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Written by: Matti, Zee Prime Capital, Translated by: Yangz, Techub News
Translator’s note: Whether it is a veteran who has experienced several cycles or a newcomer who has just entered the circle, when facing the Web3 industry where Trump is risking hot spots or “opportunities to get rich” almost all the time after Trump’s victory,I guess I was a little confused.Sometimes there are various new animal system Memecoin that has become popular with bigwigs such as Musk and V God, and sometimes it is a thousand times myth created by various AI agents.Of course, there are also various positive information that follow, such as the continuous flow of funds into US Bitcoin spot ETFs every day; major listed companies led by MicroStrategy may continue to build their own “Bitcoin Strategic Reserves”; and such as TrunkThe Pu team is considering setting up the first cryptocurrency policy-related position in the White House and other positive regulatory signals.
All of this exudes the atmosphere of a bull market, and Bitcoin is also heading towards the 100,000 USDT mark.But what is under the appearance of a bull market?Matti of Zee Prime Capital points to the “undercurrent” of the current industry, that is, “the most entertaining outcome is most likely to happen”, while “opportunism is the strongest pagan in cryptocurrencies.”
The following is the full text compilation.
If you left the cryptocurrency industry in 2022, or, instead of actually leaving, you were attracted by various superficial narratives, hype Memecoin and chase the generational wealth that might bring, read some industry articles occasionally.Then, you should wonder what exactly happened under the appearance.Or, what have you missed?
In this era, there are two phenomena that seem to envelop the world.
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Musk’s Razor: The most entertaining results are most likely to happen (Note: Occam’s Razor’s Law advocates that when solving problems, the simplest and most direct explanations or solutions should be given priority)
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The once entertainment became serious, and the once serious became interesting
The first point is obvious.By 2016 standards, it is incredible to have Musk manage a US department called “DOGE” (Department of Government Efficiency).But now, 8 years have passed, nothing is impossible.
As for the second point, it is actually the embodiment of the first point.The U.S. election has become the real season end of a reality show called “America”.Politics became entertainment, war casualties were used to broadcast live, movie plots were used to convey the agenda, and social media posts could be prosecuted.
One of the small symptoms of “becoming serious entertainment” is money.To be precise, it is Memecoin.What they call the magic online currency, Funnymoney, is a real-time online meme lottery.
Not everyone can be meme and profit from it, but everyone can reach this goal infinitely by rushing for Memecoin.
Obviously, sovereign states will build Bitcoin reserves on a large scale (following a group of innovators such as El Salvador and Bhutan) and will not sell them in a hurry in August like Germany, which is uncompromising to the public.Looking back, it is obvious that one shouldn’t expect a country that decides to continue closing nuclear power plants while fighting agents with its former largest energy suppliers to make economic rational decisions.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor is working to eliminate all the roots of bubbles, trying to get Wall Street to beat the sovereign states in this competition.
However, these are Financial Times-like news and readers don’t really care.What is surging under the surface?What has been brewing for a long time and has leveraged the wheel of the appearance of a bull market?
If you don’t know who the user is – you are the user
For industry insiders, cryptocurrencies have become a way of life.It is terrible to admit this, but it is an indisputable fact.This lifestyle is the sum of high-quality products for various cryptocurrency brands. It is a lifestyle that repeatedly transfers funds and loses money, but still hopes to “retire gloriously” without any effort.If you use Mable (maybe not that direct), it is:
“This is a lifestyle that is only the most important thing in the present and the present, because the impact of any person or thing is almost reflected in what we are experiencing in real time. The concept of the end result is almost outdated because the world has alreadyIt really turned into an infinite game.”
As the cycle changes from “season” to “week”, the cryptocurrency industry is growing faster and faster.The so-called “counterfeit season” has now become the “counterfeit week”.Narrative rotation is faster than ever, and there are more distractions to choose from.
The cryptocurrency industry has truly entered Kevin Kelly’s protopia world. “Today’s problems are caused by yesterday’s technology success, and the technical solutions to today’s problems will cause tomorrow’s problems.”
Cryptocurrencies are in an endless state of development.In the past, gradual improvements could not be seen for a long time, but now, just a little push, a small amount of liquidity and expectations of political tendencies can transform this total amount into a financial frenzy.
Everything in cryptocurrency is played by currency.It is currency, the super financialization of attention.And everyone is a user, even if they don’t know it.
Living in a topography, living in a state of development, you won’t even realize that you are living in it because you are forced to upgrade every day.Even if you don’t think you’re a newbie, you’re a newbie every day.”The momentum of technology is driving us to pursue the latest technology, and the latest technology always disappears when the next update appears, so satisfaction keeps passing through our hands.”
In 2017, on-chain transactions through the Order Book (a tribute to Ethredelta) were a bad experience and AMMs were considered inefficient.In 2018, the problem is that no one wants tokens.And by 2020, the market realized that they could make money by exchanging tokens on Uniswap without permission and get paid while providing liquidity.Cryptocurrencies have entered a state of endless development.
The trend is improving, but it is better to give “ticker” directly
All I know is that each time is different, but it is not.The difference is that every nuance of fanaticism is beyond what most people imagine and expect.We cannot predict where it will take us, especially given that there are so many ecology and applications that are moving in all directions.
My most optimistic guess is that the speed of change will get faster and faster, some waves will return again, and path independence will become the most valuable resource for navigating in such an environment.The so-called L1 or L2 ecosystem will become less important as the trend becomes application/use case dominance.
Of all the current use cases, I am most interested in the “agent” and “DeSci” themes as they complement the existing industries of DeFi and Memecoins.Synergistic momentum may lead to the Cambrian explosion of new use cases. Although some use cases are flashy, I still want to hope that other use cases will bring real changes.
If value can flow freely between DeFi, DeSci and agents, we can truly productize “Investment Progress” and wrap it in a variety of memes.In this way, it will strengthen itself and expand the cryptocurrency market to unforeseen places.
We need cryptocurrencies to promote positive-sum games by creating new markets.And this may be why big companies in the industry explore these topics, and they can quickly have a realistic impact.No one should think that Memecoins will become a real-world asset at the moment.
It should be noted that, like every fanaticism, the need for genius ideas creates a constant stream of fakes, gimmicks and scams.
The so-called pagan is not a pagan
The triggers of innovation may only appear in retrospect, just as in the topography, the aggregation of progressive progress becomes clear and visible in a short period of time.Next, verification will blind people, and hunger will lead to rights, which will eventually develop into arrogance.
Bitcoin was once an entry-level drug in the cryptocurrency industry, but it is not now.At least for retail investors, this is no longer the case.Memecoin, as a monetized attention market, is becoming an access point for new users.But they are just a momentum deal and are not forward-looking.It is the impact value replaced by new impact value.No insight can predict this.They are as quick as any social media post.They are new forms of media that redefine social media.
Just recently, people have also realized that Memecoin can be attached to a vision and given it a real character.GOAT’s connection to The Terminal Of Truth is the first example of connecting Memecoin with the role of an AI agent.After that, there are Luna (AI agent, non-Terra Luna) and Eliza, although their expression is quite average, which is enough to show that there is a design space where experiments can be performed.
A few days ago, I discovered a Memecoin tied to an AI agent that controls robots around the world, including driving robots and streaming robots (Disclaimer: Frodobots is our portfolio company, and we holdThere is SAM).If people continue to iterate at this rate, the game will still be fun.All this can only prove that it is the peak era of cryptocurrency entertainment.(Meme) coins are the medium for people to consume.
However, as of now, the term “agent” is just a general surface modification, and after all, it is an automated “child care”.However, it still provides new ideas and expands imagination.In addition to the so-called “cult” commitment, it forces people to innovate to some extent.
Words like “religious believers” or “paganism” are used rashly, but what I want to say is that there is and only one kind of paganism in the cryptocurrency industry, that is, “up only”Belief.Strangely, this is a religion that maximizes rational economic choices while making irrational financial decisions.And true pagans never call themselves pagans.
So, no matter whether you have been in the industry in the past few years, you may have overlooked one thing, that is, cryptocurrencies are actually becoming a consumer product.It creates a new medium that allows people to consume in the age of dopamine economy with fragmented attention, whose value is in some way fleeting.
All of this comes with the economic and political downwind, and the most interesting result is two-way.Wealth will be lost in an instant, and the greatest opportunity will always exist in asymmetric results.The most promising thing today did not look like an opportunity yesterday, and the biggest threat was easily overlooked.
Opportunism is the strongest pagan in cryptocurrencies.
