remains a macro asset, whose transactions are affected by changes in liquidity and positions.
Judging from historical data, this negative asymmetry usually does not appear near the top, but near the bottom..When Bitcoin falls more when the stock market performs poorly than it rises when the stock market performs well, it usually indicates market weakness, not strength.While this is only part of the reason, the current performance divergence of the Bitcoin/NASDAQ index suggests that Bitcoin investors are somewhat fatigued and have been doing so for some time.Despite this,Given that Bitcoin has hit all-time highs multiple times and is less than 20% from the top, this suggests that Bitcoin’s support is pretty good.
