jakiro
Author: Haotian; Source: X, @tmel0211
When everyone is caring about the “financial alchemy” DAT model on Wall Street, some people have thought about it without:Are DATs turning a backward in history?The following share some views:
Let’s first study what are DAT, PS, PE, PN…
DAT: (Digital Asset Treasury), simply put it, issuing stocks to investors to raise funds, and then using the raised money to purchase crypto assets (BTC, ETH, etc.), forming a reserve fund bank, ideally reaching a forward flywheel of issuing shares ->Buy coins->Send more shares and buy more coins;
I won’t go into details about other concepts, from the PE (price to earnings ratio, how much is paid for every 1 yuan of profit, which one is value investment), PS (price to sales ratio, how much is paid for every 1 yuan of revenue, the so-called “price to dream rate”), to the PN (Price to Narrative price and singularity ratio, how much is paid for a story, pure speculation)..
The detailed views are as follows, similar or shocking are for reference only:
1) DATs are not “financial innovation”, but more like the “regulatory arbitrage” channel set up by Wall Street to circumvent cryptocurrency regulation.
However, since the implementation of Project Crypto and stablecoin bills such as GENIUS and CLARITY led by Paul Atkins, this fierce DATs boom seems to be a trend that has been launched by a number of US shell companies on Wall Street to imitate Micro Strategy’s success story, but I think it is actually the last carnival before the unofficial compliance channel narrows. Therefore, the Fomo wave of DATs will inevitably be gradually disenchanted under the dual control of its own bubble crack and government supervision pressure;
2) The “financial alchemy” of DATs seems magical, but in fact it is a typical “reflexive” trap.
Logic is actually many people know that MicroStrategy’s flywheel “issuing stocks → buying coins → rising coins → selling more stocks” looks beautiful, and in fact it is also beautiful, but under the amplification effect of a group of followers, the shortcomings of this “reflexive system” will also be accelerated: the positive cycle can indeed amplify returns, but once it reverses, it will collapse in a spiral manner.
Especially when the premium of mNAV (market net asset value) disappears or even turns to a discount, the entire model fails instantly – you can’t issue stocks, buy coins, and you may be forced to sell coins;
3) DATs reflect the financial harvester genes of Wall Street who are good at complicating simple problems and ultimately implementing a “dimensionality reduction strike”.
Putting aside the regulatory arbitrage factors, we won’t mention the historical factors of MSTR. However, under the background of ETFs such as BTC and ETH, as well as various crypto-friendly governments and policies, if you want to buy Bitcoin, you can buy it directly, package it into an institutional-level digital asset allocation strategy, and then concoct a new concept of DATs.
In fact, it is to use the “complexity” of the intermediate market cognitive poor, educational time cost, compliance path complexity and other “complexity” to sell structured products to the market. Although DATs are not as radical as historical CDO (debt mortgage securities), CDS (credit default swap) and other products, they have the same outcome;
4) DATs are essentially a historical reversal of the valuation system, and have brought cryptocurrencies back from the mature track of PS/PE to the wilderness of PN.
The Crypto market has undergone several cycles of development and evolution, from 2017 years of pure concept hype, to the DeFi era, viewing TVL and protocol revenue (PS thinking), until some projects start dividend repurchase (PE thinking), and PMF that everyone frequently mentions, the whole process is actually on the path of maturity.
But as soon as the DATs craze came, it brought everyone to Price to Narrative, paying for stories and concepts, isn’t this a reversal of Tiangang’s history?In the short term, the indigenous people in the venue may not care. After all, they can indeed make real hot money, but in the long term, it is equivalent to adding a lot of uncertainty;
above.
Having said that, the wild path of DATs may really be successful, but we can’t expect that off-market buy orders will lead to a super bull market.In my opinion, the real Pandora’s box is a new way of playing “on-chain leverage” that DATs may trigger..
To put it bluntly, it is to connect Wall Street’s leverage game with the composability of DeFi, and it is responsible for incremental funds and endorsement off the market, and it focuses on speculation and leverage amplification on the market, especiallyCrypto natives who are eager to make a miracle on Wall Street must not ignore the innovative magic of pure Crypto infield.
