jakiro
Author: God’s grace
In the era of liquidity flooding, Bitcoin is becoming the ultimate Noah’s Ark for fiat currency torrents.
At the recent KBW 2025 Summit in South Korea, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, once again gave a shocking view:Bitcoin price may soar to $3.4 million by 2028.
This number sounds like crazy?But when you understand the logic behind it, you will find that this may be a rational warning to the collapse of the global monetary system.
Currency flooding, Federal Reserve’s crazy money printing machine is restarting
Hayes pointed directly at the core of the problem: The Trump administration is pushing the United States to return to the “yield curve control” (YCC) policy of the 1940s.
During World War II, the U.S. government cooperated with the Federal Reserve to manipulate the bond market in order to raise funds, limiting the 10- to 25-year Treasury bond interest rates to 2.5%.Now, the same script is ongoing again.
U.S. federal debt hasBreak through the 40 trillion US dollar mark, interest expenses account for 4.2% of GDP.In this case, the Treasury Department is actually injecting liquidity into the market far exceeds the Fed’s QE scale through operations of issuing Treasury bonds and adjusting repurchase rates.
Credit tsunami, huge wave of $15 trillion
Hayes predicts that the United States will usher in huge credit creation in the next three years, and the scale may reach$15.2 trillion——Equivalent to more than 3 times the credit expansion during the epidemic!
Where does this money come from?The Trump administration is pushing for two key policies: lowering short-term interest rates and implementing yield curve control.
The driving force behind this credit tsunami is the acceleration of the US reindustrialization process and the recovery of regional banks’ credit expansion capabilities.In other words, it takes a huge amount of money to rebuild the industrial foundation of the United States.
Bitcoin Mathematics, How to calculate the price of $3.4 million
Hayes uses the model of “credit per dollar to create a bitcoin price increase”.
The slope during the epidemic is: for every $1 credit created, the price of Bitcoin rose by $0.19.The calculation formula is simple: 115,000 × (1 + 0.19 × 15.2 trillion US dollars in credit growth) ≈ 3.4 million US dollars.
Although Hayes himself admitted that “this number sounds ridiculous”, he emphasizedThe basic trend of Bitcoin entering the million-dollar era has been established.
Scarcity vs. inflation, the ultimate value proposition of Bitcoin
As fiat currency liquidity spreads around the world, fixed supply of assets will usher in explosive growth.There are only about 21 million Bitcoins, and institutions have swallowed 1.25 million through ETFs (accounting for 6% of the circulation), while only 160,000 new coins per year after the production cut.
This scarcity is the basis for its soaring value.Hayes explained: “When central banks of various countries print money to save the market, the 21 million fixed supply of Bitcoin is Noah’s Ark.”
Against the backdrop of the collapse of global fiat currency credit, the fixed supply of Bitcoin makes it an ideal tool to fight currency depreciation.
Smart funds have been deployed, and institutional giants have taken action quietly
The market smart funds have been laid out:
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MicroStrategy(Renamed Strategy): 632,000 Bitcoins have been stocked, with a cost price of US$73,000, the more you increase, the more you buy it
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Standard Chartered Bank: Reaffirm the target of US$200,000 by the end of 2025, and institutional buying is expected to accelerate
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National level: Trump considers using confiscated assets to build strategic Bitcoin reserves
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On-chain data: The holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders account for more than 80%, and liquidity was frantically drained!
Global capital migration, Bitcoin becomes the only lifeboat
Hayes’ predictions are not only based on U.S. policy, but also take into account changes in global capital flows.He believes that the transformation of foreign capital investment model will create a favorable environment for Bitcoin.
“Bitcoin is when global capital leaves the United States and beyond.The most perfect and only lifeboat”.
If foreign investors no longer invest in U.S. Treasury bonds, the Fed will need to take quantitative easing measures, which may inadvertently benefit Bitcoin as a non-inflation asset class.
Risk and Opportunity, Crazy Prophecy and Cruel Reality
Despite Hayes’ bold predictions, he also frankly said, “I’m almost 100% sure this won’t happen.”His goal is not to accurately predict, but to confirm the direction: in the context of continuous monetary expansion, Bitcoin is still the strongest track.
Bitcoin investment still faces huge risks: volatility, security breaches and policy repetitions pose a triple risk.Although regulation is relaxing, the black swan event may trigger a halving plunge.
How do ordinary people deal with it?Only play the “track with regulatory endorsement”, be wary of the “pseudo-stable currency trap”, and understand the “window period of policy signals”.
In his new book “The Big Cycle”, Dalio warned that the scale of U.S. debt has reached 6 times annual revenue, and interest expenses account for 50% of the budget gap.He suggested that investors allocate 15% of their assets to gold and 5% to Bitcoin.
But Bitcoin may have an advantage over gold:You cannot transfer money in gold in seconds, nor can you expect U.S. debt to maintain its value in a political deadlock.Only Bitcoin has truly achieved freedom, censorship and anti-inflation.
When the Fed’s balance sheet has exceeded $9 trillion, the Bank of Japan’s Treasury bonds have exceeded 260% of GDP.We are standing in the watershed of currency historyThe collapse of the old order and the birth of the new system often follow each other.
