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Author: Daniel Ramirez-EscUdero, Cointelegraph; Compilation: Deng Tong, Bit Chain Vision Realm
As people are more and more speculated, the upcoming president Donald Trump may sign an administrative order to announce the Bitcoin reserve on the first day, or establish a reserve through legislation during his term. Many people want toKnowing whether this will lead to the super cycle of cryptocurrencies.
Since Cynthia Lummis, Cynthia Lummis, has proposed a similar proposal in Texas and Pennsylvania since proposed the Bitcoin Reserve Act earlier this year.According to reports, Russia, Thailand and Germany are considering their proposals, which has further increased pressure.
If governments of various countries compete for Bitcoin inventory, will we bid farewell to the four-year prosperity of cryptocurrency prices-Xiaojiao cycle?
Iliya Kalchev, an analyst of cryptocurrency loan agency NEXO, believes that“The Bitcoin Reserve Act may be a milestone moment of Bitcoin, marking its” recognized as a legal global financial instrument. “
“Each bitcoin cycle has a narrative, trying to promote the idea of ’this round of different”. The conditions have never been so ideal. There is never a US president who supports cryptocurrencies in the field of cryptocurrencies to control the Senate and Congress. “
The “Bitcoin Act 2024” proposed by Lummis will enable the U.S. government to include Bitcoin as a reserve asset in its state treasury, purchase 200,000 bitcoin per year within five years, accumulate 1 million bitcoin, and hold at least 20 years.
Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers (Jack Mallers) believes,Trump “may issue administrative orders to buy Bitcoin on the first day”Although he warns that this is not the same as buying 1 million Bitcoin.
Dennis Porter, co -founder of Satoshi Act Fund, who supports Bitcoin’s US policy billTrump is exploring the strategic reserve of Bitcoin through administrative orders.
Dennis Potter announced that Trump is studying an administrative order of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.Source: Dennis Potter
So far, Trump’s team has not directly confirmed the statement about administrative orders, but Trump was asked on CNBC whether the United States would establish a BTC reserves similar to petroleum reserves (this may mean legislation).
However, administrative orders lack stability because subsequent presidents often overthrow such commands.Ensuring the long -term future of the Bitcoin strategic reserve is to obtain legislation with most support.
Due to the dominant position of the Republican Party and the majority of the Senate, the Bitcoin supporter in the Trump team has a solid foundation to promote the Lummis bill.However, only a small number of Republican rebels may be affected by gradual anger because of giving government wealth to Bitcoin supporters, which will derail the bill.
After the 2024 election, the results of the US Senate and Congress.Source: Associated Press
“Stop comparing this cycle with the previous cycle”
Earlier this month, Alex Krüger, the founder of Economist and Macro Digital Asset Consulting Company, said, saidThe election results made him believe that “Bitcoin is likely to be in a super cycle.”
He believes,Bitcoin’s unique situation can be compared with gold. At that time, former US President Richard Nixon allowed the United States to leave the Golden System and ended the Bretton Forest system. The price of gold soared from $ 35 per ounce in 1971 to 850 US dollars in 1981Essence
Krüger does not rule out the possibility of Bitcoin experience a bear market like a cycle in the past.However, he urged cryptocurrency investors to “stop comparing this cycle with the previous cycle” because this time may be different.
Trump’s action so far undoubtedly shows a government that is beneficial to the future.After his resignation of Gary Gensler, he nominated Paul Atkins, who supported cryptocurrencies and supporting the relaxation supervision as the chairman of the Securities Exchange Commission.
He also nominated Scott Bessent, who supports cryptocurrencies as the Minister of Finance and designated PayPal’s former chief operating officer David Sacks as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency Solk, responsible for the cryptocurrency industryDevelop a clear legal framework.
Super cycle theory has never had super results
However, the concept of “this cycle is different” has appeared in each Bitcoin bull market in the past, and each time has received support from mainstream and institutions.
exist2013-2014During the bull market, the ultra -cyclical theory has been supported by Bitcoin as a alternative as a legal currency.
exist2017-2018During the year cycle, the rapid appreciation of prices is considered to be a sign used in mainstream finance, and it is also the beginning of Bitcoin’s mainstream acceptance. The interest of institutions will flourish.
exist2020-2021During the year cycle, when technology companies such as Microslate, Square and Tesla entered the Bitcoin market, they believed that many technology -related companies would also follow suit.
The price of Bitcoin showed its peak and low in the previous cycle.Source: caleb & amp; brown
However, in each cycle, the narrative of the super -cycle was not realized, which eventually caused prices to plummet, and the supporters were destroyed when entering the long -term bear market.
The co -founder of Sanjian Capital SU ZHU is the most famous supporter of the super cyclical theory since 2021. He believes that the crypto market will continue to be in a bull market without a continuous bear market. Bitcoin will eventually reach a peak of $ 5 million.
Of course, the three arrows borrowed money, as if the ultra -cyclical theory was real. When it was finally liquidated, the market value of the cryptocurrency fell by nearly 50%after the news came out.The bankruptcy and financial difficulties of the loan.
Therefore, the super cycle is a dangerous theory that allows you to keep your life’s savings on it.
For Chris Brunsike, a partner of venture capital company Placeholder and the head of the former blockchain product, the Bitcoin super cycle is just a myth.
“Super cycle is undoubtedly a collective illusion.”
However, considering the support of the President of the United States, the results of the US election overwhelmed the unprecedented and extremely bullish conditions for Bitcoin. The US President seems to be fulfilled its promise of supporting cryptocurrencies, including the US Bitcoin will never be sold.Bitcoin in inventory.
The potential Global Domino brand effect
If the Bitcoin Reserve Act is passed, it may cause a global coin stock competitionOther countries will also follow suit to avoid falling behind.
Lawyer George S. Georgiades In 2016, from providing a financing consulting to Wall Street, he cooperated with the cryptocurrency industry. He told Cointelegraph,The Bitcoin reserve bill “may marked the turning point adopted by Bitcoin in the world”, and may “trigger other incidents” and private institutions have followed suit to promote widespread adoption and enhance market liquidity.”
Basel Ismail, CEO of BlockCircle, agreed on this and said that the approval will be “one of the most optimistic events in the history of cryptocurrencies” because “it will trigger a competition for Bitcoin as much as possible.”
“Other countries will not have the right to speak, and they will be forced to take action. Either to turn and compete, or die.”
He believes“Most of the countries of the 20th Group will follow and establish their own reserve libraries.”
G20 map in 2024.Red: G20, purple: EU representative country, green: African alliance represents the country.Yellow: A permanent invited country.Source: Wikipedia Encyclopedia
Chris Dunn, a senior crypto investor and Bitcoin educator, pointedThis FOMO -based competitive purchase boom may completely change the current crypto market cycle.
“If the United States or other major economic powers begin to accumulate Bitcoin, Bitcoin may trigger FOMO, which may cause market cycle and supply and demand dynamics, which is different from any situation we have seen so far.”
The president of OKX Exchange pointed out that other countries may have prepared for such competitions.
“Game theory is likely to have played quietly.”
However, ISMAIL said,Most Bitcoin purchases will be completed through off -site brokers and settled in the form of large transactions. Therefore, “it may not have a direct impact on the price of Bitcoin”, but it will create a long -term impact.The long -lasting demand power will eventually promote the price of Bitcoin.
A new wave of cryptocurrency investors may change the dynamic of the cryptocurrency market
If various countries become market buyers, the Bitcoin market may change fundamental changes.A new wave of new investors from the Global Financial Center will pour into the cryptocurrency market to change market dynamics, psychology and response to certain events.
NEXO analyst Kalchev said that although the four -year reduction cycle of Bitcoin’s well -known four -year reduction cycle is still speculated, some dynamics may change.
Bitcoin is a unique market. So far, it is promoted by retail trading, and the price is highly sensitive to the market psychology.The emergence of new investors may change the market dynamics and change the historical cycle.
ISMail believes that “the behavior of investors in stock markets will be different from retail investors with excessive response.”Institutional investors have strong funds and advanced risk management strategies, which enables them to treat Bitcoin in a way that is different from retail investors.
“Over time, the participation of Wall Street may help build a more stable and less response market environment.”
Stability is another statement of less volatility, which logically means that the bear market will not be as radical as the past cycle.
Georgiades believes,“The price cycle will continue”, but “the continuous demand of large buyers such as the United States may reduce volatility and fluctuations we have witnessed in the past cycle.”
ISMail also pointed out that the performance of the Bitcoin market is different from the previous four -year cycle.At the current cycle, the price of Bitcoin fell below the historical high (ATH) of the previous cycle.
“The four -year cycle has now been exposed and broken many times.”
Bitcoin has only experienced four halves so far, and nearly thirty halves have not yet occurred.Kalchev said: “It is difficult to imagine that all these halves will follow the same predictable four -year model,” especially when a wider macroeconomic and political factors (such as central bank policies and regulatory development) are more in the market trajectory of Bitcoin.When a major influence.
Kalchev believes that the price trend of Bitcoin will no longer be affected by internal mechanisms such as halving, and more affected by external factors, such as institutions adopting and geopolitical incidents.
