jakiro
Author: CryptoCompound, Compiler: Shaw Bitcoin Vision
Bitcoin just did something it hasn’t done since June – it fell below six figures.The market watched with consternation as Bitcoin prices briefly touched below $99,000 before rebounding.It was a violent and emotional move that caused leverage traders to be liquidated and panicked latecomers who were accustomed to seeing $100,000 as the new bottom.
But the fact is: this is not the end of the bull cycle.This is a necessary correction – the market needs a healthy cooling off after months of sustained gains.Data shows leverage is being cleared, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows are normalizing and market sentiment is recalibrating.If you know what to look for, you’ll find that this dip is less about panic than it is about opportunity.
What triggered the decline?
To understand this pullback, we must focus on three key forces that collided in just a few days: stock selloffs, slowing ETF inflows, and unwinding of leverage.
1. The connection between cryptocurrencies and the stock market.
Cryptocurrencies are now more correlated with the stock market than ever before, especially with technology and artificial intelligence stocks.Earlier this week, the Nasdaq fell more than 1%, and Bitcoin fell almost simultaneously.Why is this happening?Because the same investor group is driving the rise in both – momentum traders chasing high beta values such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors and digital assets.
When shares of Palantir and Nvidia fell, risk appetite fell across all speculative assets.Bitcoin’s plunge is not due to its own fundamental problems, but fluctuates with the overall risk cycle.
2. ETF fund inflows cool down.
Bitcoin ETFs experienced consecutive net outflows for the first time in months.After months of sustained demand, some investors are choosing to take profits or reduce risk as stocks weaken.The shift doesn’t break the overall trend, but it eliminates a key buffer.
When ETF inflows stall, spot demand also weakens.That’s why the sell-off is happening faster than before – there’s not enough structural demand to absorb the selling pressure.
3. The wave of leverage liquidation.
CoinGlass data shows that the amount of long contract positions that were forced to liquidate exceeded $1 billion within 48 hours, which was the largest liquidation wave in recent months.High funding rates, excessive leverage, and crowded long contract trading combined to trigger this storm.When the price of Bitcoin fell below $100,000, stop-loss orders were triggered at the same time, triggering a chain of liquidations.
This was not panic selling by institutions, but rather traders being forced to liquidate their positions due to insufficient margin – something that has happened dozens of times in the history of cryptocurrencies.
technical drawing
Bitcoin’s chart still looks good – but it’s in a delicate spot.
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short term support level: US$95,000 to US$97,000.This area coincides with the consolidation area in June and July and is where most of the liquidation occurred.If Bitcoin can hold this range, it may establish a bottom before continuing higher.
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resistance level: US$100,000 to US$102,000.In the cryptocurrency space, psychological price levels are crucial.If the price can decisively regain the $100,000 mark and be supported by stable funding sources and a rebound in ETF demand, this is a bullish reversal pattern based on historical experience.
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Downside risks: US$90,000 to US$85,000.If stock market weakness persists and ETF outflows persist, Bitcoin could test lower again.But unless these support levels are breached on increased volume, this is still a normal pullback in a bull market and not a trend reversal.
Zooming into the weekly chart, you’ll find an important message: Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend.The highs keep getting higher, the lows keep getting higher – the structure is still intact.This pullback only dampened excessive optimism in the short term.
macro background
The macro backdrop helps explain why cryptocurrency volatility has increased.
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Uncertainty over U.S. government shutdownCreated temporary risk aversion.
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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Strengthens, putting pressure on all risk assets.
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After the Fed issued hawkish remarks,U.S. Treasury yields edge higher.
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Artificial intelligence concept stocks fall back, eliminating the speculative power of the overall market.
When macro uncertainty meets crowded cryptocurrency positions, a pullback is inevitable.But beneath the surface, there are no structural negative factors yet.Inflation is cooling, global market liquidity remains abundant, and central banks are more inclined to cut interest rates than to raise them.
This is not a bearish environment for digital assets, but rather a volatile one.
ETF flows: The real pulse of the market
ETF flows have become the pulse of Bitcoin price action.
After months of consistent inflows, early November saw the first consecutive net outflows totaling hundreds of millions of dollars.The outflows are minuscule compared to the more than $15 billion accumulated since the ETF was approved, but enough to temporarily reverse market sentiment.
These flows are critical for one reason: they represent real spot demand.They are not leveraged futures contracts or short-term speculation – they are long-term holders accumulating Bitcoin through regulated channels.
When money flows resume (which they will definitely happen), they will act like a magnet pulling Bitcoin back above $100,000.Historically, every ETF slowdown lasts one to two weeks before buyers return.If this pattern continues, the recovery may come sooner than most expect.
Market Psychology: Fear Reset
Every bull market has its moments of panic.Moments of panic can clear leverage, reset expectations, and lay the foundation for the next wave of gains.
When the price of Bitcoin reached $100,000, many new traders thought “this time is different.”They firmly believe that Bitcoin will only go up—until it doesn’t.Now, these traders can only sit on the sidelines and lick their wounds.And that’s exactly what long-term investors like to see.
When market sentiment turns from enthusiasm to skepticism, the market becomes worth investing in again.
One reliable metric is: funding rate.After surging into positive territory, it has now fallen back to neutral levels.This means fewer overcrowded long positions and a more balanced market structure.Smart money thrives during these times—when the noise dissipates and belief matters more than momentum.
What happens next?
Three situations may occur next.
Basic scenario (probability 60%): Range consolidation and reconstruction.Bitcoin will consolidate between $95,000 and $105,000 over the next 1-3 weeks.ETF fund flows will once again turn neutral or positive, with funding rates remaining flat.This will set the stage for Bitcoin to gradually recover towards $110,000 later this month.→This is the most likely outcome.
Bearish scenario (25% probability): Bitcoin may further pull back to $85,000 to $90,000.If the stock market decline continues, or ETF outflows continue throughout the week, Bitcoin could test deeper support again.Although still in an overall uptrend, a more severe pullback will test investors’ patience.
Bullish scenario (15% probability): Quickly recover and soar.If ETF capital flows quickly turn positive and the Nasdaq rebounds, Bitcoin is expected to quickly recover $100,000 and return to $110,000 to $115,000 within a few days.This will be a classic “failed rally” that punishes short sellers who took advantage of the dip.
Key indicators at a glance
Over the next 10 days, this information will tell you everything:
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ETF fund inflow/outflow— Two to three consecutive trading days of positive numbers indicate demand is picking up again.
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funding rate– If it remains near neutral levels, the market is healthy.
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Open interestRising while price remains flat – early accumulation; open interest rises while price rises – trend resumes.
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stock market sentiment– Nasdaq rebounds typically precede cryptocurrency recoveries by 24-48 hours.
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On-chain fund flow– Pay attention to exchange balances; falling balances mean investors are moving Bitcoin to cold wallets (positive).
When multiple such indicators turn positive at the same time, a bottom may have occurred.
overall view
From a more macro perspective, this pullback has not changed Bitcoin’s long-term development trend.Institutional adoption continues.Exchange-traded fund (ETF) structures create a continuous flow of capital into the market.Stablecoin supply is increasing again – a leading indicator of cryptocurrency liquidity.
At the same time, miners are making huge profits, computing power continues to hit record highs, and layer 2 expansion technology is developing faster than ever before.
What is happening is a mood swing within a fundamentally strong market.Two or three of these moments occur every cycle—times when faith is tested.And each time, those who understand the market structure and remain patient ultimately emerge stronger.
For both professional investors and serious retail investors, this decline provides clear signals:
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The bull market is not over, but has entered a period of maturity.
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The market structure remains solid and liquidity areas are clear.
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ETF capital inflows, macro risk sentiment and capital conditions are the three major levers that influence market trends.
A price drop below $100,000 is not a “crash” but a reset of market sentiment – and resets often contain opportunities.
Once ETF demand returns and leverage is rebuilt at a reasonable pace, Bitcoin could quickly retest $110,000 to $115,000, and if liquidity conditions remain good, $125,000 to $130,000 would be a reasonable price target by the end of the year.
What’s the smart thing to do now?Watch where the money is flowing.Gradually increase your holdings.Let the market confirm its direction rather than being swayed by emotions.Because history has proven that after every panic sell-off, there will be a wave of rising prices, and this wave of prices is often not optimistic until more than half of the rise.
final thoughts
Every bull market tells us the same thing: moments of doubt are often moments of opportunity.
Bitcoin falling below $100,000 does not mean it is weakening, but it reveals where investor confidence truly lies.Short-term traders left the market one after another; long-term investors quietly accumulated.
If the next few weeks are anything like previous cycles, the sub-$100,000 price point will soon look like a gift rather than a warning.
