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December 2025,U.S. stocks experienced significant volatility, especially as tech-led selling led to major index pullbacks.As of December 12, 2025, the S&P 500 Index closed at 6827.41 points, down 1.07% on the day, and a weekly decrease of 0.63%; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23195.17 points, down 1.69%, and a weekly decrease of 1.62%.This selling mainly stems from concerns about the performance of technology giants: Broadcom warned of dilution of AI chip gross profit margins, and Oracle’s financial report showed huge AI spending but lagging returns, triggering the market’s re-evaluation of the “AI bubble”.Technology stocks such as Nvidia, AMD and Micron fell between 3% and 6%, causing funds to shift from growth stocks to value stocks and defensive sectors such as financials, medical and industrial stocks.
This fluctuation is not an isolated incident.For the whole of 2025, the S&P 500 will rise by about 16%-17%, and Nasdaq will perform better, but the concentration of the technology sector is as high as 36%, making it sensitive to negative news.Fed policy is key backdrop:On December 10, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, and announced that starting from December 12, it would purchase approximately US$40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds (mainly Treasury bills) every month to maintain adequate reserves..This technical operation is aimed at easing the pressure on the capital market, but it is not a comprehensive quantitative easing (QE), and the scale is expected to be significantly reduced in a few months.Markets initially viewed this as a positive, but then weakness in technology stocks dominated sentiment.
In the short term, this selling is seen as normal: stocks need to pull back after an extended rally to clear overheated positions.Seasonal factors support a rebound at the end of the year, and historical data shows that a “Santa Claus market” often occurs in mid-to-late December.If it rebounds after opening lower on Monday (December 15), it may confirm exhaustive selling and push the index back to record highs.However, if tech stocks remain under pressure, outflows could exacerbate volatility.
Turning to precious metals, 2025 looks strong.As of December 12,The price of gold is approximately US$4,297 per ounce, with a monthly increase of 3% and an annual increase of over 60%.;The price of silver is approximately US$62 per ounce, with a monthly increase of 18% and an annual increase of over 100%..The gold-silver price ratio shows that silver is stronger than gold, reflecting the accelerated rise in silver prices driven by industrial demand (solar energy, electric vehicles, AI data centers).The Fed’s restart of Treasury bond purchases lowered real yields and supported non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.Geopolitical uncertainty and central bank gold purchases (900 tons expected in 2025) provide structural support.
The outlook for 2026 takes center stage.Technical analysts cited the Samuel Benner cycle (a model proposed by farmers in the 19th century based on commodity and economic fluctuations) to predict 2026 as a major cycle high, which may trigger turmoil in the equity market.This cycle has a high historical accuracy and has corresponded to tops such as the Great Depression in 1929, the technology bubble in 2000, and the financial crisis in 2008.The Benner model shows that after 2026, it may enter a “hard period” until 2032, consistent with the peak of the sunspot cycle (NASA predicts a decline after the peak of 2025-2026).While not strictly scientific, it aligns with historical bear markets and should serve as a warning to investors.
Mainstream institutions are divided but cautious.JPMorgan Chase predicts that gold prices will reach US$4,000 per ounce in the second quarter of 2026, with an average of US$3,675 in the fourth quarter; Goldman Sachs expects a 6% increase in 2026; Deutsche Bank targets US$4,450; some analysts even see it reaching US$5,000.Drivers include:Fed cuts interest rates further(The market is pricing only once in 2026, but there may be more if the economy slows down),The central bank continues to purchase gold and investors demand hedging(Stagflation, de-dollarization, geo-risk).Silver prices are more explosive and are expected to rise by 7%-20% in 2026, benefiting from the gap in industrial demand.
In terms of equity markets, potential risks will increase in 2026.Technology stocks have high valuations (the top seven stocks in the S&P 500 account for 36% of the weight),AI return uncertainty could trigger a rotation or correction.If the Fed’s policy is less easing than expected, or if tariffs/trade frictions intensify, the stock market may face “crazy volatility”.The Benner cycle supports this view: funds may flow from the stock market to precious metals, causing gold and silver to rise by a further 15%-60% during the initial collapse of the stock market, and then fall back as the economic recession.
Bitcoin as a Risk Asset, the price in December 2025 will be approximately US$90,000-92,000, with an obvious downward trend.Technical charts show a descending channel with a target near $67,000,High correlation with the stock market.If the equity market is turbulent, Bitcoin may fall simultaneously, and its non-“digital gold” role will appear.
Comprehensive analysis,Volatility in late 2025 reflects market reassessment of AI narrative, but overall bull trend remains unchanged.Precious metals are expected to continue their strength in 2026 and become the first choice for safe havens; the equity market needs to be wary of risks at the top of the cycle.Investors should follow price trends: pay attention to the seasonal rebound of the stock market in the short term, and allocate precious metals to hedge uncertainty in the long term.Historical cycles remind us that booms are often followed by adjustments, and it is crucial to prepare for long position management.
Current data shows mixed market sentiment:Panic indicators have not reached extremes, but technology-led selling deserves caution.The Federal Reserve’s technical bond purchases provide liquidity support, but cannot stop cyclical forces.Precious metals have performed well in uncertain environments and are expected to continue to attract capital inflows in 2026.
