jakiro
Author: Haotian
Based on Ethereum’s technology roadmap for the next two years, we share several “technical breakthroughs” that may…the directions to support prices (E Guard Special):
1) zkEVM layer1 integration
Implementation timeline: Complete the main network deployment from Q4 to Q2 2025;
Technical Objectives:
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99% of the blocks complete verification within 10 seconds;
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Zero-knowledge proof verification cost reduction by 80%;
Realization significance:
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The market share of stablecoins such as USDC and USDT on the Ethereum main chain will further expand, and the daily Gas consumption will increase accordingly, directly promoting ETH deflation;
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zkEVM zero-knowledge proof technology provides compliance and privacy protection for traditional financial institutions, and large-scale DeFi application scenarios of institutions are expected to be activated;
2) RISC-V implements a new architecture
Implementation timeline: R&D will begin in the second half of 2025, and will be progressed slowly in stages from 2026 to 2030;
Technical Objectives:
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Smart contract execution efficiency is improved by 3-5 times;
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Gas cost reduction by 50-70%;
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The open source instruction set architecture replaces current EVM and is better compatible with modern hardware acceleration technologies;
Realization significance:
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The magnitude improvement of execution performance will give birth to new application scenarios, such as: high-frequency trading, real-time gaming, AI reasoning, small payment, micro-transactions, etc.;
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Lower Gas costs will reactivate the small transaction scenario, significantly expand the user base and usage frequency, and form a positive cycle of ETH demand;
3) Layer1-Layer2 Ecological Synergy
Implementation timeline: Starting from Q4 2025, continuous optimization from 2026 to 2027;
Technical Objectives:
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Achieve seamless interoperability between L1 and main L2 (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, etc.);
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Now the decentralized liquidity is about 120 billion TVL, and the unified liquidity pool TVL has exceeded US$200 billion;
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Cross-layer transaction costs are reduced by 90%, achieving cross-layer confirmation within 10 seconds;
Realization significance:
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The DeFi protocol can more efficiently aggregate the entire ecosystem (L1+L2) liquidity, generate a 1+1>2 network effect, greatly improving the capital efficiency and application experience of the entire Ethereum ecosystem;
4) Validator economic optimization
Implementation timeline: Starting from the second half of 2025, it will be optimized simultaneously in conjunction with the upgrading of various technologies and will continue to be improved for 2 years;
Technical Objectives:
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The minimum staking threshold for validators has gradually been reduced from 32 ETH to 16 ETH, and even eventually to 1ETH;
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The annualized yield of pledge has increased from the current 4-6% to 6-8%;
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Simplify the operating threshold of verifiers, support light node verification, and improve the degree of network decentralization;
Realization significance:
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The reduction of the validator threshold and the optimization of the income model make the ETH staking rate expected to increase from the current approximately 25% to more than 40% (about 48 million ETH is locked), further reducing the circulation supply of ETH and strengthening deflation expectations;
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The increase in pledge income will enhance the attractiveness of ETH as a “digital bond” and provide fundamental support for its valuation;
5) Regression of sharding technology (ETH 3.0)
Implementation timeline: Design and research and development will begin in 2026, and will be implemented in 2027-2028 or more;
Technical Objectives:
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Combined with zkEVM+ sharding to achieve millions of transaction processing capabilities per second;
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Data availability costs reduced by 99%;
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Spread blockchain data into multiple shards, and the verifier only needs to process part of the data;
Realization significance:
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The reintroduction of shards shows that Ethereum is preparing for the mass adoption of Web3 in the next decade, and the long-cherished wish of “World Computer” will be re-uplifted in the agenda;
