jakiro
Author: Jessy, Climber, Bitchain Vision Realm
On July 23, Beijing time, the US SEC officially announced that the Ethereum spot ETF products can be listed and traded, which is undoubtedly a historic moment for Ethereum.
Yesterday, it happened to be the tenth anniversary of Ethereum officially launched ICO financing. Along the way, Ethereum continued to prove its value.After years of regulatory resistance and countless registered documents, the 19 B-4 forms of the Ethereum Eto ETF were approved in May this year, but it still needs to be officially started after the S-1 registration statement takes effect.After a lapse of two months, the spot Ethereum ETF finally entered the market and became a cryptocurrency representative after Bitcoin.
The formal approval transaction also directly proved the reputation of Ethereum deserved “the king of thousands of chains”.After ten years of long -term cultivation, we may wish to re -understand Ethereum and explore the true value of this questioned and controversial “world computer” again, and the impact of Ethereum spot ETF through the development of the entire encryption industry.
1. Ethereum’s past and present life
Ethereum is a decentralized open source blockchain platform with smart contract functions.ETH is the native cryptocurrency of the platform, which is calculated based on the market value is the second largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin.As of the writing, its market value is about $ 420 billion.
Ethereum is a programmable blockchain network, and ETH is the tokens that drive this network.Bitcoin is the first killer application of the blockchain, but due to the lack of programming, it is difficult to extend more functions outside of the value storage function.As an early Bitcoin researcher, Vitalik Buterin hopes to support more decentralized applications based on blockchain network programming, so Ethereum came into being.
During the Discipline:
2013
At the end of 2013, Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, released Ethereum’s first white paper, and successively summoned a group of developers who recognized the concept of Taifang in the global cryptographic currency community and launched the project.
During the period from December 2013 to January 2014, the focus of Ethereum’s work was to start the vision depicted by Vitalik in Ethereum White Paper in Ethereum.In the end, the team believed that Genesis pre -sale was a good idea. After a long and layered discussion, in order to create a suitable infrastructure and legal strategy, the team decided to postpone the pre -sale of Ethereum in February 2014.
2014
In February 2014, Ethereum is a very important month. All aspects of Ethereum are moving forward: community growth, writing code, writing wiki content, business infrastructure, and legal strategy.This month, Vitalik announced the Ethereum project for the first time at the Miami Bitcoin Conference, and held the first “ask us anything” event on Reddit. The core development team became a world -class cryptographic currency team.
In July 2014, Ethereum carried out a 42 -day Ethereum pre -sale, raised a total of 31,531 Bitcoin. According to the price of Bitcoin at that time, it was equivalent to US $ 18.43 million, which was the second largest crowdfunding project at that time.The number of Ethereum is 60,102,216.
2015
In March 2015, the team issued a series of statements on the release of Genesis blocks.In May, the team released the last test network (POC9) codenamed Olympic.In order to better test the network, during the Olympic stage, members participating in the test network will receive the Ethereum reward given by the team.There are many types of rewards, which mainly include testing and mining rewards and submission of BUG rewards.
In July 2015, the official Ethereum network was released, which also standardized the official operation of the Ethereum blockchain.
2016
On March 14, 2016 (Period Restric Plus), Ethereum issued the HomeStead stage.At this stage, Ethereum provides a wallet with a graphical interface, which has been greatly improved. Ethereum is no longer exclusive to developers. Ordinary users can also easily experience and use Ethereum.
2017
On March 1, 2017, Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) announced its establishment, which aims to create an enterprise -level blockchain solution to jointly develop industrial standards.
In July 2017, hackers were called for vulnerability in the vulnerability existing in Parity wallet 1.5 or higher versions.30 million US dollars of losses.In November, due to the accidental code vulnerability triggered by developers and users, the Parity multi -signature wallets that were repaired after July 20 were paralyzed, resulting in a total of 930,000 US dollars worth more than 154 million US dollars.It was frozen and locked, and it has not been recovered so far.
2018
In September 2018, Bitcoin core developer Jeremy Rubin published an article “ETH’s collapse cannot be avoided” on the U.S. technology media Techcrum, saying that even if Ethereum continues to survive, ETH’s value will inevitably return to zero.Ethereum founder Vitalik acknowledged the existence in the response: “If Ethereum does not change, Jeremy Rubin’s remarks may be right.”This remarks caused the price of ETH to fall.At the same time, many Ethereum projects have begun to transfer to other public chains in EOS, Bo Farm, etc. Some people worry that Ethereum will be replaced.Under the influence of ETH’s price, Ethereum’s entire network computing power began to shrink. According to EtherScan.io’s computing power statistics, the computing power of Ethereum from September to November has fallen by 20 %, from nearly 300th/s to shrinking to to to near240th/s.
On December 10, 2018, Vitalik announced on Twitter that the “efficiency will increase by thousands of times” with a blockchain -based blockchain -based blockchain technology in the future.
2019
In 2019, the Ethereum project was carried out by the Constantinople hard fork. This is a code that stimulates the Ethereum network to change its core consensus mechanism algorithm. After this code is startedThe difficulty of creating a new block on the network will continue to increase and eventually slow down to completely stop.After the hard fork upgrade, the state of Ethereum blockchain will change the “permanent” change.
2020
2021
On April 15, Berlin was upgraded.Berlin upgrades and optimizes the cost of fuel operations operated by some Ethereum virtual machines, and increases support for multiple trading types.
On August 5th, London upgraded the introduction of EIP-1559 (Opens in a New Tab) to reform the trading fee market. At the same time, the refund processing method of fuel costs and the Ice Age schedule were modified.
On October 27, the Bald Eagle was upgraded.The Eagle upgrade is the first letter of the plan to upgrade.It increases its support for the “Synchronous Committee” -to support the light client, and in the process of the progress of the merger, it adds punishment for the laziness and being punished by the verificationrs.
On December 9, the upgrade of the arrow -shaped glacier network delayed the difficulty bomb for several months.This is the only change introduced in this upgrade, which is essentially similar to the Muir glacier upgrade.Byzantine, Constantinople, and London’s network upgrades have also made similar changes.
2022
On September 6, Bellatrix was upgraded.Bellatrix upgrade is the plan to upgrade the second letter chain of the plan, so that the benchmark chain is prepared for merging.It has raised the punishment of the verified as a provenant due to laziness and being punished to its entire value.
On September 15, Paris was upgraded (merged).The upgrade of Paris is the consolidated transition. Ethereum’s main function ended the workload certificate and related consensus logic and launched a certificate of equity.
2023
On April 12, the Shanghai upgrade introduced the pledge withdrawal into the execution level.Shanghai upgrade and Capella upgrade at the same time, so that the block can accept the withdrawal operation. Therefore, the pledker can extract Ethereum from the letter chain to the execution layer.
2024
In March, Cancun upgraded.DENEB is the upgrade of the Ethereum consensus layer (CL), and Cancun refers to the update of the Ethereum executive layer (EL).
ETHThe peak of price and deep valley
ETH’s nearly $ 4,000 currency price and the achievement of the second cinior and large market value are not made in one day. From the picture below Ethereum price trend chart, we can intuitively see its glory and dark period.
In ETH’s price and historical trend chart, we can see that they have experienced several bull -bear conversion cycles, and the second -ranking cryptocurrency has also experienced the currency price of the ice and deep valley period, for which time the market is questioned by the market questionedEssence
In January 2018, ETH ushered in the first historical high, with a currency price of about 1,300 US dollars.Just a year ago, ETH was only about $ 10, and the increase was as high as 130 times during this period.
However, the next bear market caused ETH to a minimum of $ 100, a drop of more than 90%.This also made people doubt whether the Ethereum project is really huge.
With the arrival of the historical bull market of the encryption market in 2021, ETH continuously refreshed the historical record of prices.The highest point rose by about 49 times from May of that year to about 3,900 US dollars in May of that year to about $ 3,900 and November to $ 4,900.
However, with the arrival of the bear market and the successive thunderstorms of Terra and FTX since then, ETH also fell from a height again, and fell to nearly $ 1,000 during the period.After that, this wave of silence did not improve until October 2023.
With the expected blessing of the American Bitcoin spot ETF, the encrypted market ushered in recovery, and ETH has also risen.But ETH’s performance in this round of this cycle disappoints investors.Not only did he not follow the steps of the Big Brother BTC, it reached a new high, but he was also inferior to the performance of similar public chains in terms of increase.In contrast, Solana is reborn. The price of currency rose from nearly $ 20 to $ 210, almost recovering the bear market decline.
Entering 2024, ETH went to visit $ 4,000 twice, but his ups and downs.However, this situation is expected to be broken under the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF.
3. Where is the price of Ethereum?
The approval of the Ethereum spot ETF indicates that the era when encryption integrates into the mainstream has arrived.
From the market point of view, ETF’s most direct profit is ETH itself.
There are different views on the market’s expectations.At present, the price of Ethereum has exceeded $ 3,500. Will it keep rising after the spot ETF is approved?
One point is that the price trend of the Bitcoin spot ETF can be referred to the BTC spot ETF as a reference, and it will fall slightly and then rise.
Bitcoin ETF was fully approved on January 10. Before the launch, we saw that the price of BTC rose to $ 49,000, and then fell 21%to $ 38,500 in the next 12 days.Since then, traders have seen 10 BTC spot ETFs (excluding GrayScale) daily cumulative inflows optimistic and actively bought. In the end, BTC rose 90%to $ 73,000.
Painting the gourd scoop, so it is a view that falls first and then rise. There are also the following arguments that support this view:
First, ETH has not increased much in this round, and the price of $ 3,500 is only about three times the bottom. After the spot ETF is passed, Bitcoin reaches four to five times increase.The industry generally believes that the price of ETH has been suppressed for too long in this round.
However, the possibility of the same price trend in ETH is obviously a risk. When everyone expects this situation, it will often not really happen, or at least the adjustment amplitude should be much lighter.
The fundamental reason for supporting Ethereum prices to keep up is whether the Ethereum spot ETF master can attract a large number of institutional funds.
If there is a large amount of funds flowing in, one of the laws in investment “favorable landing” is the empty air, and it will not be established.
The enthusiasm of attracting investors like the spot Bitcoin ETF may not attract investors like the spot of pensions, donation funds, and sovereign wealth funds as the audience. Ethereum is not popular.The reason may be that the Ethereum’s institutional market holds the position smaller than Bitcoin.In the US market, ETH Futures ETF only accounts for about 5%of BTC Futures ETF assets. Of course, this does not mean the possible demand for ETH ETF.
Outside the United States, both Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Trading Products (ETP) have been listed, and the assets in Ethereum ETP account for about 25%-30%of Bitcoin ETP assets.Compared with ETF’s asset proportion, GrayScale Research predicts that US spot Ethereum ETF net inflow will reach 25%-30%of the net inflow of the spot Bitcoin ETF; or in the first four months, there will be about 35The US $ 100 billion was inflow (25%-30%of the net inflow of the spot Bitcoin ETF for $ 13.7 billion since January).
In summary, everyone’s estimate of the demand for the US spot with Ethereum Etf is about 25%-30%of the spot Bitcoin ETF demand.The market value of Ethereum is about one -third of the market value of the Bitcoin. Based on the market value, the spot Ethereum ETF may have a greater impact on prices for each US $ 1.However, if the estimated amount of funds in inflows is one -third of the Bitcoin spot ETF, then after the launch of Ethereum spot ETF, its price is roughly treated and increased, which will actually be similar to Bitcoin.
However, when everyone has the expectation of falling first and then rising, the price of Ethereum may not fall, especially after the decline in the US election. After the macroeconomic favorable expectations such as interest rate cuts, everyone will hold currency.
There are also opinions that Ethereum cannot rise, and the current price is basically the top of the stage.
From the perspective of valuation, Ethereum’s valuation can be said to be higher than the Bitcoin when the spot Bitcoin ETF was launched in January.For example, a popular valuation indicator is MVRV Z-SCORE.This indicator is based on the total market value of tokens to its “realization value” ratio: the market value of the price (rather than the price of trading on the exchange) on the chain on the chain.When the spot Bitcoin ETF was launched in January this year, its MVRV Z-SCORE was relatively low, indicating that the valuation was moderate, and the space for rising prices may be greater.Since then, the crypto market has appreciated, and the ratio of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased.This may show that compared with the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF in January, the price increase room for the spot ETH ETF is relatively small.
Fourth, Ethereum spot ETFThrough the impact on the development of the industry
Why did Ethereum spot ETF pass suddenly?One of the biggest reasons is the influence of the two parties in the United States, and the two parties have shifted to encrypted attitudes.
On May 22 this year, the US House of Representatives passed the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technical Act (“FIT21”).This is a milestone encrypted market legislation.The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets.The bill was supported by the two parties and 279 votes in favor (67%). This incident also showed that cryptocurrencies became increasingly important in the political pattern, and the two parties’ attitude towards encryption undoubtedly turned to support.Both parties quickly shifted to support cryptocurrencies. The most direct promotion was that SEC approved Ethereum spot ETF.
A common cognition in the industry is that the POS Ethereum passed the spot ETF, and then the next SOL spot ETF also had a chance.After all, some institutions have submitted an application for SOL spot ETF to SEC.
Following it is the launch of more spot ETFs of cryptocurrencies.People will begin to predict the passage of spot ETFs such as Avax, PEPE, DOGE. Even though SOL is clicked by SEC as securities, it is not important. The currency circle depends on emotional and expected hype.
On the other hand, even if it is defined as a securities, maybe the spot ETF may not pass?
Whether Ethereum belongs to securities has always been a hot issue discussed in cryptocurrencies. In June this year, SEC ended a survey of Ethereum 2.0, which means that SEC will not propose to accuse ETH sales of securities transactions.
When SEC approves Ethereum spot ETF, it has to be clearly acknowledged that the albonous pledged ETH is not a securities.This will be a major policy measure of SEC.The agency has previously refused to admit that any assets other than Bitcoin are non -securities products.
This measure will also immediately affect the cases of SEC and major cryptocurrency exchanges.If Ethereum is not considered securities, many other tokens may also use similar logic to be identified as commodities, so that cryptocurrency exchanges win these legal cases.
After the Ethereum spot ETF is launched, the encryption industry may usher in a major outbreak of cottage season.The development law of the previous market cycle generally rose first, and then Ethereum rose. Ethereum, as the leader of the cottage, drove the cottage coins to skyrocket.
The logic of this round of bull market is actually that after Ethereum spot ETF is passed, more and more virtual currencies or ETFs of mixed virtual currencies enter the market. Berlaide and similar institutions issue encryption index products. This will be greatPromote the liquidity of the encrypted market.
In summary, the launch of Ethereum spot ETF is the benefits of the level of the encrypted policy from top to bottom, and the favorable policy will bring a comprehensive hug of capital.currency.
Summarize
Looking back on the long way to build the Ethereum ETF, it is full of difficulties and dangers. From being questioned by the market, it has been accepted by the US SEC to become one of the mainstream products of the traditional financial market.
The current stagnation of ETH is only a momentary market response, and the value of Ethereum can be proven under the blessing of long -termism.But the true significance is that the recognition of the US regulatory level will also embark on the road of ETFization of Bitcoin and Ethereum for other cottage coins, leaving the signs and seeds of hope.
