jakiro
Deng Tong, Bitchain Vision
Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, 2024 and started trading on January 11, 2024, various ETF applications have emerged one after another, including both mainstream coins and other cryptocurrencies.This article sorts out which cryptocurrency ETFs have been submitted this year. What is the probability of passing?What impact will it have on the crypto market?
1. What other cryptocurrency ETFs have been submitted this year
SOL, 99%
On June 28, REX Shares announced on the X platform that the Solana staking ETF “REX-OspreySOL+Staking ETF” will be launched soon. It is reported that the ETF is aiming to track Solana’s performance and generate revenue through on-chain staking. It is said that the ETF is also the first staking cryptocurrency ETF in the United States.Additionally, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas disclosed on the X platform that the SEC said there were no further comments, so it looks like they are ready to start.
Previously, many institutions submitted SOL spot ETF applications from the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025. Sosovalue analysts pointed out that the SEC accepted the SOL spot ETF Form 19b-4 submitted by Grayscale Solana Trust on February 12. If we refer to the extreme approval cases of Bitcoin spot ETF, the latest approval date will be locked on October 10, 2025.
On June 26, investment management company Invesco Ltd and cryptocurrency-focused company Galaxy Digital LP also joined the Solana ETF.The subsidiaries of the two companies filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the application for the “Invesco Galaxy Solana ETF”.If approved, the fund will be traded on the Chicago Options Exchange (Cboe) BZX under the stock code “QSOL,” the statement said.Invesco Capital Management LLC will serve as the initiator and Bank of New York Mellon will serve as the initiator.Galaxy will be responsible for the acquisition of tokens.The statement also states that Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC will serve as the custodian of SOL.The U.S. SEC asked Solana ETF issuers to update their S-1 documents earlier this month, suggesting approvals may arrive soon.
The Polymarket platform predicts the probability of passing this year to be 99%.
XRP, 85%
On April 30, the four crypto futures XRP ETFs registered by ProShares Trust on January 17, 2025 (ProShares XRP ETF, ProShares UltraShort XRP ETF, ProShares Ultra XRP ETF and ProShares Short XRP ETF).
On April 26, the world’s first spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) linked to XRP was issued by Hashdex and managed by Genial Investimentos. It began trading on the Brazil Stock Exchange B3 on April 25.The ETF code is XRPH11, tracking the Nasdaq XRP reference price index.According to Hashdex, the ETF will allocate at least 95% of its net assets to XRP.
On June 18, Purpose XRP ETF, a subsidiary of Purpose Investments Inc., began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading code XRPP.This ETF provides direct access to spot XRP.This is also the first spot XRP ETF in North America.
On June 18, crypto asset management company 3iQ launched the 3iQ XRP ETF (XRPQ) on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The 3iQ XRP ETF has a management fee of 0% in the first six months, and users can invest through a registered account in Canada. Listing on TSX will enable qualified investors around the world to participate in the investment, subject to local regulations.
In addition, Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Canary Capital, etc. have also submitted applications for XRP spot ETFs.Nate Geraci, CEO of ETFStore, US ETF expert, said on social media that the XRP spot ETF is about to be launched.“With Ripple withdrawing his lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), clearing the way for XRP spot ETF…and also clearing the way for BlackRock’s joining.”
The Polymarket platform predicts the probability of passing this year to be 85%.
BNB, the probability is unknown
On April 2, VanEck registered a BNB ETF in Delaware.On May 5, Vaneck submitted the S-1 file for the BNB ETF.
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, pointed out: Many people have slammed VanEck’s BNB ETF application.However, just knowing some of Zhao Changpeng’s remarks, he is providing advice to multiple governments on establishing cryptocurrency reserves and also suggesting the inclusion of BNB in the reserves, which may be why Jan VanEck noticed and took action.Again, this is just a hypothetical idea, but the logic is very clear.
SUI, 60%
On May 27, 21Shares has applied to list the 21Shares SUI ETF on the Nasdaq Exchange to track the spot price of Sui’s native token SUI.The ETF is designed to calculate net value through daily SUI USD reference price compiled at CF Benchmarks, without leverage or derivatives, and only hold spot SUI, hosted by BitGo and Coinbase Custody.The trust product will allow institutions to invest in SUI through traditional brokerage accounts, providing investors with a more transparent and compliant access path.
On June 11, Nasdaq submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to list the 21Shares SUI ETF, a spot trading fund based on SUI tokens.The 19b-4 document has now been officially released to the SEC’s public registration system, marking the official launch of the review process.If listed in the United States, investors will further expand the adoption of this innovative Layer 1 ecosystem known for its outstanding performance and practicality.21Shares has now launched Sui ETP on the Euronext exchanges in Paris and Amsterdam, and the inflow of funds for this product has increased significantly this year.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts a 60% chance of passing this year.
SEI, the probability is unknown
On April 30, Canary Capital submitted an S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to manage the product that may become the first spot SEI ETF in the United States, and the fund contains pledge elements.The proposed fund aims to provide investors with direct access to the SEI price of the native cryptocurrency of Sei network, and assets will be escrowed by BitGo and Coinbase.The trust plans to pledge some assets through one or more infrastructure providers, which may bring additional benefits to investors.In addition, the fund will handle the creation and redemption of shares in cash, similar to the existing spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF structure in the United States.
PENGU, 50%
On June 26, Cboe BZX Exchange filed a 19b-4 application document with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the Canary PENGU ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts that the probability of PENGU ETF passing this year is 50%.
LTC, 82%
Grayscale and Canary Capital submitted LTC ETF applications.The two agencies submitted relevant 19b-4 documents on January 16 and January 24, 2025, respectively, and both have been accepted by the SEC.
On May 6, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision on the Canary spot Litecoin ETF.
The probability of passing LTC ETFs predicted by the Polymarket platform is 82% this year.
DOT, 90%
On March 18, Nasdaq submitted Form 19b-4 for Polkadot ETF application to the US SEC for 21 Shares.
On May 15, the US SEC made a decision on the extension of the 21Shares spot Polkadot ETF approval.
On June 24, the SEC delayed its review of the 21Shares spot Polkadot ETF.
The SEC has extended the review period for the listing application of the 21Shares Polkadot Trust ETF to July 26, 2025.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts the probability of passing the DOT ETF this year is 90%.
AVAX, 90%
On March 15, VanEck submitted the S-1 file for its Avalanche ETF to the SEC.
On March 28, Nasdaq submitted a Grayscale Avalanche ETF application to the US SEC.
On April 23, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirmed the spot Avalanche ETF filed by VanEck.
On June 13, the US SEC postponed its resolution on the Vaneck spot Avalanche ETF.
Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, posted on the X platform that as Nasdaq submitted Form 19b-4 application for Grayscale Avalanche ETF, currently the altcoin ETF filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has covered 11 types of altcoin ETFs, including: XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, AVAX, SUI, HBAR, DOT, LTC, APT and AXL.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts the AVAX ETF probability of passing this year is 90%.
DOGE, 75%
On February 14, the SEC has confirmed acceptance of Grayscale and the New York Stock Exchange’s 19b-4 application to establish a DOGE ETF.
On March 12, the SEC announced the postponement of the Grayscale Spot DOGE ETF resolution.
On April 10, 21Shares submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to launch Dogecoin Exchange-traded funds.
On April 29, Nasdaq filed Form 19b-4 for DOGE ETF application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for 21Shares.
On April 30, the SEC’s decision to apply for Bitwise spot DOGE ETF was postponed to June 15, 2025.
On June 26, Bitwise Asset Management submitted the S-1 file for the revised DOGE ETF to the SEC, allowing for “physical” creation and redemption for the first time, which aligns the operating model of the SEC approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF.
The probability of passing LTC ETFs predicted by the Polymarket platform is 75% this year.
ADA, 90%
In February this year, Grayscale submitted the world’s first ADA spot ETF application to the SEC.
On March 12, the SEC delayed the approval of the Grayscale Spot ADA ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart released a forecast that the probability of ADA ETF passing this year is 90%.
HBAR, 90%
On November 13, 2024, Canary submitted an HBAR ETF application.
On February 22, Canary submitted a revised S-1 document to the US SEC for its HBAR ETF.
On June 11, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed its decision to file a Hedera ETF application by Canary Capital.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart predicts the probability of passing the HBAR ETF this year is 90%.
TRX ETF,The probability is unknown
In April 2025, Canary Capital Group officially submitted a spot TRX ETF application to the SEC.
On May 24, Justin Sun revealed in an interview after Trump’s cryptocurrency dinner that the application has been recognized by the SEC, marking a major breakthrough in TRON’s compliance process.The application was submitted by the Chicago Exchange and is currently under the approval process.
NEAR, the probability is unknown
On April 25, Bitwise registered a NEAR ETF in Delaware.
On May 6, Bitwise’s registration statement showed that ETFs will track the price trend of NEAR tokens through traditional brokers and deduct fees.Bitwise specifies Coinbase Custody as the custodian of the Bitwise NEAR ETF.The management fees, stock code and listing exchange for Bitwise NEAR ETF have not been determined.
TRUMP, the probability is unknown
On January 21, Rex has applied to launch a TRUMP ETF.
APT, the probability is unknown
On February 25, Bitwise filed documents for the Aptos ETF Trust in Delaware and filed the corresponding S-1 Document 4 with the SEC on March 5.
On June 26, Bitwise submitted revised S-1 forms for spot DOGE and Aptos ETF to the U.S. SEC.
AXL, the probability is unknown
On March 6, Canary Capital submitted an S-1 application document for its AXL ETF.
2. Will the applications for many cryptocurrency ETFs bring about a “altcoin season”?
Cryptocurrency ETF applications often trigger investors’ expectations of their approval. Once the market believes that a certain cryptocurrency ETF may pass, investors will tend to buy a certain cryptocurrency, which will drive the market up.
After the ETF is passed, it will also attract more investors to participate, thereby helping the growth of trading volume in the entire crypto market and improving liquidity.
There are currently voices that the SEC will approve some cryptocurrency ETFs in the future and will start the “Summer of Altcoin ETFs”.
“Being ready for a potential altcoin ETF summer, Solana is likely to lead the way,” said Eric Balchunas, senior Bloomberg ETF analyst.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said the altcoin market has not actually started yet: “The largest bull market in cryptocurrency history is coming soon, as market expansion after such a long bear market will surpass any previous cycle.”
