jakiro
Author: Aylo Source: X, @alpha_pls Translation: Shan Oppa, Bitchain Vision
Airdrops play a very important role in the recent cryptocurrency cycle.I’m curious how many tokens issued through airdrops can be priced higher than the price on the first day of its issuance.The answer to this question may help us determine whether holding airdrops is cost-effective (whether it can bring positive expected returns).
I’ve sorted out some data, sourced from this morning (maybe a little lagging), but it’s enough to help you understand the general trend.I only counted the top 500 tokens.
Here are the main findings:
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Of the 31 airdrops, 23 are currently below the first day of issuance, with some very severe declines.
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Only 4 airdrops have outperformed Bitcoin since the first day of issuance.
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Of these 4 airdrops that outperform Bitcoin, only 1 was issued in 2024.
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Two meme-related airdrops (BONK and DEGEN) have been a huge success.
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Although TIA is not optimistic at the moment, its price is still much higher than the issue price and outperforms Bitcoin.
The exchange of airdrops for USD or Bitcoin on the day of issuance is almost always the right choice.Although occasionally you may catch a wave of rising after the token is listed (some call it technology), in general, the longer you hold the airdrop, the worse it will perform.
Indeed, there are always some exceptions, but the chances of holding the correct airdrop are slim, especially with Bitcoin.
If you are really optimistic about the long-term prospects of a project, you almost always have the opportunity to buy it when it is below the issue price.The next bear market may turn some of these tokens into better investment targets.There are certainly some good projects on this list.
Airdrops are not the only reason for the price of tokens for these projects to be reduced.Many times, project parties will work with market makers to set the tokens too high.The ruthless sale of airdrops by users is actually a feedback mechanism to quickly discover that the project party’s valuation is unreasonable.
Many people realize in this cycle that full dilution valuation (FDV) is really important.Holding an airdrop means you think that the token still has enough demand to support its price increase in a large number of unlocks and investors short.
Liquidity miners always sell out regardless of price because they just want to get the profit and leave.In theory, token prices should be able to recover from the exits of these speculators, but for the most part, data suggests they are not doing that.Of course, some of these tokens still have time to turn over.This is just a random snapshot and for some altcoins, things may change rapidly.
People often complain that many airdrops have bad designs, but based on these data, it seems difficult to design a short- and medium-term (long-term to be seen) community airdrop that is harmless to coins.
Two unexpected airdrop meme coins (no points plan) earned the highest returns at very low issuance prices.Both of these airdrops are designed to help develop different ecosystems (Solana and Farcaster).
In the past, we have also seen many examples of instantaneous drops of meme coin airdrops, so you definitely cannot simply think that the performance of meme coin airdrops must be better.Surprise + low valuation may be the better conclusion.
I actually think points programs will continue to exist because they are a very common feature of web2 and can help create a more fun, positive and sticky user experience, but I don’t expect airdrops to continue to be as we see in the coming yearsThe form exists.
Based on these data, the project party should consider their airdrop form very carefully, and even consider whether it should be airdropped.
