jakiro
How do you view the future development and changes in the industry after Ethereum ETF is passed?Let’s talk about the conclusion first: In my opinion, the market will usher in a long “counterfeiting” season. The bull market Bull Run is the right time, but the process will not be so beautiful.Why?Next, let me talk about my personal observations:
1. The market response after the Bitcoin ETF passed was not as grand as expected. The violent crazy bull that everyone expected did not arrive as expected, but it was obvious that Bitcoin’s volatility had decreased, and the market’s ability to take over is becoming stronger.The mysterious power of Wall Street has become the “bottom-down” guarantee for everyone to stabilize Bitcoin.
Because the pure asset attributes of BTC lack a complete ecological support, the secondary market expectations of BTC seem to be out of touch with everyone in Build’s primary market. In the short term, the “growth” effect of BTC on the market cannot be extended to the primary priceInvesting in the market, especially the LEGO ecological market of mainstream Ethereum, is even more correlated.
However, is the passage of Ethereum ETFs very different?On the one hand, the deflation of ETH will directly affect the activity of the primary market. Ethereum price growth, and the low layer2 Gas advantage will highlight that it will indirectly drive the development of the layer2 market. The decrease in Ethereum circulation will intensify the Restaking and AVS resumption competition.The intra-conversion of the road drives value growth, and Ethereum is in the hands of incremental funds and is used to invest in and support compliance leading DeFi projects, etc.
If you give this example, it feels far-fetched, but you only need to understand that the huge first-level Build market behind Ethereum’s value today is little by little. On the contrary, ETH’s own asset price and circulation audience will also bring a source to the industry ecosystem.Continuous users, funds, talent resources, etc.This is the fundamental reason why Ethereum ETFs will relatively promote the arrival of the “copy season”.
2. The “counterfeit” coins mentioned here, I want to refer to some of the “built” coins that have VC support, team Build, and Tokens that have not received high attention when they are not issued, and the price of the coins that have been poor after the token issuance cannot be supported by value.”mainstream coins”.Simply put, the passage of Ethereum ETFs can attract mainstream funds to flock to the huge ecosystem built by Ethereum, driving the continuous growth of value coins.(Can you break the curse that the value coins are not as good as MeMe coins in this way?
However, ideals are beautiful. It is not easy to drive the entrepreneurial ecology of web3 if you want mainstream funds to flow into the ecosystem.The 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act passed by the U.S. Congressman, referred to as the passage of FIT21, is highly informative. The bill clearly proposes to provide key consumer protection and promote innovation in the US digital asset ecosystem.A brief explanation:
1. The CFTC US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has greater regulatory power, and digital virtual assets will be more flexible and free under the “commodity’ attributes, which is the basis for the long-term “stability” of the policy end market and the lack of variables;
2. “Compliance” will become the main theme of Crypto’s digital ecosystem development, including the construction of institutional systems such as the process of issuing assets and standards and specifications, which means that the virtual asset ecosystem will be divided into two extremes:
Those who cater to compliance will gradually find solutions to key issues such as KYC and anti-money laundering, and will directly obtain ETF gain buffs. Those who do not cater to compliance will be strengthened to impose sanctions and crackdowns, and will gradually become a niche market (for example: Tornado); Remember, in 21, the wave of institutions pouring into the year, we defined the market as the first year of compliance, but the accidents of the FTX and Luna incidents delayed this long-cherished wish.With the passage of ETFs, the “compliance” problem must be faced eventually.
3. The US ZF or chaebol will strongly “interfere” in key areas such as stablecoins, exchanges, digital asset custodians, payment platforms, etc. It is relatively low for a short-term direct stablecoin, but it is not ruled out that it is indirectly issued by licenses.Be the behind-the-scenes market controller.
3. If the above guess is said, it can be foreseen:
In the short term, the Crypto secondary market will be divided into two levels. Some behind-the-scenes secret dealers will increase their efforts to speculate before a series of regulatory laws are introduced. MeMe coins and some mainstream coins will have high volatility, and copycats will dance wildly;
In the medium term, some top DeFi, stablecoins, exchanges, etc. will increase compliance efforts, and value targets with good compliance orientation will have good market performance, otherwise, they will gradually lose value support;
In the long run, Crypto’s political color will drive the crypto market to cater to the taste preferences of the web2 market bit by bit, which may disappoint some fundamentalism that adheres to highly decentralized, but expecting policies to bring good news and friction with policies on the ground is to make doubleBlade sword.
web3 native is not a protective umbrella for fraud and laundering under the name of decentralization. Under the compliance stick, the community is differentiated, and product hierarchy is the general trend. Crypto has some very complex technologies and protocols, and supervision is difficult to control, but the market onlyThe most mainstream development route that will take the lead.(The right to choose is actually in the market.
In short, it is either the last carnival of speculators, the little bit of pressure from the sword of regulation, or the loss of speculative people after high volatility is restricted, etc.Everyone has their own Crypto development vision in their minds.Overall, the Crypto market driven by politics will no longer maintain its original purely “decentralized” dream, but it will allow the Crypto market, which has been developing in a mixed order for many years, to eliminate the dross and make mainstream value coins shine..
