Hashkey Capital: 2024 Web3 Investment Circuit Full Analysis

As one of the most active Crypto VCs, Hashkey Capital regularly analyzes and sort out the WEB3 tracks.On the occasion of the 2024 New Year, we judged and understood the internal track as our contribution to the industry.

The authors of this article include (according to the alphabet): ARNAV PAGIDYALA, Harper Li, Jack Ratkovich, Jeffrey Hu, Junbo Yang, Stanley Wu, Sunny He, Xiao Xiao, Yerui Zhang, Zeqing Guo.

Zk

The ZK track further expanded from previous scenes such as previous expansion and cross -chain to more application scenarios, and further differentiated into different tracks.

zkevm

ZKEVM has made some progress in Type0, Type1, Type2 and other aspects.In terms of categories, the Type0 type is completely equivalent to Ethereum, but still faces technical challenges such as block speed, release and verification status because of too much emphasis; Type1 has made improvements and discounts based on EVM. At present, the overall overallThe compatibility of application experience and operating codes is the most prominent; Type2, etc., have launched the main network earlier, looking for the corresponding type of application to develop ecology.

At present, the specific project conditions are different. It is necessary to analyze according to the project’s own development route, such as Polygon’s CDK and StarkNet’s full -chain games.

zkvm

The current main technical routes in the ZKVM field are ZKWASM, and the architecture has stronger scalability. Therefore, it cooperates with the exchange to cooperate with the exchange to do high -performance DEX.The main items in the ZKWASM field are Delphinus Labs, ICME, WASM0 and so on.

The RISC V architecture direction is mainly RISC0 exploration. Compared with WASM, it is more friendly to front -end language and back -end hardware, but the potential problem is efficiency and proof time.At present, the application scenarios are also expanding, such as the RetH of the Ethereum’s execution environment, the operating environment of the FHE, and Bitcoin Rollup.

The other is zkllvm.= nil; Based on this technology, the Type-1 ZKEVM has recently launched. Using ZKllvm can quickly compile the high-level language into the ZKSNARK circuit.

Zk mining

In the field of ZK MINING, the efficiency of GPU and FPGA is similar, but GPU is more expensive and FPGA is more like prototype verification, and ASIC scenarios may gradually distinguish between ASIC chips, new FHE demand, and so on.

In addition, the PROVER DAO has increased significantly, and the computing power is the core competitiveness of them. Therefore, the PROVER DAO made by the mining machine team will have obvious competitive advantages.

ZK MIDDLEWARE

ZK MIDDLEWARE can include verified and calculated scenarios such as ZKBridge, ZKPOS, ZK Coprocessor, ZKML, ZK Trusted Calculation and so on.Among them, the scene of ZK Coprocessor is relatively clear, and each project is basically reaching the test network stage; the ZKML track is still relatively hot, and the progress and competition of each project have differentiated.In addition, the new track of ZK certification shared (jointly sends a certificate to a certain network, and the revenue of the stave after batch processing).

MEV

Mainly you can pay attention to the early stages of the transaction supply chain, that is, the intention stage

Solving LVR and improving LP’s next -generation DEX design and infrastructure will be more and more, attracting more capital

If a private auction/trading pool can operate effectively, it will greatly improve the transaction supply chain.The development of FHE, MPC and ZKPS is worthy of attention.

At present, most systems use centralized Relay, license Solver, and Builder that needs trust.But we believe that the end of the track will be indispensable to achieve the most competitive market.

The MEV supply chain will change in APS, documents, PEPC, etc.

OFA

Order flow auction (OFA) began to rise in 2023.High -value transactions will no longer flow to the public trading pool, but to OFA, giving users the value they create.From RFQ auction to block space polymer, there are various OFA embodiments to meet various needs in price discovery and implementation quality.Looking forward to the future, it is estimated that more and more ETH transactions will be carried out through OFA.

Blockbuilder

As we see through Relayscan, the Builder market is concentrated in a few Builder, some of which are high -frequency trading companies to serve their own transaction needs.In the future, with the decrease in CEX/DEX arbitrage, the advantages of high -frequency transactions may also weaken.

Relay

The Relay market is facing two basic problems.(1) The market is concentrated in a few companies, that is, Bloxroute and Flashbots; (2) There are no incentive mechanisms for relay incentives

In the future, we look forward to seeing the rapid development and implementation of Optimistic Relays, and proposal to Relay incentives.

AA

AA (account abstraction) track can be divided into two categories: smart contract wallets and modular services.

In terms of smart contract wallets, the relevant companies in the AA wallet track are actually similar to the pattern of the entire wallet track. It is becoming more and more difficult to obtain traffic alone. Instead, it is worth paying attention to Wallet Factory.

In terms of modular service, Bundler and Paymaster are functions that these basic providers must provide. In fact, these two services have become standard services.

Some current track trends include:

Most infrastructure has been set up, and the current development is relatively stable.Judging from the data of the entire track, it has entered a rapidly growing track. The number of user wallets has begun since June. As of November, more than 6 million UserOP has been more than 200K, and about 200K MAU.

L2’s AA development is better than L1, and EF is considering native support for L2.

The problem of DAPP does not support AA is still very serious, and there are also problems of cross -chain and cross -RollUP accounts. Someone needs to propose new solutions.

Private MEMPOOL will combine with MEV and Intent to optimize the user experience.

INTENTS

After receiving attention this year, Intents has developed rapidly. Although facing some problems such as Solver’s evil and order flow trust, there are more feasible solutions.

If Intents is better to develop, it is necessary to consider Oder Flow and obtain users. Therefore, from the perspective of architecture and business, Intents is suitableAnd the role of Solver.

Telegram BOT is likely to evolve in the direction of Intent. Their advantages on the Order Flow make them have a considerable bargaining power for BUILEDER and Suave. This bargaining power will even exceed their wallets larger than they.

DA

There are not many participants in the DA track. Except for Ethereum, it mainly includes Celestia, Eigenlayer, and Avail. The project progress is different.The head effect is obvious, and there are not many opportunities to leave the waist.The projects of the DA track can mainly examine security (including data integrity, network consensus, etc.), customized and interoperability, cost, etc.As CELESTIA goes online and prices have risen, the overall valuation level of the DA track is raised.But DA is essentially a to B business. The income of the DA project party is closely related to the quality of ecological projects.

From a customer perspective, it is the safest and most expensive solution to release DA on Ethereum.Ethereum costs significantly after Protodanksharding, so the large ROLLUP project party will still choose Ethereum as the DA layer.At present, the customers of DA projects other than EIGENDA are mainly COSMOS ecological projects, RAAS projects, etc.; And EIGENDA’s positioning is more special, related to Ethereum but not directly related, and may be able to absorb some middle -area customers.In addition, there are some earlier DA projects and DA, such as Bitcoin DA for specific scenes, may get good market share in the segment.

Rollup frameworks & amp; RaaS

The Rollup market has been basically saturated and needs to be new.At present, at least 30 VC -supported RAAS projects and infrastructure providers are entering the market.It is necessary to understand which use cases are successful on RaaS, and which interoperable solutions can play a role.

Some L2/L3 frameworks (such as OP Stacks) have obtained a large number of public goods injection and developers.

Some specific applications, such as DEPIN, etc., are likely to use the customized execution environment to use Ethereum Rollup.

In addition, there are many new technologies about RollUP recently, such as: RISC0 ZETH/Other projects can change the Rollup verification status without relying on the verification device or synchronization committee; when used with the primitives such as ZKP and MPC, FHE ROLLUP can be possibleProvide a completely general privacy DEFI, and so on.

Cosmos

COSMOS HUB will continue to try to strengthen the position in the ecology from all aspects in the future. For example, some authenticants’ security (PSS) can be more flexible to allow some verifications to provide cross -chain sharing security (ICS) without compulsory all COSMOS Hub HubThe addition of the verification person can reduce the pressure of a lot of verifications, and it is easier to promote; on the other hand, the COSMOS HUB plans to use the multi -jump IBC to improve the user experience; aspect of the implementation of the agreement, it plans to increase the functions of Megablocks and Atomic IBC to provide atomic atomsSexual cross -chain transactions can form a unified MEV market, similar to the Ethereum ecological Shared Sequencer, Suave, etc.

In terms of COSMOS ecology, the application chain development route has been affected by the recent development framework such as L2, and the number of new projects has declined.However, due to its highly customized underlying framework and strong elasticity, with the continuous evolution of the mainstream narrative, the public chain label that corresponds to customized modification can be found.

Security

The projects of the safety track have made progress at all levels. The products include tools and protocols on all levels, such as chain detection and interception, chain tracking tools, artificial audit and bounty services, development environment tools, various technologies, various technologiesMethodology applications (such as fuzzy test) and so on.

Each tool has more suitable for detecting specific vulnerabilities, and has a specific method (static analysis, symbol execution, fuzzy testing, etc.) to check vulnerabilities in smart contracts, but the combination of tools is still difficult to replace complete review.

In addition to the above -mentioned different positioning, the dimension of the inspection project can also include: maintenance and update speed, vulnerability library size, carrier, and actual needs of partners.

AI

The current combination of Crypto and AI mainly includes the underlying computing power infrastructure, training based on specific data sources, chat tools, data label platforms, etc.

The underlying computing power infrastructure and computing power networks are innovative at different points, but it is generally relatively early, and it is necessary to consider the future sustainable commercial expansion path in the future except to create different types of Agents.

The data label platform has changed the traditional manual labeling business to the form of web3, and the ability to obtain orders is critical.At the same time, because the low -threshold data labeling is easy to be replaced by AI in the future, more orders are required to get more orders around high -value and high thresholds.

In addition, there are many new projects that combine AI as TO C chat tools.

As a Crytpo fund, we will pay more attention to projects with data advantages of ZKML, data advantages with Crypto vertical fields, or TO C products that are closely combined with AI, instead of infrastructure such as large language models that are not good at.

Defi

One change in 2023 may be that many investors need actual yield products, such as the benefits of LSDFI or RWA, not based on emissions -based yields.At the same time, because the centralized exchange is facing tremendous pressure on supervision, and assets need to find liquidity, DEX has great opportunities, especially the possibility of high -performance applications on L2 online, which can focus on the chance of dex on L2.

On the other hand, there are also great opportunities for projects that enable non -encrypted users (including institutions) to access the Web3 return rate.Those projects that can abstract elements on the chain and provide a safe environment for non -encrypted users will bring a lot of money.

Specifically, according to the MESSARI report, the costs of permanent DEX, including well -known projects such as DYDX, GMX, Drift, and Jupiter, accounted for the highest proportion of various segmented tracks.

Morality has continued to grow in 2023.In all ETHs, nearly 22% of ETHs are staked, of which Lido accounts for about 32% of the ETH Staking market share (at the time of writing).The liquid pledge tokens are actually the largest Defi track, with a $ 20 billion TVL.

Gaming & amp; Entertainment

STudio

The Studio project is based on its own category, and its characteristics and the need for attention are different. As shown in the table below:

Gaming category Game project Characteristic Point of attention
Casual Games Gameta, Gomble, CoinarCade, Octo The games and narratives of traffic and advertising are generally low -cost buying. Through the mechanism of mini -games to attract users to establish wallets and gold, etc., and sell them wellLet’s let users fight and do certain users. The mini game platform itself is best to have a very good mechanism for precipitating users, a member system or through the form of NFT
Large game Shrapnel, Shoot City, ABYSS World, Spacenation, Nytroverse, Mythical Games, MetaCene The end game is mainly, there are Season STUDIO for development, and the game category is the first -person perspective shooting, MMORPG or ARPG; the game development time is long, the R & D cost is 10m upward upward This will value the core producer more, including Track Record, and whether the previous production game is the same product class; and the team needs a strong management capabilities for the entire R & D budget
Casual/Mid Core AMBRUS, Infinigods, Moonveil, Mugen Interactive, Puffverse 1. Card category, tower defense and strategic (SLG) games are mainly; usually web pages and mobile phones can be supported. This type of game is easy to get started, but there is a certain complexity. For players who want to be deep, the content is content.Have enough strategies and depth to experience; 2. Benchmark’s single product cost budget is around 7m There are also requirements for producers, and they also need to have strong cost control.
Ip Building Spacence, AETHER Games, Pixelmon Products based on games as the main Deliver, as well as other Medium forms of Producing Contents such as movies, film and television dramas, comics and animations to better empower the main IP. The business logic here is that some other media forms such as animation may be possibleCheng Cheng is lower than the traditional customer acquisition cost, but the effect is better There can be many categories in the game itself. According to different categories, the corresponding analysis
Ai Feature Games Ai arena, Oasis, Sleepless AI At present, AI as the core is relatively innovative. For example, AI ARENA, the current product is relatively single, but the narrative can also be said to be able to see the landing in a short period of time. You need to see a Layer or AI function that is just added to the air -connecting airport or the essential improvement and help to the user and the user

The overall game track can be simply summarized into the above categories. The overall game quality and team professional level have greatly improved compared to the previous cycle. Next, they continue to expect the studio to enter Web3.Continue to seek strong learning ability and game producer+KOL composite founder of Crypto, sensitive to the community, and willingness to speak.In terms of web3, because the current chain tour has a short history, there are not many mature experiences to learn from, so we will pay more attention to whether the team’s ideas and ideas are in line with Web3, and the fast learning speed, not rich web3 experience.

In the future, it will continue to pay attention to UGC. At present, the Web 2 UGC has a problem that cannot be solved. In addition to providing tools to produce content for users, UGC should also provide a completely transparent reward mechanism and asset transaction freedom.One of these issues is a good way to provide additional value. It is optimistic about the team with web2 creators resources to introduce these creators to the Web3 UGC platform with transparent and higher returns.

Game UA

The summary of the game UA -class projects is based on the establishment of user portraits, with three dimensions on the chain and under the chain, and the socialization of the customer.The customer platform often faces the challenge of Retention, but it is undeniable that the player’s data is valuable. This value will increase with the number of users. If it is optimistic about the application of the application, the game data analysis can capture part of the value.

To extend to the game distribution platform, the distribution platform of infrastructure and tools in the previous cycle has gradually lost its competitiveness with infrastructure and tools as the core product. Now it is necessary to determine whether the distribution business can do.

User/fan engagement

The project mainly involves in entertainment, sports events, and film and television -related industries. According to the cooperation with IP parties, it can be roughly divided into two forms of IP party and IP authorized cooperation operations. IP cooperation is lighter to the platform operation, but its effect depends on the effect of dependence on the effect of the platform, but its effect depends on itHow much resources are given to the IP party, and the IP party directly operates more operations, but usually can connect the IP event/and content with the terminal products, and at the same time can grant users more accessible rights, fans’ incentives and feedback through NFTThe performance may be even more.In addition, through the follow -up observation of several projects, it is found that there is a platform with a certain community foundation (such as Karat Combat), and the existing users are turned towards IP fans. Often, it is compared to the fan group that starts from 0 and is completely IP -based.It is easy to succeed.Next, you will pay attention to users/audience/fan groups with high IP value, overlapping with games/Betting portraits, and the target of more direct IP.

Institutional service

The institutional service track can be divided into the following sub -tracks:

Trading/brokerage services: Including exchanges, liquidity providers, brokers/traders, liquidation/settlement, etc.

Asset management: Including fund management, high -frequency transactions, arbitrage, hosting, etc.

Bank/Payment: Including payment processors/in -in -law, card issuance, bank -related services, etc.

Other services: including trading technology providers.

The overall trend of this track includes:

The institutional service track is expected to continue to maintain stable growth in the next few years.

Compliance is an important trend of institutional service tracks, and each company is actively building compliance.

The division of responsibilities of various service providers is becoming more and more clear. Each participant in the track focuses on the duties of the nuclear crickets and checks and supervise each other in the subdivided fields.Operation.

The market share of PB service companies is expected to gradually increase. It is still blank in Crypto, which is currently provided in Crypto (ECNS, Fully Regulated Clearing House, Cross Margin Capabilities).

In this window of ETF applications, encrypted native service companies will be impacted from traditional financial companies, the demand for compliance products will be further improved, and the market pattern will be reshaped.

Europe is a hot area for the development of institutional service track, and emerging markets such as South America also have certain potential.

Bitcoin

Although Bitcoin has attracted much attention recently due to inscriptions, but the Bitcoin chain is not a global sharing state.The construction of facilities and applications needs to be constructed with different ideas.

On this basis, it is worth paying attention to Taproot Assets, ROLLUP, Lightning Network, etc.; In addition, new technical routes such as StateChain are also worth tracking.

Side chain

The side chain technology route, including STACKS, has long occupied the mainstream narrative of the Bitcoin 2nd layer network for a long time, because the technical burden is relatively small (can be directly outside the chain) to achieve a relatively high programmability, which is easy to achieve a better ecological effect.However, it will mainly depend on the technologies such as cross -chain and the main chain, which may attract more traffic and attention by other new technical routes.

Layer2

At present, many so -called Bitcoin Layer2 still looks more like a side chain form from the core technical principles, but it will build a complete set of execution, settlement, verification/challenge, and DA project framework according to the technical model of Ethereum.EssenceThe differences in the current Bitcoin Layer2 project are mainly selected at all levels. For example, the COSMOS SDK, OP Stack, Polygon ZKEVM, TAIKO, etc. adopted by the execution layer;Realize it yourself; in addition, you will generally do a layer of “account abstraction” or multi -chain wallet integration, so that the address format of Ethereum and Bitcoin can be supported at the same time to facilitate user operations.

Client verification

Client verification technology, including RGB and Taproot Assets, can realize functions such as asset issuance and transactions when the chain is minimized, which is worthy of continuing attention.

Lightning network

Lightning Labs (Lightning Labs) plans to launch assets such as stable coins on Taproot Assets next year.In addition, LSP (liquidity service provider), etc., can be promoted to the promotion of native asset -income products.

BRC20 class

BRC20 assets are seriously dependent on some specific infrastructure, such as INDEXER, which is worth paying attention to this part of infrastructure and some new asset types such as ARC20, but it needs to pay attention to the technical implementation risks.

DLC

Although DLC put forward earlier, because of less demand before, promotion is difficult.With the large -scale expansion of subsequent ecological construction, the application of DLC technology may be more popular, especially after cooperating with some prophecy machines.However, you need to pay attention to the centralized risks introduced during the DLC implementation process.

Depin

DEPIN is a track that is easy to start in the bull market.Similar to games, DEPIN is also a track that is easy to break the circle to transform traditional users, so it has attracted much attention from the industry.DEPIN has several key elements: 1) is decentralization, and gameplay and mechanism. It can be said that the lifeblood of DEPIN is located. The investment of the DEPIN project needs to see the mechanism first.2) Timing, a good mechanism requires a good time.Early customers who launched the bull market in the early days of the bull market are definitely easier, so it is required that the team is sensitive to the Web3 market.3) It is the foundation of the industry, the types of hardware selected by the project party, and the characteristics of user characteristics, which may determine the success or failure of the project.The following is a classification based on hardware types:

Following the TOC scenario, and a market that has not yet been popularized in the same hardware, revolutionary changes may occur:For the hardware (such as wearable devices) used by TOC high -frequency, the gameplay and mechanism of Web3 actually provides the project party with better and more efficient product crowdfunding channels to reduce the barriers of users and merchants.In the world of DEPIN, because there is a clear Token incentive, users will have a stronger motivation for buying hardware (soon back to the book), and merchants can even pre -sale of reproducible production; after a flexible cash flow, merchants can put it back later and then come back again.Do fundamentals, such as how to enrich the software ecology, how to link with other hardware, how to empower Token in the ecology, and so on.Especially for underdeveloped areas, if there is no DEPIN, they may never buy certain hardware, but the speculation of early participation in mining may bring large -scale real hardware popularization.

Carefully look at improved hardware:For TOC placing class or low -frequency use but having just needed hardware (such as router), the user group and the large amount of preservation are large, and DEPIN can be an opportunity for improving experience.Theoretically, DEPIN achieves cost and revenue redistribution through the resource and demand between the supplier and the user, to form more reasonable unit economic benefits, and the service of the use of accounts is cheaper.But there are also difficulties: 1) whether it can achieve decentralization over the centralized solution, such as many decentralized calculations or storage solutions, even more expensive and inefficient than centralized solutions; 2) business is businessWhether to violate the interests of a centralized manufacturer just requires that there are many large manufacturers in this direction. They have many years of users, brands, and funds., Or the power that cannot be united to the influence beyond the influence of the big brand, it is actually difficult to fight for the competitors of Web2.

Wait and see the unique mining machine direction:For other low -frequency use, at the same time, there can be dispensable hardware in daily life, and even a targeted mining machine specially purchased for mining. DEPIN may bring short -term returns, but it may not be able to form user stickiness.It is not ruled out that DEPIN really cultivates new user habits, but there is a certain accident, which is more difficult to predict. Our specific project is specific.

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