jakiro
Author: Crypto, Distilled, encrypted KOL; Translation: Bit Chain Vision Xiaozou
Coinbase has just released their “encryption outlook” report in the third quarter of 2024.I have read the report of the 60 -page 60 -page report for you, and summarized the content you need to know at 10 points as follows.
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1As well asMVRV(Market value and realization value ratio) and market trend:
When the MVRV is higher than the average level of 365 days, it marks a strong upward trend, and the support of MVRV provides buying opportunities.At present, MVRV has rebounded from the support level, indicating that the upward trend remains unchanged.
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2As well asBTCInvestment returns:
BTC has gone through 4 rounds of market cycles, and each cycle has its own bull market and bear market stage.This round of cycle began in 2022, and the price of BTC rose by 400%compared with the low in November 2022.This cycle is similar to the 2018-2022 cycle. At that time, the lower price of BTC rose by 2000%.
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3The smaller decline:
The trend of the BTC bull market is usually characterized by index levels and significant declines.This round of this cycle is different from the past, and the decline is smaller: 8%-20%declines, 20%-30%of the decline in two times, none of the falling declines exceeded 30%.
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4, Decreasing cryptocurrency correlation:
The correlation between crypto assets declined in the second quarter: ETH’s correlation is 0.7, and some cottage coins are even lower than 0.5.This related decourse marks a deeper understanding of the market’s fundamentals.With the clarification of supervision and the use of institutions, the correlation is expected to further decline.
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5, Volatility and reality:
From the perspective of perception, for many investors, the volatility of digital assets is too great.The reality is that the volatility of cryptocurrencies is equivalent to some widely held large technology stocks.
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6,Spot goodsETFInfluence:
The spot ETF has promoted a large number of new demand for BTC, and the new BTC supply is still limited to miners’ rewards.Since the start of the spot ETF, the demand for ETF has exceeded the circulation of BTC.
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7As well asEthMarket cycle:
ETH has gone through two complete market cycles.This round of cycle began in 2022. Since November 2022, ETH has risen by more than 240%.This round of this cycle is similar to the 2018-2022 cycle, and the lower price of ETH has increased by 6000%.
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8As well asEthTotal lock value (TVL)),:,
TVL tracks the value of smart contracts and DAPP Zhongshan Zha coins and stablecoins.It reflects financial activities and liquidity.In the second quarter, TVL increased by 9%, indicating that activities on the Ethereum blockchain increased.
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9As well asFTXCash allocation:
The FTX will allocate cash. If the receiver is re -investor, a large amount of cryptocurrency flows into the market.Key Date: August 16 (voting for trustee), October 7 (the court approved deadline).
10, Stablecoin:
The MC (market value) of the stablecoin was 162.5 billion US dollars, up $ 2 billion in two weeks, exceeding the level before 3AC.Stable currency reflects the liquidity of cryptocurrencies and is a key long -term price prediction indicator.With the inflow of capital, it is difficult to stand on the point of view.
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