jakiro
Author: Jack Inabinet, Bankless; Compilation: 0xjs@作 作 作 作 作 作
People’s interest in Polymarket, a Polygon prediction market, has never been so high.
The platform allows traders to create markets around countless “yes” or “no” results. The platform has caused a sensation in chaotic and turbulent US presidential elections.In the past few months, traders hoped to make money by predicting which candidates would win. They bet hundreds of millions of dollars on the platform and pushed Polymarket’s business indicators and popularity to a record high.
No doubt,PolyMarket has achieved incredible success this year, but the nine major forecast markets are related to the presidential electionCan it maintain this momentum and completely change the way of prosperity of fair information in the AI era?
Today, let’s discuss the future of cryptocurrencies after the election.
The predictable market can cause guessing almost anything.
As the betters are risky to invest their capital into these markets, many encrypted idealists regard the predicted market as an excellent arbitrator, and believe that they will continue to develop and penetrate into the mainstream, becoming the ultimate source of justice.
However, although predicting the market is often considered a precious mechanism of speculation and hedging, limited market demand makes this function difficult to achieve in reality.
Although the infrastructure that does not need to be permitted can provide accurate information in some cases, these markets lack an important combination of savings (SAVER), gamblers and smart people who keep the development momentum.
1. Due to its zero -harmony nature, they will not get continuous passive capital inflows from the savings, bonds and cryptocurrencies, which makes it difficult to generate returns in the long run without advantages.
2. Of course, gamblers like to bet through PolyMarket, but these users are not interested in most available markets in PolyMarket, because these markets lack dopamine stimulus due to non -instant payment and niche themes.
3. Without the continuous investment flow from these two key characters, small -scale markets will make smart people with advantages (such as market merchants) unable to make profit, to correct prices and promote the market to reality, thereby destroying their promises that they promiseProvide accurate insight into each market.
Therefore, PolyMarket does make it easier for ordinary people to observe the probability of an event accurately, but it is undeniable that the protocol is limited by limited liquidity and profitable profitable on -market extraction.
Potential market participants may not speculate in the market of “Is the Cannabis Ban Sales During the 2024?”, Because the liquidity of the market is only hundreds of dollars, and the difference between the price or not is 15 cedaries.Divided, therefore, trading stocks related to the industry may be a better choice.
Theoretically, people can “hedge” the investment portfolio of the currency market through PolyMarket to prevent the Federal Reserve from the impact of interest rate cuts at the July meeting. However, this hedge is best to use existing federal fund futures derivativeIt reflects that these derivatives provide deeper liquidity and higher capital efficiency through leverage.
Although it is a praised goal to provide pure knowledge to anyone through a financial incentive forecasting market, but due to the lack of demand in the market and the intention of American regulators to crack down on their leading political election contracts, PolyMarket is achieving this.The use of class use cases is facing a difficult path.
It is undeniable that as long as the cryptocurrency exists, PolyMarket will attract speculators, but predict the market that does not seem to have the ideal effect that it adheres to.
Polymarket has achieved rare success during the cycle of the absence of retail investors.However, many people predict that after the U.S. election in November, the platform will have a large scale, so it is difficult to bet whether they will expand infinitely.
