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Author: Yue Xiaoyu; Source: X, @yuexiaoyu111
The price of Bitcoin fell by almost 30% from 120,000 to 90,000.I have been investing in Bitcoin for three years, but I haven’t escaped from the top yet.
I have been regretting recently why I didn’t escape from the top at 120,000.Now that the gains have retraced so much, I’m very scared that I’m going to be on a wealth rollercoaster.If the four-year cycle theory of the Bitcoin market is not broken, it means that I will have to wait another 4 years.How many 4 years are there in life?
ThatIs it entering a bear market now?I believe it’s not just me, many people also want to know the answer.
In order to avoid various market noises from affecting my judgment, and of course, in fact, to give myself a psychological massage, I used various analytical frameworks to make a comprehensive evaluation, and the conclusion is still very optimistic.Can we all come together for a psychological massage?
1. Fear Greed Index
The current index is 15 (extreme fear), and market panic has been going on for a month.
Extreme fear often accompanies sell-off cycles, reinforcing downward pressure.
If the index remains below 20, it could trigger further liquidations.
But looking at historical data, extreme fear is a buying opportunity.
The current panic may be close to the bottom, and there will be a rebound in the short term.
This analysis framework shows that it is a short-term bear market, but it is not a bull market turning into a bear market.
2. Technical analysis
The 50-day/200-day MA indicator, death cross (short-term MA crossing below the long-term MA) has been confirmed, similar to the starting point of the 2022 bear market.
From a technical point of view, it is now a strong bear market signal, the trend is reversing, and the lower target is $74,000-80,000.
The RSI (14-day) indicator quickly fell from 70+ (overbought) to 35 (oversold), accompanied by high volatility. Short-term oversold suggests a rebound, but there is no strong reversal if it does not break 30.
Therefore, from the technical indicators, it is clear that the market is in a bear market, but the oversold condition suggests that a rebound may occur within 1-2 weeks.
3. Fundamental analysis
ETF inflows: US$61.9 billion inflows throughout the year, but turned into outflows after Q3.Institutions (such as MicroStrategy) are still accumulating chips, but panic among retail investors has intensified selling pressure.
Market liquidity: First, the U.S. government was shut down and funds from the Treasury Department were not released into the market. Coupled with the intensified disagreements about interest rate cuts in December, the overall uncertainty has become stronger.
The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets has risen to 0.6-0.7. Affected by interest rates, inflation and liquidity, 2025 will mainly be macro tightening.
From a fundamental point of view, it is still a bull market, even a long-term bull market. The big flood has not yet come, but the short-term outflow can be regarded as a market correction.
4. On-chain data analysis
Active addresses: 20% down from peak.
Trading volume: plunged 30%.
Holding address: The proportion of long-term holdings (>1 year) has increased to 65%. The age distribution of UTXO shows that it is still accumulated, not panic selling.
The weakness on the chain indicates that the market is now bearish, but the holding behavior data shows that it is not a complete collapse.
5. Market cycle analysis
The traditional four-year cycle driven by the Bitcoin halving has deformed in 2025, mainly due to the influence of ETFs and the entry of traditional capital.
Nineteen months after the halving, the all-time high price would normally have been higher, but ETF absorption of supply has changed the dynamics and the peak impact has weakened.
Similar to the late cycle of 2017, it will rebound after falling 20%.
Therefore, the bull market may continue until 2026, and the target price is still 200,000.
To sum up
Is it now a bear market?
In the short term (January to March), it has entered a bear market correction. Technology/on-chain/macroeconomics consistently show downward pressure. The target point is 70-80k, with a probability of 40%.However, it has not yet entered a full-scale bear market. Institutional ETFs and on-chain holding behaviors indicate that the basic market is still stable and there is no risk of collapse. The cycle may be extended to 2026.
How will the market develop in the future?The probability of further correction and hitting the bottom of 70,000 is 15%; it continues to consolidate, fluctuates up and down, and trades time for space, and the probability is 50%; it then starts to rebound, returning to more than 100,000, or even new highs, the probability is 35%.
