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In September 2025, at the Oriental Economic Forum held in Vladivostok, Russia, Anton Kobiakov, senior adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, made a compelling remark.He warned that the U.S. is plotting to use cryptocurrencies and stablecoins to reshape the global financial system to secretly devalue its national debt of up to $37 trillion.This view quickly sparked widespread discussion in the international media and the economic community.Kobeakov pointed out that the United States intends to transfer debt to the “crypto cloud” and pass on the losses to other countries around the world through system reset, leaving the latter to “take the blame.”Although this statement sounds bold, it is not groundless.It echoes similar claims from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who had suggested that the U.S. government sell gold reserves to buy bitcoin to reshape the global reserve asset landscape.
The scale and pressure of U.S. national debt
As of September 4, 2025, the total U.S. federal debt has climbed to about $35 trillion, an increase of $2.09 trillion from the same period in 2024.This figure equals about 130% of the U.S. GDP, a record high.The debt structure is mainly composed of short-term treasury notes (term 4-52 weeks), medium-term treasury notes (2-10 years) and long-term treasury bond bonds (20-30 years), among which publicly held debts dominate.The surge was caused by a sustained fiscal deficit: the federal deficit exceeded $1 trillion in the first half of fiscal year 2025, far higher than the pre-epidemic level.
Historical review shows that the U.S. debt problem is not a sudden outbreak.After the end of World War II in 1945, the proportion of US public debt to GDP was as high as 106%, but it was gradually digested through post-war economic growth and moderate inflation.During the stagflation period in the 1970s, debt was “diluted” through high inflation, and the actual burden was reduced by about 30%.After the global financial crisis in 2008, quantitative easing (QE) further amplified the money supply, causing asset prices to soar.During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded from $4 trillion to nearly $9 trillion, triggering a peak in inflation from 2021 to 2023. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) once exceeded 9%.These events confirm the classic path of debt depreciation: not through default, but through monetary expansion, the actual value of debt is reduced.
In 2025, debt pressure will further intensify.Although the Fed has shifted from aggressive interest rate hikes in 2022 to gradual rate cuts, geopolitical tensions (such as the continuation of Ukraine conflict) and domestic spending (such as the renewal of the infrastructure bill) have pushed up borrowing demand.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. fiscal deficit will account for more than 6.5% of GDP in 2025. If there is no structural reform, the debt/GDP ratio will exceed 150% in 2030.Against this background, Kobeakov’s remarks point directly to the possible shift to digital assets as a new tool to amplify its “sin tax” advantage – that is, to export inflation burden by controlling the global reserve currency USD.
Economic Principles of Debt Depreciation
The core of debt depreciation lies in distinguishing nominal value from actual value.Assuming the global economic value is equivalent to a $100 note, the United States borrows all $100 for expenditure.When repaying, if you directly return the equivalent banknote, you need to sacrifice the current resources.But as a dollar issuer, the United States can inject an additional $100 through the Federal Reserve’s printing of money, double the money supply.At this time, the supply of goods and services has not changed, and prices have risen accordingly: the original 1 dollar commodity rose to $2.This is the inflation mechanism.The $100 paid is nominally full, but the actual purchasing power is only half and the actual burden of debt is reduced by half.
This principle originates from the theory of currency quantity (MV=PT), where the increase in money supply (M) does not rise simultaneously with the trading speed (V) or output (T), the price level (P) will rise.Historically, ancient Rome diluted debts by devaluing silver coins (reducing silver content); Britain funded the Napoleonic Wars through paper currency expansion in the 18th century; in 1933, the Roosevelt government banned private gold holdings and decoupled the US dollar from gold, which actually depreciated by 40%.Contemporary cases are more subtle: in 1971, Nixon’s “golden shock” ended the Bretton Woods system, and the US dollar broke away from the gold standard, allowing infinite expansion.In the following decade, the inflation rate reached an average of 7.1%, effectively digesting the debts of the Vietnam War and the oil crisis.
In the digital age, this mechanism can be amplified by stablecoins.Stable coins such as USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle Issued), claiming to anchor the dollar 1:1, are usually backed by U.S. Treasury bonds and cash reserves.As of September 2025, the total market value of global stablecoins has reached nearly US$300 billion, an increase of 120% year-on-year, of which USDT’s market value is more than US$150 billion.These assets are widely used in cross-border payments, DeFi (decentralized finance) and emerging market remittances, with annual transaction volume exceeding US$10 trillion, which is twice that of Visa.What Kobeakov calls the “crypto cloud” is essentially a blockchain network, where users hold “digital dollars” through stablecoins, indirectly increasing demand for US Treasury bonds.
The depreciation process is as follows: the United States purchases Treasury bonds through QE and injects liquidity; stablecoin issuers will reserve investments in these Treasury bonds to form a closed loop.As adoption rates rise, holding stablecoins by users around the world (especially developing countries) is equivalent to “lending money to the United States.”If the Fed triggers inflation, the purchasing power of stablecoins will depreciate simultaneously, and the losses will be shared by global holders, rather than limited to the United States.This is different from the traditional dollar system, which mainly exports inflation through trade deficits; stablecoins achieve “invisible exports” through smartphones and wallets to avoid political resistance.
Global diffusion and control mechanism of stablecoins
The rise of stablecoins originated from distrust to traditional banks after the 2008 financial crisis, and the convenience of blockchain.In 2014, Tether launched its first dollar stablecoin, and the market has since grown explosively.In 2025, Ethereum and Tron dominate the on-chain share of stablecoins, the former being used for smart contracts and the latter being dominated by Asian transactions.The U.S. regulatory framework further catalyzes this trend: the Genius Act passed in 2024 allows banks, trust companies and non-bank entities to issue regulated stablecoins, provided they are approved by the Treasury Department.This opens the door to tech giants such as Apple or Meta, which can launch products such as “MetaCoin” that are directly neutral but are subject to US laws.
From a control point of view, stablecoins provide the “CBDC-level” influence without the label of central bank digital currency (CBDC).Although the US CBDC pilot (such as Project Hamilton) has progressed slowly, stablecoins have implemented similar functions: real-time settlement, KYC (Know Customers) compliance and blacklisting mechanisms.In September 2025, the Federal Reserve’s report showed that more than 70% of its stablecoin reserves were invested in short-term Treasury bonds, driving downward Treasury bond yields and reducing U.S. borrowing costs.If the debt is transferred to the stablecoin system, the United States can adjust the anchor ratio or freeze the address to “reset” the system, similar to the gold decoupling in 1971.
However, the hidden concern of this strategy lies in the trust deficit.Stablecoin reserve audits rely on issuer reports, such as Tether’s quarterly disclosures, but lack real-time blockchain verification.It is difficult for foreign governments to confirm the authenticity 100%, especially under Sino-US trade frictions.In 2025, the EU promoted MiCA regulations that require 1:1 reserves of stablecoins to be transparent, while China has banned crypto trading and turned to digital RMB (e-CNY).Kobeakov’s warning comes from this: the United States can “change the rules” at any time and externalize systemic risks.
Global countermeasures: The recovery of central bank gold reserves
Faced with the potential subversion of the dollar hegemony, global central banks are accelerating diversified reserves.A 2025 survey by the World Gold Council showed that 44% of central banks actively managed gold reserves, up 7 percentage points from 2024.In the first eight months of 2025, net gold purchases reached 650 tons, a record high since 2010.Among them, the People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings for five consecutive months, with reserves reaching 2,300 tons; the Russian Central Bank reserves exceeding 2,500 tons, followed by India and Türkiye.
The advantage of gold as a “ownerless” asset is its millennium consensus: it is not manipulated by any country.In September 2025, gold prices broke through $3,500 per ounce, partly due to central bank demand.Reuters reported that gold has surpassed the euro and became the second largest global reserve asset after the US dollar, with a share rising to 12%.76% of central banks plan to increase their holdings in gold over the next five years to hedge the dollar’s volatility.This reflects emerging markets’ doubts about stablecoins: the dollar is anchored on the surface, but in fact it amplifies the US “sin tax”.
The driving force behind emerging economies’ shift to gold also includes geopolitical risks.After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, the West freezes Russia’s $300 billion foreign exchange reserves, prompting the world to reflect on the “weaponization” of the US dollar.In 2025, BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) promoted de-dollarization, and gold accounted for 15% of trade settlements.At the same time, Bitcoin, as “digital gold”, has attracted much attention, and its price stabilized at around US$117,000 in September 2025, up more than 50% from the beginning of the year.However, Bitcoin’s volatility (annualized volatility is about 40%) makes it more suitable as a supplement rather than a core reserve.
Michael Sailer’s Bitcoin Strategy and the Secret Path of the United States
Kobeakov’s views resonate highly with Sail’s public advice.Sailer, founder of MicroStrategy, has transformed the company into a “bitcoin proxy” since 2020, holding more than 250,000 Bitcoins in total, with a market value of approximately US$300 billion.In May 2025, at the Bitcoin 2025 conference, Sailer reiterated his “21 ways to get rich”, emphasizing the scarcity of Bitcoin (21 million caps) and institutional adoption.He once suggested that the Trump administration sell US gold reserves (about 8,133 tons, with a market value of more than US$600 billion) to purchase 5 million bitcoins, thereby “demonizing” gold assets, hitting the reserves of rivals such as China and Russia, and reshaping the US balance sheet.Sailer calculated that if this policy is implemented, U.S. assets will increase to one trillion yuan and control the global reserve network.
In 2025, Sailler’s influence expanded to the Trump family.Eric Trump revealed that Sailer proposed to mortgage Mar-a-Lago Real Estate to raise $2 billion to invest in Bitcoin and predicted that Bitcoin will exceed $170,000 by the end of 2026.Although the Trump administration (if the 2024 election wins) has not been adopted publicly, private channels have paved the way.MicroStrategy’s stock price rose 150% in 2025, attracting Wall Street to follow up, such as Tesla’s continued Bitcoin.
The U.S. government avoids direct intervention in case of global panic.There are rich historical precedents: after World War II, the United States indirectly controlled the European economy through the Marshall Plan; in the Internet era, private enterprises were first innovated and then adopted by the state (such as NSA monitoring).Bitcoin strategy may be similar: the government does not buy coins directly, but allows companies to go first.In the future, if Bitcoin’s market value exceeds gold (currently about $15 trillion), the Federal Reserve can indirectly enter the market through equity investment in MicroStrategy (such as holdings in Intel in the 1980s).In September 2025, the price of Bitcoin futures reached US$117,500, indicating that the market is optimistic.This path is gradual and deniable, and is in line with the American tradition of “soft power”.
Real possibilities and future prospects
Although Kobeakov’s warning has his geopolitical stance, its logic can stand the test.US debt is unsustainable, and traditional inflation has reached its limit (2025 CPI target is 2%, actually hovering 3.5%).Stablecoins provide export valves: In 2025, its market value accounts for 0.3% of the global M2 currency supply, but the growth trajectory suggests that it can reach 10% in 2030.If combined with Bitcoin, the United States can build a “dual-track” system: stablecoins export liabilities and Bitcoin hoards value.
However, challenges coexist.High regulatory uncertainty: Although the Biden administration supports stablecoins, the Trump camp emphasizes “crypto freedom.”Global boycotts are intensifying: EU MiCA regulations in 2025 require localization of non-USD stablecoins, and China’s e-CNY users exceed 300 million.The “hard assets” alliance between gold and Bitcoin may be counter-attacked, and the BRICS gold standard initiative has been traction.
In short, this “crypto debt reset” is not a conspiracy, but an extension of economic logic.As a reserve currency issuer, the United States naturally tends to output burdens; digital technology only amplifies its leverage.The latest developments in September 2025 – US bonds of 37 trillion, stablecoins of 300 billion, gold hot purchases, and Bitcoin of 117,000 – indicate an accelerated transformation.The world needs to be vigilant: the double-edged sword of financial innovation may reshape order or lead to new crises.Only by diversified reserves and international coordination can risks be curbed.
