jakiro
Author: REVC, Bitchain Vision
Dowager Ethereum
The encrypted world has been known as the new continent of the edge of the Internet. The young people who are “frustrated” in Web2 enter the web3 with decentralization ideals., EVM programmability, as the most advanced web3 financial infrastructure, a track such as social SocialFi, financial DEFI, game Gamefi, and creator economy Creatfi was born on it.EssenceDecentralization Twitter, decentralized Detiktok, and decentralized WeChat (Debox) are endless.
The position of the largest public chain in Ethereum is recognized by most people, not only because of its market value, technology, etc.,,A appeal to decentralist fighter V God, in the process of nearly ten years,,Still build the Ethereum ecology according to the purest decentralist route,Compared with Ethereum, some public chains are excessively inclined to VC in ecological development mechanisms and token distribution.
V God has also been frustrated due to the imbalance of World of Warcraft heroes, so that it has the concept of building a decentralized world. Web2 “frustrated people” are more involved in the Internet market that is monopolized by large manufacturers and capital.The Chinese Internet pattern has not changed in the past 15 years,The two major camps of Ali and Tencent, during the period of ignoring supervision and user interests, dragged the new Internet unicorn into their own trenches and competed for the half of the Internet.As a result, huge social friction costs have destroyed the innovation and development of the InternetUnder the governance of the Chinese government, the entire industry has returned to the right track, but the basic pattern has been formed. Except for the unicorn in the world’s largest global valuation in recent years, it has continuously stirred the scope of various influences without borders.
In a blink of an eye, web3 was dragged down by the VC coins produced by the industry in the industry, and lost the ideal color of decentralization.In the traditional web2 world,Some investment management measures are restrained to the large plant’s battle investment department(Note: At a Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2020, “strengthening antitrust and disorderly expansion of capital” was listed as a key task of economic work.The investment department, etc., have adjusted the scale in scale),There are IPO capital market management measures for long -term governance, But in the world of web3,Blockchain financial liberalism has released encrypted migrants such as BTC and ETH, but also lacks self -purification, supervision and governance due to no organizational nature.The scam, and the phenomenon of the concept of VC assembly line production has not been verified in large quantities.We are all secondary markets.
Back to Ethereum itself, Ethereum frustration is web3The dim moment on the eve of the large -scale application,,Although the current performance of Ethereum is not as good as Bitcoin, partly because it is caused by a special global financial cycle.Bitcoin and Ethereum represent different asset attributes. In the cycle of macro -financial instability, on the eve of high inflation and interest rate cuts, Bitcoin with risk aversion attributes or inflation absorption attributes has a better performance.Bitcoin has also strengthened the status of its first encrypted assets through ETF, and the US mining company and Wall Street also recognize Bitcoin assets.
andEthereum fits the development cycle of American technology stocks,,That is, there will be a better outbreak performance in the middle and late stages,,Although the U.S. technology stocks have reached a high performance before, Ethereum performs blandly, but Ethereum is the representative infrastructure of Web3, and it is an upgraded version of Web2.In recent years, the entire narrative of Ethereum has focused on infrastructure,,Don’t pay enough attention to the application layer,,Builder and VC and Foundation will be Lego for B -end users,,That is the magic way to expand,,Create concepts to persuade VC -style entrepreneurship,,The web3 itself represents the evolution of production relationships, and a large number of VC rolls on the market on the market to the ZK track, that is, the direction of productive forces that is not good at productive forces.From the perspective of solving the problem, it seems that it is no different from Bitcoin mining, so it seems to come back again.
Let’s analyze how the user’s economic attributes change with the large -scale development and application of web3. First of allAnd there is no user. The users who entered the circle in 2021 are now deadly on Twitter. As the user’s time costs, the sensitivity to decentralization is decreased. NowWho will bear the cost of infrastructure, who will take the billions of dollars of VC coin projects at every turn.The form of VC coins allows users to pay for it, which greatly increases the threshold for Web2 users to enter Web3.
The metaphor of the image point is that web3 users from Wall Street investors to rural markets to buy food aunts. They don’t care whether the currency in their hands is decentralized.The bank and the wool on them through inflation, and they will change a currency.
Conside the development status of the POS mechanism
Whether it is Layer2 or the LSD track OR DA modularization, it is a banner of sharing security. The shared security model itself is very good, but the cost of pledged assets is a big problem. In particularEthereum, Ethereum, is inevitably affected by Ethereum, and VC favors L2 and LSD tracks, and is also the hardest hit area for VC coins.
The tokens are allocated to TVL through RESTAKE, so that the project party, Ethereum ecology, and large households are win -win. The only loser is the market and users.Structures or vouchers should not be an individual or organization that can contribute to the operation and development of the project itself? This simple and rude way pledge can meet the needs of the project party’s rapid rise in TVL, and caters to the wallets sold by large households.The expansion demand is derived from a deformed business model. The pledge is not only given to the token, but the project party will also give money directly.
The current POS model also reduces the competitive efficiency of the consensus maintenance of the blockchain. In addition to the pledge of the pledge of the POS model, in addition to the reward, the large households and VC institutions have the right to speak of ecological development.Chain design.And POW’s network maintenance participation threshold is low. In addition to the head mining machine company, it can obtain a staged mining advantage through the iteration of the mining machine. Normally, the threshold for small miners to join the Bitcoin network maintenance is lower than that of POS, and fairness is even more fair.high.
POS mechanism operation is not good,,It may cause assets such as governance tokens to bubble
At present, most public chain POS design,,Especially for the design of pledged reward interest rates,,Very easy to deviate from marketization,,Do not match the level of interest rates with ecological development,,The level of ecological development is relatively open market,,Therefore, interest rate level inflation will raise assets and user thresholds that enter the public chain ecology,,Tong contraction will inhibit the development of ecology,,The main function of pledge is to maintain the network security of the blockchain, and the cost of network security is dynamic and difficult to pricing. It is difficult to fit the pledge reward model to meet this design.The distribution is more obvious. The mainstream POS public chain pledge inflation will flow to the foundation reserve, but the foundation does not always have high efficiency operating capabilities, which leads to a reduction in the development efficiency of public chain, centralized interest distribution, and ecosystem inflation out of control.In the end, assets such as tokens are foaming, and Ethereum’s POS mechanism is currently leading the industry level.
Data observation
Chain
1. Ethereum currently hovers between 1 and 2 GREI, which has a new low in the past few years. At the same time, due to the low GAS costs, ETH daily sales and destruction are innovatively low.
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2. On August 6, the number of online transactions in Ethereum has dropped to a five -month low. The average mobile transaction volume of seven days was 1.12 million transactions per day.At present, more and more activities have been transferred to the Layer 2 network. Among them, Coinbase’s Layer 2 network base has the highest trading volume, and the average transaction volume of seven days has reached 3.83 million.
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3. SOL/ETH exchange rate breaks through 0.064, a record high.
The above data reflects several trends. Ethereum has completed its current mission, reducing the cost of network transaction through technical upgrades, and on this basis, let the centralized infrastructure support more widely supported L2, thereby laid for the development of the entire web3 development.The foundation.The challenge of Solana is manifested in the rapid development of its application layer and the efficiency of decentralization by sacrificing decentralization.Solana’s progress in the application layer is more rapid, and the products are more in line with the needs of Web3 new users, such as the MEME coin startup platform and link Web2 tools such as Blink, Solana mobile phone, and DEPIN.Although Solana’s innovation is more aggressive, it is closer to the market than Ethereum, because web3 is also web, new users value UI, interactive experience, efficiency and wealth creation, followed by decentralization. The current decentralization is the project lecture on the project.For VC, users do not Care, and VC’s decentralized cost costs are not accepted.
Header operation
Jump Trading recently shifted the pledged Ethereum worth about $ 315 million to the cryptocurrency exchange, which triggered market debate and guessing.This move happened before the historic collapse of the Japanese stock market, and the Nikkei 225 index plummeted by 12.4%.Some analysts pointed out that Jump Trading may foresee the market downturn and converts risk assets to stablecoin.The picture below is the change of the ETH position of Jump Trading.
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Before and after the plunge on August 3, the five heads of the heads transferred more than 130,000 ETH directly or indirectly to CEX.The figure below shows Binance’s ETH holdings at a high level.
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Giant whale recent action
Recently, a whale cleared 14,387 ETH, with a loss of $ 12.55 million.In addition, a seven -year -old giant whale transferred more than 92,000 ETH, causing ETH prices to fall below $ 3,100.Another address participating in Ethereum ICO has transferred 48,500 ETH to OKX in the past month, worth about $ 154 million.
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From the end of July to August 8th, a small peak appeared on ETH conversion activities on the Ethereum chain.Based on the actions of head institutions, in the market conversion stage, high -risk preference giant whales are more sensitive to changes in the market, and their warehouse changes have led to a large liquidation on the chain.Highly leverage is also one of the reasons for the recent downturn in Ethereum.
In addition, James Fickel, who has long held ETH/BTC multi -headed, began to reduce positions.He repaid the loan by selling 10,000 ETH to 425.75 WBTC to reduce his ETH/BTC multi -headed position.From January to July this year, he continued to borrow WBTC from AAVE and convert it to ETH, betting in the ETH/BTC exchange rate, and its exchange rate cost was about 0.054.Although he has partially reduced its positions, its ETH/BTC multi -header is still very large, and there are still 2438.5 WBTC borrowings, worth about $ 148 million.
ETF data
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Since the launch of Ethereum ETF, funds have been in net outflows for many days, most of which are sold from GrayScale.
Encrypting ten years reflection
In the past ten years, cryptocurrencies have developed from an emerging technology concept to an important force affecting the global financial market.The decentralized revolution led by Bitcoin at first challenged the authority of the traditional financial system. At the same time, it gave birth to Ethereum and other blockchain platforms. These platforms are not only digital currencies, they also provide smart contracts and decentralized applications.The vast stage.However, with this wave of innovation, the market is fierce fluctuations, the continuous changes in regulatory policies, and the challenges of security and sustainability.Looking back at the ten years, the huge potential of cryptocurrencies in promoting financial innovation, promoting the transparency and inclusiveness of the industry also needs to be alert to foam risks.
The venture capital (VC) plays a vital role in the development of the encryption industry.By injecting capital and providing strategic guidance, VC has promoted the growth of countless blockchain projects and start -ups, so that innovative technology can quickly shift from conceptual stages to market applications.VC not only provides necessary financial support, but also brings valuable industry experience, network resources and business wisdom to the project, helping young crypto companies to avoid common entrepreneurial traps.In addition, the participation of VC has also brought credibility to the encryption industry. Through the promotion of venture capital, the blockchain ecosystem has been continuously expanded and matured, prompting the continuous evolution of technological innovation and business models.Sustainable future movement.
At present, the theoretical foundation and governance mechanism of the entire industry are not perfect. The following are several industry thinking:
1. How to resist and reduce the negative impact of VC.
Driven by the investment institutions of the Central Capital Exchange, driven by the market share, in the Web3 field, the non -restricted cultivation athletes (project incubation), the establishment of a track (exchange wallet platform), holding the competition (above currency), and playing the referee (Whether to remove the tokens), whether it has triggered the military reserve competition in the encrypted VC industry, increased the friction costs in the field of Web3’s innovation, which led to the good and bad of the secondary market projects, and even the development of the public chain.
2. Is there a market manipulation market, causing token prices to deviate from fair value, which will cause investors to lose?
3. How to get more resources for centralized and community -priority projects, not just entrepreneurs facing VC and foundation?
4. Most application layers of products and services are still in the stage of P2P. Whether there are problems in the talent system of the web3 industry, how to attract Web2’s operating talents and spread the concept of decentralization.
5. Whether VC is eligible to determine which project is running out of which project, and whether the VC’s vision and values can correctly determine what project represents the progress of productivity and production relations.
6. Whether the cash flow generated by the business model can drive the project’s development and operation without relying on financing and other channels.
summary
The author is optimistic about the long -term development of Ethereum.Ethereum is the purest decentralized smart contract platform. It has a strong community consensus and a good foundation governance mechanism. It has not been excessively controlled by venture capital and large project parties.However, it should be noted that the development of L2 is too dependent on VC.
In the development of Ethereum, the primary goal of technological progress, network design and governance is decentralization, followed by efficiency and business feasibility.This priority setting has led to recent Solana network data surpassing Ethereum in some ways, because Ethereum does not pay attention to the application layer, especially in the atmosphere of commercial DAPP developers for C -end users.However, Ethereum will still maintain its core position in the Web3 field, because the endogenous development power of the web3 industry is essentially decentralized.
In the short term, ETH/BTC exchange rates have fallen rapidly, and Ethereum developers are actively promoting expansion solutions and introducing account abstraction to enhance user experience and reduce transaction costs.However, ETH’s price is currently mainly affected by macroeconomic factors.
