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Source: Zhou Ziheng
The U.S. presidential election is about to be held on November 5 and is now entering a critical period. Due to fierce election competition, the presidential campaign is vigilant about the surprises that will be brought about in October.
The U.S. Presidential Election Dictionary defines “October Accident” as a major political or economic event or political or moral scandal that undermines the character of a U.S. presidential candidate, usually in October, where the campaign is most intense.
In an era of constant U.S. news coverage and pursuing media sensation twenty-four hours a day, this unexpected surprise could tilt the balance of the election in a direction that favors one of the candidates, thus making him the helm of the White House.people.
One of the most famous “October accidents” in previous U.S. presidential elections was the tape of former al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who was broadcast to the world by Al Jazeera News Channel. This news competition isFor the first time in modern history, the dominance of Western media over global news was broken.
In the letter, bin Laden said the attacks were the result of U.S. Middle East policy, but he did not threaten to launch further attacks.Despite the surprise timing of the release, and days before the election, the video is seen as strengthening President George W. Bush, who has been relying on a firm image of the leader in the fight against terrorism.
The message has heightened concerns among American voters about the threat of terrorism, which helped strengthen support for Bush but sacrificed his rival John Kerry, who is seen as less confident in the field.
Bin Laden’s tape is released as Democratic candidate John Kerry is about to defeat his opponent, then-President George W. Bush, which tilts the balance of victory to the latter, reminding American voters of New York City on September 11and the serious incidents of the attacks in Washington, D.C. and the importance of continuing the war on terror.
Kerry lost the presidential campaign after a hunted man posted an unreliable video in a cave in the Torabola Mountains in Afghanistan.
Hillary Clinton lost the election because of a message
Hillary Clinton is still prosecuting former FBI Director James Comey’s 2016 election defeat, when he quickly sent a message to congressional leaders informing them of what Hillary Clinton lost during his tenure as Secretary of StateA large number of private emails have been discovered.
The October accident that year reminded American voters of suspicion by then Republican candidate Donald Trump that Hillary Clinton was an unreliable person in keeping state secrets.
It is worth noting here that former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton wrote an article this week warning the Harris campaign that the October election surprise had a serious impact on the election results.
Hillary Clinton will never forget the October accident, and after she was just one step away from the White House, she lost the power to enter the White House.Strangely, Hillary Clinton leaked a famous video that revealed Donald Trump in October of the same year before the 2016 campaign, in which the latter admitted that he had the ability as long as he was a star in American society.Get whatever woman he wants.
However, media leaks against Trump before the election did not cause any change in the results, because Trump has a solid electoral basis and will not be subject to support allegations of moral bias or judicial convictions against himBe hurt or discouraged, as it happened later.
Trump has been boasting about his voter base’s support for him without any wavering, even seeing him — as he claimed in a famous speech — killing people on an ancient New York street at four a.m.
Limited terrorist attacks or widespread political violence processes in the United States before or during the election remain one of the unexpected events in the election, which undoubtedly affects the victory balance tilting in the direction that favors a certain candidate.
Trump has benefited greatly from the failure of July’s assassination. If President Biden had not suddenly withdrawn from the competition stage and left a path to run for his deputy Harris, it would have greatly increased him.Opportunity to win elections.
However, in addition to the unexpected events in October, sometimes serious economic crises (such as the 2008 recession, the collapse of the financial system of the world’s largest investment financial company, and the intensification of the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic)It will affect the process of the US presidential election.
Then-Presidential candidates Obama and Biden took advantage of the two global crises to win election victories against Republican opponents in the 2008 and 2020 elections, respectively.
Netanyahu, Iran and October accident
The likelihood of events related to the Middle East and Gaza wars in October remains high due to escalating violence in Gaza and Lebanon and Netanyahu’s hope to achieve his own goals in the region, perhaps in these ongoing elections.
After Netanyahu congratulates President Biden on his calmness after the 2020 U.S. election, Netanyahu may also want to provide quality services to Trump, help him win the election and improve with him personallyrelation.
Netanyahu knows well that after the US election, due to the increasing pressure from the world and the United States, he is not suitable to attack Iran, so Netanyahu is likely to attack Iranian targets before the US election.
Netanyahu completely ignored all the near-red lines drawn by the Biden administration in a arrogant way, including attacks on Rafah City, continuing to starve Palestinians in Gaza and violate their rights, and whenever Biden takes steps to slow the areaWhen the situation escalates, Netanyahu will respond to these measures by attacks, which will exacerbate the raging fires in the region.
Israel’s complete hegemony in the Middle East remains a strategic goal of the Netanyahu government, which its government’s extremist view on the possibility of current war reinforces.
Although the Secretary of Defense and Secretary of State sent a letter to the Netanyahu government two days ago calling on it to make room for humanitarian aid to deliver hungry and displaced people in Gaza, the Netanyahu government will not care about thisThe threatening tone in the latest information and will ignore and downplay it like the threats that were previously in the United States.
The Netanyahu administration will attack Iran earlier, perhaps before the presidential election, so that the next U.S. government will launch a war against Iran, which is fighting against Israel for control of the Middle East.
There is no doubt that the world is witnessing terrible polar discord, economic crises and extremely high inflation rates, given the elections that the United States has never experienced before, and regional and international tensions that will shape the character of future international relations.An October accident (if it happens) will be revealed.
Perhaps former President Trump will benefit the most from the October surprise, and the Harris campaign is preparing to deal with it.
Jamal Qasim is an associate professor of Middle East Studies and Political Science at Grand Canyon State University. He received his PhD in Political Science from Texas Tech University and serves as an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the school.He has also served as a visiting professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Beloit College.
