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On November 22, 2025, the price of Bitcoin hovered around US$83,000, a drop of approximately 34% from the all-time high of US$126,210 set on October 6, and a drop of more than 20% within the month.During the same period, technology stock sectors such as the Nasdaq 100 Index also experienced significant corrections, with AI-related stocks leading the decline in global risk assets.This round of adjustment is not an isolated event, but the result of the superposition of multiple factors such as technology cycles, macro liquidity, institutional behavior, and internal disputes in the community.This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the current pullback and assesses possible future paths based on the latest market data and historical patterns.
1. Technical analysis perspective: cycle extension and key support level breaking
The price trend of Bitcoin has long followed the four-year halving cycle.After the fourth halving in April 2024, this bull market started from the bottom in 2022 to the high in October 2025. The rising cycle lasted for about 1095 days, which has exceeded the length of the 2021 cycle, but the increase was relatively mild (from a low of about $16,000 to $126,210, about 7 times, while the increases in the 2017 and 2021 cycles were more than 20 times).
Two indicators that have long been emphasized by well-known technical analyst Benjamin Cowen play a key role in this round of adjustment:
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50-Week Simple Chains Average (50-Week SMA)
The current 50-week SMA is around the $86,000-$88,000 range.In mid-November, Bitcoin closed below this line for several consecutive weeks, marking the first such signal in this bull market.Historical data shows that once Bitcoin falls below the 50-week SMA during the bull market stage, it usually marks the end of the bull market momentum and transition to the bear market stage.Cowen pointed out in his latest analysis in November that this break confirmed the “end of the bull market signal” and predicted that Bitcoin may test the 200-week SMA (currently around $60,000-70,000) in 2026.
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cycle length mode
Cowen’s “extended cycle theory” believes that the duration of this round from low to high is similar to previous rounds (about 1,500 days), and the bear market stage from high to next low may last about 364 days.If calculated based on the high of October 6, the potential bottom may appear around October 2026, with the price target in the range of US$40,000-60,000.This pattern is highly consistent with the past three cycles, and the “extended” characteristics of this cycle (longer rise and slower rise after halving) further strengthen its predictive value.
In addition, short-term indicators such as RSI and MACD show oversold, and the MVRV Z-Score has dropped to around 2, indicating that the valuation has returned to a reasonable range, but has not yet entered an extreme undervaluation.The average cost price for buyers in 2025 is approximately US$103,227. Currently, most institutional investors have lost 13%, which further intensifies the selling pressure.
2. Macro liquidity perspective: the double impact of the reversal of the Japanese yen carry trade and the end of the Fed’s QT
Since the second half of 2025, the global liquidity environment has undergone drastic changes and has become the core macro driver of this round of correction.
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Yen Carry Trade Makes Massive Reversal
The Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, and long-term government bond yields have risen to historical highs (the 40-year yield reached 3.697%), making the arbitrage trade of borrowing low-interest Japanese yen to invest in high-yield U.S. dollar assets no longer cost-effective.Japanese yen arbitrage positions with an estimated scale of US$20 trillion were forced to be liquidated, and funds returned to Japan, resulting in a sell-off in US dollar assets (including Bitcoin, US Treasury bonds, and technology stocks).Two concentrated reversals in August and November directly triggered a flash crash in global risk assets. Bitcoin fell by more than 17% in a single month in November, which was highly synchronized with Nasdaq.
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The “bad news-like good news” of the early end of the Fed’s QT
The Federal Reserve announced on October 29 that it would end quantitative tightening (QT) starting from December 1, and would no longer allow national debt to fall naturally, and would instead reinvest the full amount.The decision was made six months earlier than market expectations because bank reserves had dropped to the warning level and short-term financing market interest rates showed signs of tension.However, the market interpreted it as “the Fed saw a signal of fragility in the financial system,” triggering a safe-haven sell-off in risky assets.Although the end of QT objectively stopped the withdrawal of approximately US$95 billion in liquidity per month, the short-term psychological impact was even greater.
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Global risk appetite declines
The highly valued AI sector is facing pressure to realize profits, coupled with the postponement of the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut (the probability of an interest rate cut in December has dropped to less than 50%), risk assets are generally under pressure.As a dual-property asset of “digital gold + technology stocks”, Bitcoin has become the first “canary in the coal mine” to respond – 24/7 trading and high liquidity make it the first to discover prices.
3. Institutional behavior perspective: ETF record outflows and profit-taking by early holders
In 2025, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was the main engine of the bull market, with cumulative net inflows exceeding US$50 billion in the first 10 months.But the situation took a turn for the worse in November:
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Net outflows during the month reached US$3.79 billion, setting a record, of which BlackRock IBIT outflowed US$2.47 billion in a single month.
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The peak outflow in a single trading day exceeded US$900 million, mainly from retail investor redemptions, while institutional investors (hedge funds, etc.) reduced their positions more through over-the-counter channels.
JPMorgan analysis pointed out that this round of outflows is mainly driven by retail rather than deleveraging by crypto-native investors.The average purchase cost in 2025 is about US$90,000, and the current price has fallen below this level, triggering “stop-loss” redemptions.
At the same time, early holders (OG) took profits significantly.Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries (such as MicroStrategy) provided unprecedented liquidity, allowing early miners and investors from 2013 to 2017 to liquidate billions of dollars of positions on a large scale for the first time without collapse.Jordi Visser’s “Bitcoin IPO theory” has been verified in this round: this is a wealth transfer from an early minority to the public, and the process will inevitably be accompanied by a long period of sideways trading or decline.
4. Disputes within the community: ideological differences caused by OP_RETURN policy changes
The 2025 Bitcoin Core v30 version (released in October) will remove the OP_RETURN 80-byte limit, allowing larger arbitrary data to be uploaded to the chain.Although this change was only a relay policy (not a consensus rule), it caused a violent split in the community:
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Supporters argue that it simplifies code and supports legitimate use cases such as sidechains/bridging.
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Opponents (including core developers such as Luke Dashjr) worry that this will encourage “junk data” to be uploaded to the chain (pictures, files, etc.), increase node operating costs, potential legal risks, and deviate from Bitcoin’s “sound currency” positioning.
Although the controversy did not directly lead to a price drop, it intensified the “exit” sentiment of some OG holders and strengthened the narrative that “Bitcoin is being attacked from within”, which resonated with technical breakthroughs and macroeconomic tightening.
5. Comprehensive Assessment and Outlook
The current correction is not a single factor, but the combined result of the peak signal of the technical cycle, tightening of macro liquidity, institutional profit-taking and community disagreements.As the most liquid risk asset, Bitcoin has taken the lead and more than reflected the global “risk aversion” shift.
Short term (before the end of 2025): The oversold indicator shows a high probability of a rebound, and it may test back to the 200-day SMA (approximately $104,000), but if it cannot return above the 50-week SMA, the rebound will only be a bear market rebound.
Mid-term (2026): If the historical pattern continues, Bitcoin may enter a one-year bear market adjustment with a target of $40,000-70,000.Analysts such as Cowen believe that this is the inevitable price of “extending the cycle” – although the current bull market has experienced a large increase, it has been longer and has more participants, resulting in a correction that is also “prolonged and mild.”
long term: Bitcoin fundamentals remain unchanged (halving, institutional adoption, national reserve trends), and the downside is limited.After the low in 2026, a new cycle may begin.The current extreme fear sentiment (Fear & Greed index 15) often indicates the bottom of the stage.
Investors need to be vigilant: the depth of this round of adjustment has reached 30%, and continued decline will test the determination of all buyers in 2025.Diversifying risks, paying attention to key levels such as the 50-week/200-week SMA, and avoiding excessive leverage are currently the most rational response strategies.The ten-year history of Bitcoin has proven that each round of bear market paves the way for the next round of bull market – but the process is always painful.
