jakiro
Author: Socra, Bitchain Vision
With the arrival of Bitcoin halving, the Runes Rune Agreement was officially launched.I thought the Bitcoin ecosystem could set off a third wave, but unexpectedly, multiple rune ecosystem projects made their debut and reached their peak.Many investors have suffered heavy losses due to casting runes, and the price of inscriptions in the secondary market is almost halfway.
On the eve of the launch of the backtrack rune, it is highly anticipated.Runestone floor price has risen to up to 0.095 BTC, multiple projects have established pledge airdrop rune rules, and community members have prepared their wallets in advance.However, the Runes protocol, which claims to surpass BRC-20, does not seem to escape the law of death that will surely die, and does not even bring considerable benefits to early inscription newcomers like the ordinals protocol.
The two-level reversal is that investors who were previously optimistic about the Runes agreement have gradually questioned the innovation of its technology.At this moment, OKX stood up and announced on April 29 that it would launch RUNECOIN (RSIC•GENESIS•RUNE) on OKX Jumpstart, and the project will be officially launched the next day, which undoubtedly brought some of the money to rune investors.confidence.But will the rune track improve?
On the day of going online, when the market is smashed
On April 20, the Bitcoin halving arrived, and the Runes protocol was launched.The protocol creator Casey Rodarmor hardcoded the rune 0 “UNCOMMON•GOODS” he deployed in the Runes protocol, while the remaining 9 runes are no longer hardcoded into the Runes protocol because the token name is not very creative.This allowed big players and institutions to see wealth opportunities and fought one after another, which once caused the price of Gas to soar.
However, the high expectations and high cost efforts did not receive equal returns. Since the launch of the Runes protocol, multiple rune projects have fallen quickly after experiencing a short highlight moment, and only a few head runes have shown good performance.Can.
According to the chart provided by Dune user @cryptokoryo_research, since the rune transaction volume on the Bitcoin network on April 20, it has reached its peak on April 23 only. Runes’ daily transaction volume exceeded 750,000, but has declined all the way since then. 4On the 30th of the month, there were 93,000 transactions.
Split the steps of the Runes protocol to see more intuitively the significant decrease in the runes data.Among them, the decline in rune casting is the most obvious, mainly due to the surge in on-chain transaction fees and the decline in rune project market performance.
Runestone, a star project before the launch of the Runes agreement, once ranked second in the NFT market value ranking, second only to CryptoPunks.This surprised countless investors at the explosive power of the rune, and at the same time, it was full of expectations for its prospects.However, it took a long time, and Runestone failed to stay strong after all.
According to CoinGecko data, Runestone floor price highest soared to 0.095 BTC on April 11, but fell nearly straight from 0.0775 BTC on April 21, and is currently only 0.018 BTC, a drop of 81%.
In contrast, for other runes 1 to 9 projects, the runes with higher popularity in the community are still unavoidable.
As of the time of writing, according to OKX data, the average price of Rune 1, Z•Z•Z•Z•FEHU•Z•Z•Z•Z•Z•Z is at its peak when it debuted, with a total trading volume of 14.94 BTC, of which in AprilThe trading volume on the 24th day peaked at 6.45 BTC, and the trading volume on April 30 was only 0.33 BTC. The current floor price is 37,990 sats (valued at approximately US$24.22).
2 91% of the total rune DECENTRALIZED was allocated to the Pre-Rune series Prometheans, but the Prometheans fell sharply after the snapshot ended.Floor prices fell all the way from the high of 0.0845 BTC and are currently at 0.016 BTC.
The rune 3 DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON launched Gate.io on April 25th. The token name is DOG. Its price has risen all the way to US$0.0057, but it is currently only US$0.00315.
Rune 9 LOBO•THE•WOLF•PUP is also online at Gate.io, with a maximum price of US$0.0028, but the current price is US$0.0009.
Among many rune projects, only Z•Z•Z•Z•Z•FEHU•Z•Z•Z•Z•Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, Z, ZThe market value of the rune’s RSIC•GENESIS•RUNE projects exceeded 100 million, and the Rune 4th Rune THE•RUNIX•TOKEN and Rune 2th Rune DECENTRALIZED exceeded 50 million US dollars, and the rest were all lower than this number.
Under the tide: low recognition, excessive hype, lack of innovation
The overall performance of the rune sector so far is disappointing, which is due to its own insufficient technological innovation and the factors that are overhyped by external markets.
First of all, the rune itself has MEME attributes, but its recognition is not high.On April 21, Casey Rodarmor liked the rune WANKO•MANKO•RUNES project party’s pre-mining mechanism, the latter’s price rose by more than 450% on the same day.Casey also posted on social media that “Runes are built for Degen and Memecoin”, but all rune names are currently very verbose and are very unfriendly to non-English users.
Ordinal Theory Handbook stipulates that rune names must be between 1 and 28 characters, and the length limit can only be used with letters from A to Z, and the names must be unique, regardless of spaces.The initial 4 months of online launch will be at least 13 letters, and there will be 1 digit decrease every four months thereafter.This means that only 3 digits can be reduced in a year.
For this, Casey says the Runes protocol has a minimum name length built in to prevent so-called name squatting, which is mainly attributed to the idea of unique names.
However, this type of runes is obviously more difficult to welcome than MEMEs that are easy to remember, such as DOG, SHIB, and PEPE.
Secondly, the runes were overdrafted before they went online. As early as December last year, Casey announced that the Runes protocol mainnet will be launched along with Bitcoin halving.This is nearly five months apart, which is enough for various capital speculation to raise related concept projects.
Especially the inscription wealth effect brought by the Ordinals agreement has greatly boosted the FOMO sentiment of many investors.Based on the principle of preferring to sell the wrong ones rather than miss it, I bet on the eve of the rune agreement being launched early.The crypto market has a tradition of buying news and selling facts, so when the incident really happens, the real trader has already begun to close the net and prepare to fish.
The most obvious example is the Runestone mentioned above. With the completion of the Runestone snapshot on April 22, each Runestone NFT held by block 840,269 can obtain 889,806 DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON runes (3 symbols)Article), the floor price of the project fell 59.5% in 24 hours.
Finally, although Casey Rodarmor repeatedly belittles the BRC-20 protocol and praises the Runes protocol as safer, simpler and more efficient, as far as its technology itself is concerned, it does not have much innovation in the Bitcoin network.And there was a similar Atomicals protocol long before the Runes protocol.
For example, KOL@Bai Cai once posted that Casey lacks basic respect for BRC 20, which takes Ordinals, and its creator Domo, and enjoys the halo and traffic brought by BRC 20, but he is extremely disgusted with this standard.At the same time, he borrowed the idea of the UTXO-base protocol from Atomicals to create Runes, but never mentioned it.
In addition, the fairness of runes compared to inscriptions is also questionable.Most of the inscriptions on the market use the Fair Launch method, but there are more or less reservations in rune projects.And the top-ranked runes are usually snatched by institutions or big players.
Conclusion
The inscription wealth effect brought by the Ordinals protocol has led the crypto market to believe that the Bitcoin ecosystem can be further developed and mined, but the current market performance of the rune sector can be described as a pot of cold water.This includes both the impact of the overall market for encryption and the factors that are insufficient in its own product strength.
The current good news for the rune track is: Rune tokens launched on exchanges including OKX, OKX Ventures cooperates with OnePiece Labs, Merlin Chain and Franklin Templeton to support Runes incubators, RuneChain launched on rune cross-chain bridges, exchanges, etc.wait.
In short, the ecological infrastructure around the rune section is under construction.And as far as the current data level is concerned, the top rune projects are about to stabilize and recover.Therefore, investors do not have to be overly pessimistic, and may as well continue to observe the progress of the Runes agreement.
