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Source: Zhou Ziheng
Almost all the eyes are concentrated in Donald Trump’s latest term, because his economic policy seems to bring fundamental changes to the global economy.
A report published in “Economics” states that Trump’s approach combines financial liberalization with strict restrictions on trade and immigration, which may have a complicated impact on the United States and global markets.
Dispute radical reform
“Economist” pointed out in this report that Trump occupied the headlines of the global media at the beginning of his office, including the establishment of “Elon Musk and Vever RamaswamiGovernment Efficiency Department ” -its goal is to reduce government expenditure of $ 2 trillion per year.
The new government of Trump also sought the use of artificial intelligence and promoted legislation related to its infrastructure, which may increase productivity and economic growth.
However, according to the report, other policies, such as expelction of millions of immigrants, tariffs on up to 60%of China, and 10%to 20%of other countries, have aroused concerns about their negative influence.
It is estimated that the cost of expelning immigrants may reach hundreds of billions of dollars, and it will lead to a shortage of labor and rising prices -especially in the agricultural sector that depends on immigration labor.
Trump policies related to immigration and tariffs have caused concerns about the negative impact of the outside world (Reuters)
Implement the obstacles faced by the Trump program
According to the “Economist” report, although people have shown obvious enthusiasm for implementing these policies, the US government still faces major challenges because the general tariffs are approved by Congress, and Republicans who support free trade may oppose it.These policies.
Similarly, the implementation of a large -scale deportation policy requires cooperation with local authorities, and local authorities may refuse to participate, which will make things more complicated.
At present, the market is optimistic about tax cuts and abolition of strict legislation, because investors believe that these measures will boost corporate profits in the short term.
However, the report of “Economics” warned that in the long run, inflation will have an impact and will disturb global trade.
The appreciation of the US dollar may lead to rising interest rates, which in turn increases additional burdens on the development of US dollar debt.
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Mexico, China and Europe have become Trump’s strike goals
Analysis shows that Trump’s policies during the term of the second president may have a wide range of impacts on the global economy. Among them, Mexico, China, and Europe will become the most affected areas.
This is due to the connection between these countries and the US trade, immigration and national defense policies, and these policies are expected to undergo fundamental changes during this period.
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Mexico: Because its economy relies on exports to the United States, the country is considered the country that is most vulnerable to Trump’s policy.Due to the tightening of US immigration and trade policies, Mexico is expected to face additional pressure.
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China: As characters such as Marco Luberio and Mike Waltz are appointed as influential positions, the trade tensions between the United States and China may be further upgraded and prompting some companies to supply their supply chain from China from China.Transfer.
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EU: Due to the huge trade deficit between the European Union and the United States and Trump’s continuous criticism of NATO, the evaluation believes that European leaders will face the pressure of re -evaluation of its national defense and economic policies.
Being in the world of isolation and competition
According to the Economist, with the implementation of the Trump policy, developing economies may bear additional burden due to rising USD debt costs.
On the other hand, some people call for avoiding mutual revenge on tariff policies, but to focus on improving competitiveness through economic reform.
The newspaper states that due to China’s attention to domestic demand, it seems to be able to better cope with these changes, while the European Union is affected by delay in developing internal markets and adopting artificial intelligence technology.
“Economist” pointed out in its report that countries need to quickly adapt to these changes and focus on domestic reforms rather than trade upgrades.
If the world wants to maintain competitiveness in front of the “Trump Economics” (that is, Trump’s economic policy), then improving economic efficiency will be the best way to deal with future challenges.
