jakiro
Author: Santi Li, Feng Yu, Naxi
Time flies, it has been almost 4 years since the last time I wrote a similar article. The scene of the scene was quite relieved, and 95%reached expectations.Except for the aviation giant Boeing, it did not take off. In 19-20 years of articles, Bilibili ($ 19), BTC ($ 3800), Tiger $ 3, PDD ($ 19) reached 5-10 times in 2 years, followed by follow-up$ ACH, $ UOS, $ Near, $ Algo also gave 10-80X a greater surprise.
However, individuals are also in the constant self -reflection summary and hope to improve their own judgment, because compared to readers who read the article directly, as participants who see the ocean of information, they sometimes interfere with various off -site factors.It was initially judged.
We like to make a point of view in a relatively low position or a relatively high position in advance.Real -time views are often the most attractive, but they are also in the crisis of being held most at all times. Often, more energy and health are given.The body and mind.I tend to find the starting point and ending point, and the middle road chooses to believe that the driver and nature develop.
The words belong to the home, and the last time the previous article has been more than two and a half years. Next, I will write a few of my personal shallow cognition that may be underestimated and the core startup point:
1. Bitcoin (BTC)
● Basic profile:
BTC used to be the anti -inflation product of the 2008 financial tsunami. Since its birth in January 2009, it has gone through nearly 16 years. The blockchain technology derived from the underlying logic technology has directly spawned the Ethereum, ADA, and ADA.SOL, Avax, CFX, Algo and other bottom -level public chains.
Now BTC’s own development attributes have further expanded its potential large -scale application scenarios Stacks, RGB and other development agreements.And my ultimate expectations for BTC’s general direction are actually very simple. It is simply a simple role as the new E-GOLD role in the next decades.If you plus the practical application of ecology that may be further explosive, it may gradually be derived as one of the leading assets of this century.
● The core of the core startup:
-How in 2024, a reward of each block is 3.125, and the inflation volume of the year is 52560X3.125 = 164,250, accounting for about 0.782%.The inflation rate of about 0.78%is lower than the annual inflation rate of most developed countries.
1. American SEC for the next round of water storage funds brought by ETF into the industry’s fast channel
2. The gray position and mgot throw it over
3. The traditional financial risk holding the BTC company forced to save the rescue behavior, etc.
PIC 1: Comparison of inflation rates in BTC with China and the United States, and the world’s inflation rate (BTC is halved in 4 years, Note: The expansion rate is more similar to horizontal and vertical instead of pure linear, linear diagrams are only for beauty)
Figure 1 compares the inflation rate of BTC and major powers. The picture does not list the currencies that have affected the country by excessive malignant inflation such as Zimbabwe, Argentina, and Turkey.In terms of expansion rate alone, BTCs do have a research value target worthy of storage for these countries.
● Expected valuation: $ 200,000 Mc: 42 trillion US dollars. As the beginning of the new world, the application scenarios are fully spread out
Reminder: Here is reminding that long -term expected valuation does not mean that the average trend will rise from the current price point from the current price, but the short -term may experience violent large -scale fluctuations.Loch leverage for long -term feelings.It is also for reminders here.
2. Telegram IME (Lime) & amp; TON (TON)
● Basic profile:
The special version of the IME MeSsenger is Telegram, which integrates multi -chain wallets and other functions, which can directly forward multi -chain assets such as BTC, ETH, Avax, BNB, POLYGON, Mantle, Avax and other multi -chain assets.Add functions such as Binance Pay, Twitter, TG dialogue directly Google translation and other functions, and optimize the overall layout and use convenience of Telegram.
Telegram’s account and chat history can also be used directly in the IME version of Telegram, without new account numbers.Similarly, the chat history in the IME version will automatically synchronize in the original Telegram version, which is convenient to switch at any time.The IME version itself is more like a fusion of the web3 world into the TG ecosystem. The role of TON is biased towards the chain ecology.
Ton’s native public chain ecosystem developed on the basis of Telegram. As the inheritance public chain project of the TG original project party, it brings more development and diversification to Telegram’s localized ecological development.
● Core logic:
1. The number of users from the version from 200W to 1000W users within 3 years has increased by 500%. The friendly relationship with the founding team of Telegram allows 700 million users of Telegram to be seamlessly connected at any time. The latest multi -chain Token group red envelope can be seamlessly connected.The function uses Lime as a GAS fee. If the future optimization is more convenient, it will have great benefits to the operation and promotion of the project.The successful IME multi -chain collection can help the project party more quickly integrate into the Telegram ecology.Lime’s FDV currently fluctuates between 5m-10m and is far lower than the valuation of many first-level market projects.
2.TON, as TG’s native bottom -level public chain, has average operating level and market publicity level at the forefront of the market, and Telegram users can use it directly in the original version of TG, reducing teaching costs.The box version of the single -chain wallet is based on Ton itself. It also has enough imagination. At present, Ton’s FDV has exceeded 10 billion US dollars, which shows that the market’s expectations for Telegram.
● Start the spoon:
Ime Lime:
1. Due to the large number of Russian hardcourse technical personnel, the core operation of the PR party needs to enhance the self -marketing ability of the project
2. Further optimize the TG group members can use the red envelope function to send various token as a reward for the group members
3. More optimized functions of TG are used
4. Russia’s further support and policy of blockchain applications
Ton:
1. SEC’s regulatory attitude towards official Telegram Ton is further relaxed
2. Cooperation and output of SocialFi Killer -level projects on the chain
3. The gamefi from TG is further increased
● The expected valuation:
Lime: Now MC FDV: $ 5.7m expected FDV: $ 3B-$ 5B
TON: Now MC FDV: $ 10B U.S. dollars, expected FDV: $ 60B
3. Conflux (CFX)
● Basic profile:
Conflux is the team of winners of the Turing Award. Tsinghua Yao Ban, as the bottom level of Layer1 public chain supported by technical consultants and underlying calculations, builds a long -term development platform for infrastructure such as DAPPS, e -commerce and Web 3 and Yuan universe.The tree map consensus mechanism combines the workload certificate (POW) and the equity certificate (POS) algorithm. It is also one of the three most processes in pure domestic projects.
● Core logic:
Conflux’s unique tree map consensus algorithm achieves high scalability and low latency, and technology is a technical -driven team. The use of fluency and convenience is similar to the current high valuation blockchain project SOL and ETH.The development speed of the mainstream Web3 is faster. It only needs to wait for the more users to become more active after the use of more users.The hot gameplay will gradually walk over CFX.
● Start the spoon:
1. Mainland China ’s further support and release of the blockchain public chain application
2. The further popularization of the pilot pilot of the public chain, Hong Kong, Macau, China
3. More official cooperation with CITIC, Xiaohongshu and other official cooperation, and the traditional capital throwing completely disappears
4. The development ofconflux itself has gradually matured, and the formal smooth support of BTC L2
● The expected valuation:
CFX now MC FDV: Volatility around $ 0.9B, expected FDV: $ 36B-$ 80B
4. OPULOUS (opul)
● Basic profile:
Music RWA+DEFI projects, RWA has achieved cooperation with singers, investors can use OPUL to participate in the copyright of some albums to earn the album income of subsequent singers.The new feature OPULOUS OLOAN creates a unique bridge between the RWA in the music industry.Pure USDC through the pool, provide funds for musicians, and earn additional benefits on the pledged USDC
Ovault is a unique pledge pool on the OPULOUS platform, which allows you to pledge USDC to access the diverse music library.This music library is selected by Opulous’s music experts, including popular and good songs.
By participating in Ovault, you can enjoy the music library and get rewards.This is also a way to participate in the music industry and profit from pledge.
● Core logic:
The core music resources behind the company are rich in connections, and Dittos is also the music cooperation company of boss Huang.Opulous’s overall control of the market is still at the forefront. It is one of the project parties that can play on Algrand and the ARB chain.The private placement pressure has been completely released.
● Start the spoon:
The further popularization of music applications, and the actual income generated by large income artists has a wave of waves
● The expected valuation:
OPUL now MC FDV: Volatility near $ 50m-100m, FDV is expected: $ 10B-$ 30B
5. Bilibili (Bili)
● Basic profile:
Video creation and live broadcast platforms, two -dimensional sacred land video platform, young purchasing power concentrated ground platform, invested a bunch of companies that have caused poor financial reports in recent years.So the stock price has changed from a new high to a fast break, let alone toast.
● Core logic:
1. At present, the only platform in China that seems to be able to have the power of the battle with YouTube
2. The game may catch up with the entrance era of web3
3. The user’s viscosity is high, but the consumption rights are currently a bit limited to the drama
● Start the spoon:
1. Encourage more educational videos of original creative categories. Now most Chinese videos are summarized videos, and the original category is much less than YouTube.If this “wasteland” can be activated, it will be a source of huge income for small broken stations. Many people are willing to pay for high -quality knowledge, but they need to be more strict.
2. Investment in the previous two years, the income of withdrawal was gradually incurred.
3. Revolving the business distribution, the current live broadcast business and game business are a bit strange to mix with the website
● The expected valuation:
BILI current valuation: $ 3.8B mc FDV, expected valuation 5 years: $ 50-100B
6. Avalanche/Polygon/Near/AlgranD/Solana
● Basic profile:
The core class Alt-L1 basic public chain underlying architecture. Among them, Avax and Polygon are more like the role of Ethereum’s SideChain. SOL/Near/Algo is its own underlying architecture+compatible EVM+BTC virtual machine or separate project to increase the Ether.Compatibility of the house.Because each public chain has its own unique ecology, the public chain ecology in 2024 is more suitable for each chain to make a large series. Here is the infrastructure of the chain.Endless.
● Core logic:
The security of the underlying architecture of L1 has become improved. Although there has always been some debate on the safety of SOL’s basic bottom layer, it is no doubt that Solana is currently the largest ecology in addition to Ethereum, and even the popularity has taken the top spot.However, with the opening of the Ethereum series, Ether’s ecology may also bring more gameplay.Avax and SOL and MATIC are perfectly played with the market rhythm. Near is also very good for a convenient average. The ALGO market is the most dish, but the technical strength team and cooperation are the highest.
Other L1 has similar ways to advance. Now they are rolling up with each other. After the public chain ecology began to experience a boring 2 years, it finally restarted some vitality.
● Start the spoon:
After the macro -black swan and Rayche were completely clean, the center of the new era moved further towards the AI and the blockchain and informatization.LSD, ROLLUP and other new DEFI gameplay further penetrate into major ecological rolling new rainbow (value+foam).
● The expected valuation:
FUTURE MC FDV:
Avax: 150B
SOL: 300B
Algo: 60B-150B (300B —- If Team is optimized and designated by US policy)
NEAR: 50B-100B
MATIC: 80B-100B (250B —- If it is designated by Indian policy)
7. Tiger (Tiger)
● Basic profile:
Very younger brokers, the transaction experience is very good, the data provides very good and the chart UI, the data financial report and other materials are full
● Core logic:
The valuation is low, and the virtual license is approved. Next, if you support USDC and other compliance tokens, it may greatly increase the transaction volume and your own financial income.
● Start the spoon:
1. Further relaxation of domestic policies and support of compliance KYC
2. The overall recovery and water storage of the financial market
● The expected valuation:
Now FDV, 0.58B, expected FDV: 10-20 B
8. PlanetsWatch (Planets)
● Basic profile:
The Air Sensor project that monitors the air quality of the air quality, by setting up different Sensor nodes to pass the air quality data in real time, to obtain the Green class project rewarded by the token reward
● Core logic:
1. Early valuations are high and the circulation rate is low. As the bear market comes, and the inflation is gradually inflated, the price is sharply adjusted, which is a problem that is easy to experience in projects with low early circulation rates.
● Start the spoon:
Global attention to the further attention of environmental infrastructure, ECO projects enter the blockchain field to discuss the focus
● The expected valuation:
Now MC FDV: 2M, expected FDV: 20m-200M
9. ContextLogic (Wish)
● Basic profile:
Wish is an American e -commerce platform. In 2010, it was founded by former Google employee Piotr Szulczewski and former Yahoo employee Danny Zhang.Wish’s parent company is ContextLogic Inc., headquartered in San Francisco, USA.The platform mainly sells cheap household products, clothing, jewelry, electronic products and toys, etc.
● Core logic:
In 2020, he was overwhelmed by Goldman Sachs and other consortia, which led to pushing all the way and fell to the margin of the risk of delisting.The price is lower, and the recent market actions and activities have begun to recover, and the promotion is added.
● Start the spoon:
1. Further dependence on group purchase, especially the expectations of consumer relegation people for cheap group purchase
2. If there is a new large institution to enter the acquisition process
3. The recovery of financial reports and business
● The expected valuation:
Now MC FDV: 0.1B, expected MC FDV: 2B-10B
10. Waves Enterprises (WEST)
● Basic profile:
Waves Enterprise is an enterprise -level blockchain platform that is used to build fault -tolerant digital infrastructure.As a hybrid solution, the Waves Enterprise main network gathers enterprises, service providers, and decentralized applications in an environment without trust, using the advantages of public license blockchain to cover extensive commercial use cases.The side chain is used to build private infrastructure or hybrid infrastructure, and store metadata on the main network.The platform is motivated by Waves Enterprise System token ($ WEST).
● Core logic:
Enterprise -level public chain private chain hybrid blockchain agreement may be easier to be accepted by traditional enterprises
● Start the spoon:
1. Russia’s further support for blockchain technology, Russian traditional oligopoly and consortia respond to related policies
2. further popularization of traditional enterprises.
● The expected valuation:
Now MC FDV: 2-5m fluctuations, expected MC FDV: 2B-5B (20-50B — If it is specified by Russia)
Summarize:
This article analyzes the long -term potential value of some projects. Some have experienced the survival of large waves and sand, and some have excellent fundamentals and ideas, but the market has poor operational ability and requires Bole.When you meet expectations, you may also suffer unexpected blows.
The entire world economy has not yet stepped out of the quagmire, and it can even be said that the surface of the surface is not solved by the core vulnerabilities in the bones.Some purulence and tumors have not pierced re -medical, so at this time, even in the future, it is very bright for AI and blockchain, but as an individual or institution, it is also best to improve the principle of self.
For emerging public chains such as SEI, TIA and L2 and RESTAKING, LSD, such as Altlayer, Manta, Dymension, EdenLayer, Zeta, etc., the locking time of private equity capital in this round is generally extended, so early valuationIn fact, it is more difficult to estimate.It is a test of the responsible attitude and habits of the project party, because most of the token is still in the hands of the project party. If the foundation has been smashed in the early days, the new project may also have a two -year situation.However, it is also possible that the direct valuation of TIA has become Lafite in 82 years, and it is difficult to estimate quickly.
Regarding the development of the blockchain industry, I personally think that in the next few years, I think it will be relatively bright, but the warning of the beginning of the article will still be said again: long -term expected valuations do not meanIn the short term, it is possible to experience violent large -scale fluctuations. For example, it is like a sudden moment. BTC returns to $ 1K within 3 days, and then returns to 4W. Although the probability is extremely low, if this situation, it can be maintained in this case.Healthy positions, then there is no problem.
Remember not to play long -term feelings with high leverage.Try to touch or do not touch the contract, unless you are for entertainment and have enough self -discipline, DYOR and the main way to maintain health for a long time.
Disclaimer: This article is not an investment suggestion and financial advice. It is only for the author’s feelings and opinions. I hope to learn from each other
