jakiro
Author: Uncle Source: X,@jianshubiji
“Is the encryption end? Have you made money in this round of bull market?”
Before talking about this round of market, let’s review the laws of the last round and A -share bull market
1. Market speculation logic
A shares are recognized as the hype in the bull market to the logic of the securities firms to sing the drama, followed by high -quality blue chips such as insurance real estate, the steel and coal colors are dancing, and finally the mad cow of the subject stocks.Small tickets fly.At the end of the bull market, account opening needs to find relationships. Students no longer want to go to class. Workers do not want to go to work. Security and aunts began to share stock trading experience.Listed companies are crazy to increase or decrease their holdings, and shareholders have no brain to take over.
Looking back at the encryption bull market in 2021, the same taste is quite the same. First of all, the narrative opening of Defi Summer. The double rise of TVL has driven UNI and AAVE to rise crazy.Both themes and narratives have opened a round of rise, which is several times light, while stronger or even hundreds of times.In the middle and late stages of the bull market, the encryption market ushered in the rise of the MEME sector. The most representative of which such as Doge and Shib. After the rise of MEME, new narratives represented by the chain tour and the Yuan universe, such as AXS and Sand, the marketCrazy speculation, after the hype, the market has been adjusted by various factors, and has never returned.
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Compared with the bull market in different fields, we can find that its core logic is assets with high definition and high -value assets, followed by hype and hot spots and tracks.EssenceHowever, with the rapid development and iteration of the blockchain, three years have passed, we have more narratives and tracks, such as the second floor of Ethereum, pledge, inscription runestone, AI, etc.It will replace the old narrative of the last round of bull market, so from the perspective of the subject matter, it is impossible to summarize the laws and what kind of cycle the current market has developed to what is the current market developed. Here we can summarize the rules through the market value.
Core assets (ie BTC and ETH) -The high market value-mid-market value-low market value-MEME-NFT /others
Second, the change and difference of the bull market in this round
So, have you made money in this round of bull market?
Do you think that the funding benefits are insufficient, and the optimistic track sector accidentally call back?
Value currency can’t run meme currency?Is the income not as fast as fried dogs?
Gamefi data is constantly high -financing but can’t run out of explosion?
The most direct feeling of this round of bull market is that the capital liquidity is insufficient, the effect of making money is poor, and there is no state of bloom. ETF has injected super liquidity into the BTC through the ETF. However, this liquidity cannot spread to different games to different games.Although the Daohe sector, although there are expectations of the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts, it still cannot guarantee that the market’ s interest cutting interest rate cuts will not be guaranteed to greatly improve the current status of the crypto market.We need to know that the funds out of interest rate cuts may not inject the encryption market as soon as possible, and it may also fill the liquidity of the stock market and the property market. After the liquidity of these markets overflows, it will flow into the crypto market.
Therefore, in the case of insufficient capital liquidity, the passing of the ETF will occur, that is, an extreme situation, that is, the core assets will rise, the other market value will not change or even fall, and the emotional influence of MEME is rising due to the emotional influence of short -term hot money.However, this rise in the Meme sector is not long -term sustainable rise. Sometimes it can only last for a few days or even hours, which is also a manifestation of insufficient funds.
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Insufficient funds:
Why is there insufficient funds?The fundamental reason is that the flow of funds and transmission have changed structural changes. The funds injected by ETF can only be transmitted to BTC and ETH, and cannot overflow like a reservoir.
We can understand that the current encrypted market is a reservoir, and different sectors and track are a reservoir. Only when the storage pool of the previous layer is filled with water, it will overflow to the next layer.According to the time node of the previous round of bull market, we can simply demonstrate the different states of the flow of funds in a market.Only when the market funds cannot choose or saturate in the current field can the market look for lower value, and the next floor is looking for more opportunities, and most of the funds are unavoidable or the market funds are returned to saturation.Because every layer of layer, which means that the current level of money -making, weakened, the risks brought about will gradually increase.
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The secondary market with collapse first market:
Let’s take the recent ZK as an example. How many people have been fighting against three years.This is also a manifestation of insufficient funds, that is, the current first -class hairy airdrop market cannot accommodate so many people.In the final analysis, when the current liquidity and funds of the secondary market are not abundant, many people come from the secondary market to the first -level market to seek opportunities, but many people have never thought that there is no secondary market.What is it?It is really difficult to make money in the first -level market.It is not better than a professional studio, and it is also easy to be watched. It can be said that ordinary people in the current first -level market are difficult to survive. It is already a science and technology battlefield.
Secondly, the tokens with a market value of sky -high value have continued to squeeze the liquidity further. From the previous BB and Not, to the recent IO and ZK, including the future BLAST, its high valuations squeezed the room for rising.After the new coins are listed, the funds will be more or less chosen to flow into these coins, which further squeezes the liquidity of the cottage.In fact, from the recent performance of the first day of Singapore Coin, it can be seen that the market is too short of money, the opening price is expected to be expected, and even the situation of NOT can earn 50%.Questions about the current value of Singapore Coins.
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High FDV causes not to take over:
According to the report of Binance Research in May 2024, in the “Observation and Thinking of the Status of High Valuation, Low Circulation tokens”, we can find that its current MC/FDV is the lowest in the past three years.It is close to the total year of 2023.Binance said that if the future tokens want to maintain the current price, it will need a liquidity of 80 billion US dollars.
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In the case of constant demand, low flow volume can easily increase the price of currency in the short term, thereby pushing up FDV.Taking the ZK that launched yesterday as an example, the market value is close to $ 1 billion, but this is still a large number of unlocked. Is the valuation a bit too “high”?
So who is high FDV favorable for?
From the perspective of the project party, high FDV may promote the rise in market value, and the future potential income opportunities will increase
From the perspective of VC, the potential high valuation driven by high FDV represents VC performance and indicators
From the perspective of the exchange, high FDV does not affect the exchange itself
From the perspective of retail investors, high FDV generally represents the long time of the project’s continuous operation and the possibility of running.However, this further caused retail investors to be unwilling to take over the high FDV tokens, and instead of circulating more interesting MEME tokens, such as Not, such as a good example.
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Therefore, we are caught in a bull market that does not take over each other, that is, retail investors do not receive VC coins, because of the number of days caused by high FDV.The institution does not take over MEME coins, and its low value and violent fluctuations cause the agency to believe that there is no investment value.As a result, everyone can play, and the market cannot form a unified consensus.
3. Summary
At present, the fundamentals of the market have changed compared with the past few years, and the investment logic used in advance needs to be adjusted and changed. We believe that the situation of insufficient funds and low valuations is the core reasons for this round of bull market to make money poorly.As a result, the secondary market transmission to the primary market is not well performed. The witch situation and the studio cluster of the first -level market have further reduced the money -making effect.
We cannot give accurate answers to determine which step of the current crypto market, and we don’t know if BTC will really exceed 100,000.However, the market problem we rationally analyzed rationally is the most needed problem at the moment. Perhaps the market will only come after the market gradually solves and changes.
