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Following Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana also caught up with an ETF popularity.
On July 8th, the official announcement showed that CBOE has submitted 19B-4 files to the US SEC on behalf of VANECK and 21Shares Solana ETF, which means that Sol ETF officially entered the approval process.As early as June 28, VANECK and 21SHARES successively announced to the US SEC S-1 application to the US SEC, and VANECK even issued an open letter to explain the measures.Coincidentally, there were gossip news from the market a few days ago, saying that Berlaide may also be applying for SOL ETF.
It is true that it is true that the institutional is concerned about this seemingly impossible ETF. It is fact. Whether this operation is an agency’s attempt to speculate or the market capture in advance.Regardless of whether the application is approved or not, SOL’s hype has successfully kicked off.
Back to June, after the successful reversal of Ethereum ETF, the next ETF was a wide range of discussions in the market.In the discussion at the time, BCH, LTC, Doge, etc. all entered the target choice, but of which, SOL was the highest voice.
The reason is quite simple.To achieve the currency of ETF applications, it is necessary to have sufficient consensus value, and the market is sufficient, otherwise the issuer will face sales issues.The market value of SOL is in the top five cryptocurrencies. The USDT located on it obviously does not meet the application conditions, and BNB is unable to involve the United States’ lawsuit. In contrast, SOL ETF can be realized.
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The second is the closeness of capital behind.Although SOL has not deliberately disclosed its own capital tendency, because the previous FTX’s high shareholding of the North American technology circle, the market almost believes that there is a endorsement of Wall Street capital behind SOL.Most of the projects are belonged to the Western camp, and SOL can be restored from less than $ 10 to 160 or even $ 200. Among them, there are also no shortage of institutional capital to help.
In this context, on June 27, the asset management giant VANECK took the lead and submitted the S-1 form about “VANECK Solana Trust” to the SEC.EssenceFrom the file, both chose the CBOE BZX exchange, which was served as custodian with Coinbase, and guaranteed that the fund would not participate in the verification or pledge SOL.
On July 8th, the Chicago Options Exchange CBOE submitted 19B-4 files for VANECK and 21Shares Solana ETFs. When the US SEC confirmed the file, the application will enter the approval period.According to the rules, the SEC will have 240 days to decide whether to approve 19B-4.
Despite the rapid progress of the publisher, the market has always been empty, the core is SOL’s historical burden.The main problem is the attribute judgment. As we all know, the main reason why Ethereum ETF was considered to be unable to pass was that SEC visited ETH as a securities, but at the time, due to the avoidance attitude of the SEC, there was no core evidence.However, SOL is nail on the boardquiltClear securities attributes.
On June 5, 2023, SEC was listed as a securities in the lawsuit of Binance. In the case with Coinbase on June 6 of that year, SOL was also listed as securities.It is not registered to engage in securities business.In June this year, SEC still insisted on claiming that 11 tokes including SOL, ADA and Algo, including SOL, ADA, and Algo, which reflected the consistent consistency of supervision.
It is listed as a securities, which means that it is necessary to comply with the disclosure requirements and regulations of the SEC, to clarify transparency and KYC, and this is obviously an anonymous cryptocurrency that is difficult to achieve, which has also become a key obstacle for SOL ETF.at the same time,Since ETF needs to be referred to the spot price, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF requires a advance indicator to trade on the Chicago Commodity Exchange (CME) transactions in the United States. Currently, there is no other currency to meet the requirements except BTC and ETH.Essence
The second is the problem of decentralization. There is no need to mention Bitcoin. The duration and economic model are destined to have a relatively decentralized degree, and Ethereum is also recognized by the regulatory agency after investigation.However, as the new chain of public chains, Solana was born in the air. It was only 5 years. SOL had previously held more than 10%of FTX’s shares, and the decentralization was obviously poor.
In fact, even the issuer is quite hesitant.In VANECK’s public letter, Matthew, director of digital asset research, mentioned, “We believe that the functions of native currency SOL are similar to other digital products, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL’s decentralized characteristics, high practicality and economic feasibility and economic feasibility and economic feasibilityThe characteristics of other established digital products are consistent, which strengthens our belief in SOL as a valuable product, and can provide use cases, developers and entrepreneurs who seek to replace double oligopoly app stores. “
“We think” has shown subjectivity, avoiding the actual attributes of SOL, avoiding discussing from a certain extent.In a recent interview, Matthew even said, “The feasibility of ETF is not necessarily related to the futures market. The uranium industry has confirmed this point. As for the encryption futures market, we think this can be realized, but we may need to change one by one.President SEC.
There are not a few supporters who adhere to the concept of generalization.According to Bloomberg Advanced ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the final period of Solana ETF is in mid -March 2025, and this year’s election is November, which means that the final approval will be decided after the supervisory group after the renewal.Bayeng won the election, solana ETF is likely to be “dying in the abdomen”, but if Trump wins, everything is possible. “
Given that the Republican and Democratic Party and the Democratic Party are well shown to the cryptocurrency group, reality may not be reversed. At the crypto round table meeting a few days ago, Anita Dunn, a senior consultant of Biden, also attended.Relief.But in other words, even if the lawsuit is changed, can the previous lawsuit be disappeared?What is more likely is that the new members continue in a relatively gentle way, otherwise the SEC function may be a joke.
In addition to regulatory, commercial feasibility also makes SOL ETFs more subtle.Many analysts in the market believe that SOL ETF will be far lower than the inflow of Bitcoin or Ethereum ETF, which will undoubtedly cause a decline in the profitability of the issuer.Earlier, Cathie Wood’s Ark Fund had withdrawn the application of Ethereum ETF because due to fierce competition between rates, the encryption ETF management fee was significantly lower than that of the ordinary variety ETF, and the input output ratio was not matched.
0xtodd pointed out that from the perspective of market share, the Ark BTC ETF is located in the fourth place of 11 ETFs, with an annual entry management fee of about 7 million US dollars, but the final conclusion is because it is not enough to make money to give up Ethereum ETF, which means that it meansThe Ark does not think that ETH can reach this level.Similarly, the market value of SOL is about $ 66.2 billion, which is only one -sixth of the market value of ETH, and 5%of the Bitcoin market value.SOL, this is about 4.5%of SOL, but in comparison, Berlaide, the Bitcoin ETF list, only manages 1.5%of BTCs.The lower market value corresponds to higher positions, which is obviously not cost -effective for publishers.
In fact, the status quo is not only SOL. Even Ethereum’s ETF has also adhered to a relatively pessimistic view that the net inflow of funds is only 15%of Bitcoin.Of course, some people expressed their optimism. As a market merchant GSR, if SOL ETF is approved, then in the background of the bear market, SOL has 1.4 times more than the increase, and it will be 3.4 times in conventional conditions.It reaches 8.9 times.
Compared with SOL, from the perspective of ETF, Litecoin and dog coins have become more optimistic currency speculations.After all, neither of the two currencies have no securities historical burden, and at the same time, the market value is also located in the top ten encryption. The founder of BitMex, Arthur Hayes and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, mentioned in the blog that “the dog coin ETF may end at the end of this cycle.Time to launch “.
On the whole, no matter whether it is approved, SOL ETF has opened the precedent of the Congzhong ETF. In the future, more currency will try to impact the capital.And if the FIT21 bill is passed, the Meme currency ETF may no longer be a dream.
This bill that has been passed by the House of Representatives clarifies the jurisdiction of CFTC to cryptocurrency, and gives decentralized judgment standards.Commodities rather than securities, to some extent clear obstacles for ETF.At present, the plan has been transferred to the Senate, but considering that the Senate may decide to re -draft the relevant bill, that is, it is necessary to re -submit it to the Senate during the review stage of the committee.Then return to the House of Representatives to decide and unify the text. This critical bill still has a long waiting period.
On the other hand, it is immediate the hype of SOL.On June 28, when the application was reported, SOL rose 7%. When the 19B-4 form was submitted on July 8, SOL responded by 8%.Recently, there were even unknown small news that Perlaide was planning to apply for the ETF.
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In terms of price trend, this is indeed a doubt that the capital side is a hype of ETF for SOL. After all, even if it is not passed, it continues to promote the true and false news during the 240 -day approval period.And whether the success or failure of the election will directly affect the price of the broader market.
However, from the perspective of retail investors, the ETF seems to be still watching and not buying it. It is still for a long time. Maybe everyone is waiting for the next more promising ETF.
