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Author: Jerry, the initiator of ThePrimediaDAO. This article was created at the end of 2023 and has been slightly supplemented during the Spring Festival.
Introduction
From the perspective of encryption history, the Web3 storm in 2023 is unsurprising.Following the bottom of the bear market in 2022, Crypto World has passed the bull market step by step in 2023.However, the huge progress in AI this year and the threat theory brought about by this have engulfed Web3 into an epic grand chapter.As early as the beginning of Bitcoin, people were looking forward to blockchain establishing order for intelligent networks; and later people realized that AI and blockchain/Web3 would meet in the metaverse, but they were just looking forward to it; until 2023 ChatGPTThe popularity of AI threat theory and computing power governance issues have forced people to enter the implementation practice of combining AI and Web3.
We can judge from this that the construction of the meta-universe has begun to begin in 2023, and the singularity of the meta-universe has occurred.In this context, we are ushering in a first year of the construction of the meta-universe and the crypto bull market cycle that will surely be recorded in history.2024, despite the changing circumstances of the physical world, opportunities for human beings to move towards the digital society are surging.
01 Convergence: TradeFi and DeFi asset market
2023 is called the first year of RWA, but why is the RWA market this year lukewarm?We start by answering this question: Because the early media of the RWA market were mainly Treasury bonds, gold and US dollars, the investment returns of these assets were relatively stable, with limited fluctuations, and even the US dollar intervened in the form of stablecoins, TradeFi assets were RWA and crypto-economyThe operation space for the integration of the DeFi market is limited.
With the success of Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street, more TradeFi assets with return on investment, such as stocks and futures, derivatives from traditional financial markets will enter the crypto market through RWA.Take BlackRock as an example, they are looking at how to RWA large amount of TradeFi assets in their hands to integrate into the crypto market.Give you some data to help you feel what this means – according to BlackRock’s financial report on Q3 2023, BlackRock’s management scale is US$9.1 trillion. The management scale of Bitcoin big players that we were very familiar with before isThe tens of billions of dollars, including more than 20 billion dollars in Bitcoin Trust.
Therefore, the crypto market with Bitcoin as its core is simply not enough for BlackRock.After Bitcoin ETFs enter the traditional financial market, bringing more TradeFi assets into the crypto market is worth BlackRock’s play.Therefore, it can be judged that the RWA market will be released in huge quantities in 2024.
Bitcoin ETFs bring Bitcoin into the traditional financial market, bringing funds to the crypto market; RWA brings assets from the traditional financial market into the crypto market, bringing high-quality assets to the crypto market.Therefore, we are optimistic that the overall crypto market volume exceeds 10 trillion US dollars in 2024 is a high probability event, and the price of Bitcoin reaches 100,000 US dollars will also occur in this year (friendly reminders that this article does not constitute investment advice.Please make your decision based on your own judgment).
But all this is just the beginning. We skip the narrative of this bull market cycle, and cooperate with the full text theme to directly look forward to the fact that more than half of the high-quality assets of the physical world will be integrated into the crypto world through RWA in the process of metacosmic construction in the next decade; similarly,Native crypto assets represented by Bitcoin ETFs will also be integrated with the traditional world financial system, providing more diverse wealth rights and asset management paths for early residents of the metaverse.
It is worth mentioning that some people are worried that the crypto market will fall into the fourteen-year bear market cycle encountered in the development of the Internet after this bull market.Let’s not talk about whether these two things are comparable and referenceable. Let’s take a step back, even if the market cycle has its inherent regularity, we believe that this will still be resolved by the above narrative.The huge social changes brought by the Internet cannot match the social changes brought by the social changes brought by the blockchain/Web3 we are in today.
02 Return: basic ecology such as public chain performance, cross-chain interoperability and storage
After experiencing the baptism of the inscription at the end of 2023, people in the crypto world have realized that the current infrastructure such as public chains is still a younger brother.For example, Layer2, which has received hundreds of millions of financing, can’t stand the baptism of inscriptions, let alone its support for the application ecosystem.2024 will undoubtedly be a new round of basic ecological return year for public chain cross-chain interoperability and storage (these efforts will become the basis for the intersection of AI and Web3/blockchain in the meta-universe).
For example, Layer2 is already considering upgrading and breaking the deadlock – if the storage and expansion you spend a lot of money are not enough to attract application developers, then do you need to reflect on yourself, take a step forward, create an application ecosystem, and make good applicationsIt can grow better here, allowing users to have a better application experience here.
For example, intention, modularity and chain abstraction. Under the aforementioned background, these will enter the effect of quantitative change to qualitative change in 2024 based on the preliminary practices in 2023.It is worth mentioning that we have conducted case analysis of intention transactions. The new intent-centric narrative imagination space is huge and there is nowhere to start. Rational developers and crypto ecosystem Builder have focused on the path of large-scale application and adoption of projects.
For example, NFT evolved to ERC404, which brought high-quality basic requirements to the crypto economy and the construction of the meta-universe.Its role is first to empower financial liquidity, which is not only reflected in the avatar NFT/PFT market, but also plays a role in the RWA market; in addition, it can be combined with DID, and empowers DID’s identity, contribution and honor,After the relationship between assets, 404 can help it decompose, so that DID can contribute corresponding status, honors, rights and assets can be divested.
And the concept of DePin is emerging. For example, the AI+DePin project that mainly promotes the European and American markets has been launched on the main network. Now, a new Fortune 500 onboard is a partner every week. It is also mapped in the Messari Depin report..DePin will be an important breakthrough and infrastructure for the combination of AI and Web3. In addition, whether more basic network bandwidth can be combined with blockchain will be witnessed in this cycle.
Regarding the public chain track itself, we expect that this cycle will have a new public chain ecosystem to gradually prosper, but from the perspective of 2024, the most mainstream ones are the Ethereum ecosystem and the Bitcoin ecosystem:
Ethereum ecosystem: In addition to the step-by-step Layer2 and the possibility of application development, our greater expectation lies in the incremental market brought by TradeFi (traditional finance).Most likely, the path to TradeFi (traditional finance) RWA into the crypto market we discussed in the first part will choose Ethereum. For example, BlackRock, which wants to put assets on the chain, will have to do Layer2 by themselves, and it is highly likely that it will be.Choose Ethereum.
Bitcoin Ecosystem: As early as the DeFi period of the Ethereum Ecosystem, people were imagining the huge market space of “BTC+DeFi”.All this will come true in 2024.Our expectations for the Bitcoin ecosystem should not be done again in Ethereum, but rather the pioneering market space brought about by the combination of BTC and DeFi, which has the largest crypto market.At present, the market has practices trying to make assets better circulate, issue better and obtain more leverage on the second floor.
Only by leaping the basic ecology of the crypto world will it provide possibilities for AI and Web3.
03 Iteration: The application market led by AI and Web3
As mentioned earlier, Web3 has not yet entered the application era, and to a large extent, Web3 application development is subject to the threshold of public chains.Some practices with good Web3 iterative Web2 application scenarios have been stranded due to the performance of public chains and protocol thresholds.However, it is the practice of “AI+Web3” that opens up the gap in the Web3 application market.
Of course, “AI+Web3” is still subject to the infrastructure ecosystem, and AI on-chain is a cutting-edge proposition, but the progress of this incident depends on the development team’s understanding of AI on-chain.Compared with the development teams in Web3 social networking, chain games and other tracks, we have reason to believe that the AI development team’s understanding and practice of AI on-chain will be more in-depth and cutting-edge.
Even, we can further imagine that the practice of AI ecology based on big models and Web3 ecology based on public chains in this era is likely to be the foundation for them to meet in the metaverse in the future.Therefore, it is optimistic that several “AI+Web3” projects with a total of more than 1 billion U will appear in 2024, and thus drive the encryption world into the era of Web3 application, including Web3 social networking, chain games, and the Web3 media we are in.The market will also be active in this cycle, and even features specialized in serving “AI+Web3”. For example, MugglePay, which is committed to helping companies accept cryptocurrency payments, has shifted its development focus in 2024 from e-commerce to AI and gaming fields., and launched the original subscription payment (Web3 subscription) function for AI service providers; StreamAi, which provides data storage and precise push for AI, is committed to becoming the largest cloud service provider for “Web3 network, space interstellar network”.And ChatGPT for “programs, robots”.
However, we need to clarify the difference between the active “AI+Web3” in this cycle and the “AI+Web3/blockchain = civilization and stopping” we once proposed.This cycle “AI+Web3” is just a collection of application scenarios and can be understood in the inertial iteration logic of “Internet+”.However, in the next decade or even decades, the AI, which continuously improves productivity, and the complete production relationship between Turing and even the social relationship changes, will meet in the meta-cosmic storm, and mankind will enter a new era of digital advancement.
Of course, all this depends on the practice of these active “AI+Web3” projects in 2024.
Conclusion:
This will probably be the last bull and bear iteration with Bitcoin, and this will probably be a bull market cycle that has been recorded in history.Since then, the Web3/blockchain has established an order for AI/intelligent networks, and the native asset market in the crypto world driven by this will also expand rapidly; at the same time, the physical world asset digitalization (RWA) has also entered a fast track and the crypto marketAssets will gradually surpass the financial asset market in the traditional physical market.
On this basis, people’s imagination of the metaverse began to fall, and the two main lines of the construction of the metaverse (AI and Web3) unfolded in sequence and will eventually converge in the metaverse.The latest news is that Sora has amazing generation capabilities, and OPENAI has promoted a big step in the construction of the metaverse.But Web3 in the encryption world is not behind. The current constraint is more basic hardware equipment and network facilities, especially network facilities. A fatal question is whether users in the Chinese-speaking world can believe China Mobile?While human elites are laying out technological highlands that are related to the future, China Mobile is still busy consuming user traffic in exchange for more user phone bills.I hope that there will be solutions to this kind of problem, using the Web3 world method.
There are many more things to look forward to in 2024.mutual encouragement!
