jakiro
Author: David Canellis, Blockworks; Compiled by: Tao Zhu, Bitchain Vision
PolitiFi — There was a glorious period in the first half of the year.But it has been on hold since then.
The total market cap of the five most well-known tokens, MAGA (TRUMP), MAGA Hat (MAGA), Doland Tremp (TREMP), Jeo Boden (BODEN) and Kamala Horris (KAMA), peaked at an early June, exceeding $1.25 billion.
They are now worth less than $170 million, down nearly 90%.
According to CoinGecko, the remnants of ConstitutionDAO lost to Citadel CEO Ken Griffin in an auction at the end of 2021, who auctioned a rare first edition of the U.S. Constitution to Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, which now accounts for nearly allegedly, according to CoinGecko.Two-thirds of the entire PolitiFi market.It remains to be debated, though, whether it should really be tied with political imitation memecoins and others.
At this time last year, PolitiFi did not even exist.This election season is a big moment for it, with the biggest Trump memecoin coming in August 2023 – just as Bitcoin prepares for its massive rebound.
ETH has lagged behind the S&P 500 for the past 14 months
Bitcoin’s bull market between October and March does provide cover for PolitiFi.The above chart plots the market value of the five major political memecoins (the faded area behind) and the performance of Bitcoin (orange line), Ethereum (purple line), and S&P 500 (blue line).
As you can see, PolitiFi basically reflects the price trend of ETH during this period—the purple line follows the shape of PolitiFi’s market capitalization—and Bitcoin is at least performing better for now.
Is PolitiFi over?Probably not.But considering that Kamala Harris-themed memecoins aren’t performing better than Trump’s memecoins, that says a little bit.
A simple reason for this particular type of memecoin decline may be that no new interested holders enter their markets, their liquidity may outperform the sellers and push up prices.
MAGA holders are distributed on four different blockchains, about three-quarters of which are on Ethereum and Solana
This chart amplifies the market cap of the largest Trump meme coins (as shown in the orange line) and maps it to changes in the number of new holders.
Note that the key points in Trump’s narrative are directly in line with the influx of a large number of new holders.
Thousands of addresses put MAGA (TRUMP) in their bags before and after the Supreme Court’s election ruling, Trump’s “humiliation fee” verdict, and July’s assassination attempt.
There hasn’t been such luck since then, with only 424 new holders following the debate with Harris on Tuesday as of Friday morning.Meanwhile, Polymarket’s odds against Trump’s November win have dropped from 52% to 49%.
all in all,Of the 80,190 addresses holding MAGA (TRUMP), about 30% (24,300) were bought after the token hit an all-time high of $17.51 in early June.It currently trades at $2.25 after losing nine out of ten of its value.
Of course, the 80% drop is one of the oldest traditions of cryptocurrencies.But if there is time to revive Trump’s headlines PolitiFi, then now is the time.
