jakiro
TL;DR
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Just yesterday, GCR, a famous “big short seller” in the cryptocurrency circle, tweeted for a long time after a year, encouraging everyone not to “give up” in the recent market crash. Currently, the tweets have more than 50,000 likes.I believe many people are curious about the deeds of this legendary trader in the cryptocurrency field.
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This article takes this opportunity to introduce the background of GCR, trading philosophy, and the content about market analysis and forecasts he shared in his past tweets.GCR is known for its outstanding performance on the FTX exchange and its precise predictions of market trends.GCR’s preference for short-selling operations, investment in meme coins and NFTs, and his bets on the 2024 US presidential election are all reflected in the article.
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Although GCR reduced social media activity in early 2023, his market insights and trading strategies remained at the cryptocurrency community.GCR’s final public statement highlighted positive views on the future of cryptocurrencies, especially the long-term optimism about Ethereum prices.I believe that this article will regain confidence in the future development of the cryptocurrency market in the digital era and provide valuable experience and inspiration to the public.
introduce
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GCRHe is one of the most famous traders in the Crypto field.He is known as the alias “Gigantic-Cassocked-Rebirth” on the bankrupt FTX exchange, and is well known on Twitter for his frequent Crypto-related and proven investment skills, multiple successful predictions and clever writing.
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From 2021 to 2022, he frequently appeared on the top traders rankings of FTX and beat many other market participants to become one of the highest overall profit and loss figures on the exchange.Although his identity remains a mystery, he claims to have accumulated wealth from almost nothing but trading alone.
GCR Arkham User Portrait
One of the first posts after GCR debuted on the FTX rankings – Posted using @GiganticRebirth’s account
1. Background and history of GCR
GCR has never spoken publicly about his background in depth, but occasionally mentions fragments of his life before he came to the world of Crypto.On the X platform, he mentioned that he had initially had a portfolio of only $1,000 and said it was his “only opportunity” and gradually increased his assets through trading.He demonstrated his predictive power for the first time through political impact analysis, a practice he often mentioned on the X platform.He also dabbled in sports betting and claimed he “may have spent thousands of hours” studying how to extend his life.
GCR’s Tweets About His Early History
He claims to be a hard-working man.When the market is in good shape, he encourages other traders on Twitter to invest more than 120 hours a week to improve their skills.Although he encouraged his audience to take a break at the end of 2022, he personally said that he had not had a day off for nearly three and a half years.
GCR’s advice to traders
GCR is essentially a reverse operator—he often mentioned a “tree of life” in his 2021 tweet, which is the key to leveraging the market.After many different traders made a lot of speculation about the secrets of GCR, he eventually suggested that this “tree of life” is actually just a willingness to bet against a consensus point of view.He is a loyal fan of George Soros and often mentions the key points of Soros’ conversations, discussing the concepts of reflexivity and reverse thinking
GCR’s reverse thinking strategy reflects his deep understanding of market behavior and his precise grasp of group psychology.He realized that in the market, most people often see it wrong, and real opportunities are often hidden in the opposite direction of consensus.This way of thinking allows him to find profit margins in market volatility and succeed through unique trading decisions.
George Soros’ reflexive theory believes that the bias of market participants will affect market prices, and these price changes will in turn affect participants’ expectations and behaviors, forming an interactive cycle.GCR is obviously deeply influenced by this theory and applies it to its own trading strategies to find imbalances and opportunities in the market through reverse thinking.
Some reverse predictions of GCR
What he is best known for publicly and successfully trading Crypto in the markets in 2021 and 2022, accumulating a large number of loyal fans, who are distributed on his multiple alternate accounts.However, in early 2023, he became silent and left after publishing “This may be my last tweet about Crypto” on X.Since then, his social account has become silent.
2. Crypto Bull Market – Early 2021
GCR was not well-known in early 2021 and had only a small number of followers on Twitter, where he would post details of his recent market sentiment and trading activities.He has loved the reverse view from the beginning, and one of his earliest posts was a detailed introduction to his short-selling GME stock price increase driven by retail investors in January 2021.”I always found Reddit culture offensive, and I was on the side of oligarchs and wealthy,” he wrote.
GCR Discuss Meme (meme) Stock Trading
His 2021 release mainly includes the trading principle that has since been widely circulated on Crypto Twitter, that is, he will repeatedly emphasize the importance of patience and find areas where he can play his unique strengths.
GCR’s advice on news trading
Interestingly, he also released his previous prediction, which is, “If you invest 20 Ether to SHIB and then wait for 5 months to the peak of the total bull market, it could be worth 40 million.”By May 2021, it turns out that traders actually only need to invest 2 Ether coins in Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) to make a profit of $40 million.This is GCR’s first post highlighting his love for meme coins, an asset class that was particularly suspicious of traditional traders in early 2021.
GCR’s discussion on SHIB currency trading
During April and May, he issued a number of bearish warnings, strongly opposing popular bullish narratives such as the 2021 popular trader like 3AC’s Su Zhu.His reason for supporting his position is sometimes very simple, but it is just contrary to the “mainstream market view” amid the 2021 mass retail trader-driven craze.
GCR’s tweet warns market callback
During the Crypto boom in early 2021, the popular meme coin Dogecoin (DOGE) began to soar.By its peak in May 2021, DOGE’s price rose 69,136%, much higher than its 2020 low.Dogecoin is a “meme coin”, a currency that has no practicality or fundamental support.It unexpectedly hit a $98 billion market capitalization after tech giant Elon Musk became interested in it and began talking about it on Twitter.Much of its rally is driven by liquidation of short positions held by traders who do not believe that a joke currency can have such a significant market capitalization.
One of GCR’s most famous deals in early 2021 was on May 9, 2021, the day when Elon Musk appeared on Saturday Night Live (SNL), publicly shorting the top of DOGE.More than a year later, he explained: “Due to some ‘future catalysts’, retailers’ heavy currency is often hyped for months… Just as mass retail traders imagine meme catalysts would make them millionaires, the market doesMunicipal merchants use the last liquidity waterfall to distribute (chips)
GCR shorts Dogecoin at the highest point
3. Going against the current – Second Half of 2021
In the second half of 2021, GCR turned bearish and publicly issued suggestions to remind traders to pay attention to his previous warning – reduce trading under adverse conditions, and do not have any illusions, believing that “allicotts can survive independently and can be used in BTC’s GobuSwimming in the forest town”.
On July 15, GCR released his infamous 2022 bear market forecast in a private telegram chat, predicting that there will be a long and profound bear market where even the most powerful projects have few chances of breathing.
“The local bottom will be around $20,000… Macro/stock top in 2022, … most altcoins will fall 95% or 99%”.
GCR’s Bear Market Forecast
GCR’s bearish attitude does not mean that he will leave the Crypto market—just the contrary.Despite being optimistic about the remaining opportunities in the market in 2021, his strategy in the second half of 2021 turned to short positions that took advantage of market liquidity outflows.Since then, he has shorted a lot of weak or strong altcoins relative to BTC.
GCR discusses altcoin market on Twitter
He also applied his predicted skills to different assets and areas.First, it was back to the realm of political prediction and successfully bet on the rise of dark horse Valérie Pécresse during the 2022 French presidential election.
Pecres didn’t win in the end – but GCR later said his goal was to take advantage of the upside potential that a marginal candidate would be accepted by the mainstream – as he explained, the difference between 5% and 50% is 10The return is twice, and betting against the winner in a game with no wins and losses will only get 2 times the reward.
GCR’s political predictions
In August, GCR began speculating on NFT (non-fungible tokens), and he was more optimistic about the lower market value of NFT than the meme coins he called “altcoin 2.0”.In addition to trying to buy hundreds of “Pudgy Penguins” NFTs, his address won a “Sad Doge” NFT at an auction, and a month later he had $2 million USD.(USD stablecoin) sold this NFT.However, he commented that NFT is a very difficult asset class to get exposure, saying: “My NFT investment is seven figures, but it only accounts for less than 1% of my net worth and is my broader barbell investment strategypart of the ‘.
GCR’s NFT purchase
By October 2021, he began betting on Trump’s winning of the 2024 election.Because of the huge size of the transaction, it was nearly impossible to get enough liquidity on the exchange, and he eventually had to turn to direct over-the-counter trading (OTC) with Alameda Research.Just over a year later, Alameda Research’s balance sheet was leaked, showing they still hold $7.3 million worth of unheld TRUMPLOSE tokens — which could be the remainder of the GCR transaction.
GCR’s prediction for Trump’s re-election in 2024
In October, GCR released his advice for young traders to spend time finding all possible advantages in the market.”Even if you live for another 80 years, you will never have such an easy opportunity to gain generational wealth.” This extreme prosperity lasted for about two months – until the end of November 2021, when the Crypto market reached its all-time high.
GCR’s advice for young traders
Soon after, he began recruiting members for a new team—named RebirthDAO.Its claim to aim is to form a “decentralized hedge fund” by combining the power of many extremely successful traders in the Crypto market.The team’s first deal was in an ETF news deal in October 2021: designed to identify and leverage the approval of the Proshares BTC Futures ETF.According to GCR, the deal was very successful—RebirthDAO was one of the first public traders who received a news reminder to push the BTC price from $57.1K to $59K, which gave them relative to other news dealsThe precious few seconds of advantage of the person.
GCR discusses RebirthDAO on Twitter
4. “Big Shorts” – GCR in 2022
GCR discusses shorting market in November 2021
GCR slowed down in November after a busy schedule in October 2021 – he chose to take a vacation because the altcoin market reached an extremely excited state.On November 22, he posted online that he said, “I’m back and start shorting.”Two days later, he explicitly announced that the market was approaching the high of the cycle: “I am very confident that we are at the end of the cycle and the cycle still exists… If you have made money, make sure your income is safe now.”About two weeks ago, on November 10, the price of BTC had reached its highest point in the cycle at $69,000.For traders about to enter 2022, he gave a suggestion:
GCR’s advice for traders
GCR started to find ways to profit from the altcoin market he thought was overheated.At that time, the total value of the entire Crypto market exceeded $3 trillion, and GCR looked for currencies that would have a large number of new coins issued in 2023 and asked his DAO team to collect as much information as possible about the unlocking of token issuances.Instead of shorting BTC or Ethereum with the largest market capitalization, RebirthDAO plans to short the weakest batch of altcoins in the market.GCR said he is most interested in the tokens with the largest issuance in the first half of 2022.
The research team uses various means to collect this information, not only to review files, but also to analyze on-chain wallets, and even directly contact project team members to understand the scale of their token issuance in 2022.
GCR later mentioned that DAO believes that many currencies are particularly suitable for shorting are either projects in the Solana ecosystem, which are supported by FTX and have a large number of tokens locked to investors; or they are related to the meta-universe.Currencies, they were overly sought after by the market at the end of 2021.
However, GCR’s most famous operation was a public bet with LUNA founder Do Kwon.On March 14, 2022, GCR proposed a $10 million bet to Do, betting that the price of Terra Luna will be lower than it was in a year.GCR successfully convinced Do Kwon to use his own Crypto to bet $10 million, with a well-known account called @cobie to manage the custody of the bet.
GCR bets LUNA price falls
Although GCR successfully convinced Do to bet directly against him for $10 million, he hoped that the bet would be larger, so he used derivatives on FTX to fill up the balance and shorted the $10 million worth of LUNA Perpetual Futures.Just two months later, on May 7, GCR revealed that the position had made a profit of $2.3 million.
GCR discusses his views on LUNA
LUNA is very susceptible to selling pressure due to its unique nature – it is used as an asset to support the “algorithmic stablecoin” of UST, which in turn depends on the price people in the market are willing to pay for LUNA.During most bull markets, buyers willing to buy LUNA were able to absorb all the money that was out of the UST system – it even withstood a “decoupling” incident during the May 2021 crypto market crash.But by May 2022, there will be more than US$10 billion in the LUNA system, while this number is only 1 billion in 2021.
When UST is sold in large quantities in the market, people holding UST scramble to exchange it for LUNA and then sell it for real USD.The large number of teams waiting to exchange UST, claim and sell LUNA has discouraged other traders, and no one is willing to buy LUNA in the market – which has led to a sharp decline in the price of LUNA.
Finally, the price of LUNA almost fell to zero.GCR completely offset his risk to LUNA after spending only $0.72, and in fact he hedged his $20 million short position in LUNA for less than a dollar.
GCR closes LUNA’s short positions
As the bear market continues in 2022, GCR foresees more and more cyber attacks, frauds and frauds, which may come from criminals or from some project teams.As more and more decentralized finance (DeFi) projects are damaged by code flaws, exploitation and reentry attacks, GCR warns traders to pay special attention to incentive mechanisms in bear markets and use them as investment decisionsImportant basis.
GCR’s comment on scams and fraud events in bear markets
By the end of 2022, GCR shorted Dogecoin (DOGE)’s remaining gains several times and advised his followers to take a break and take a vacation when the market situation is not very optimistic.With the arrival of the global price bottom of BTC at the end of the year, GCR reminds traders that “the macroeconomic will never give you an advantage; it will never… stick to what you know.”
On November 8, 2022, the FTX Exchange collapsed due to a large loss of customer deposits.After discovering that its sister company, Alameda Research, had been using the exchange’s user funds, a large amount of money flowed out quickly led to the exchange’s bankruptcy.
GCR has repeatedly reminded traders to pay attention to the security of fund custody – during the bull market, a large number of hackers, frauds and wallet capital loss have made him call on more traders to choose top exchanges for fund custody.Unfortunately, he did not foresee the collapse of the second largest exchange in the Crypto space.
When FTX stopped withdrawing, GCR wrote: “I hope that the last part of my prediction will not come true for the benefit of the entire industry.”Unfortunately, over the next three months, it was discovered that FTX itself had about $9 billion in debt and had allowed Alameda to use customer funds to bear the losses for years.What is an item on their balance sheet?It is a “TRUMPLOSE” token worth $7.3 million.“I always thought they were hedging on Betfair,” GCR posted online.
5. 2023 and beyond: GCR’s forecast for the future
After FTX crashes, GCR permanently stopped tweeting on @GiganticRebirth account.His alternate account @GCRClassic provides fewer individual transaction updates and gives more general predictions for the future.
GCR’s advice for Crypto participants
During the crypto market trough in 2022, GCR’s most important advice may be a reminder about the value of time: “No matter how much money you have left now, the depth and breadth of your market are very valuable.” Even if he is on FTXLosing a lot of money, GCR remains optimistic about Crypto’s prospects.”In an increasingly digital world, digital assets are essential,” he said. The tweet was released on November 23, just two days after the price of BTC fell to about $15,476.
As the market feels uncertain about the prospects of Crypto and some startups are starting to divert their attention from the industry, GCR has made a point that there may be an “echo bubble” in 2023, which will be the last optimist in the market.Appeared after being completely eliminated.Interestingly, the full recovery in the market in January 2023 actually laid the foundation for the cyclical bottom of BTC.
GCR’s “echo bubble” theory
In early 2023, as the market gradually recovered, GCR seized the opportunity to explore some of his long-term beliefs and predictions about Crypto’s future.In his earliest tweet in 2023, he pointed out that the next rise will be led by China: “Many future rises will appear on coins that no one in your circle knows.”Within a few months, the first BRC20 currency ORDI has been deployed on the BTC network.By November, ORDI will have a market capitalization of $1 billion — thanks in large part to its popularity among Asian exchanges and speculators.
GCR’s belief in Asia-driven bull cycle
There is still optimism about Crypto’s future development, although there is some pessimism and doubt.In a tweet in May 2022, he predicted that humans would become more “desperate, greedy, depraved, lonely, and trapped in the metaverse.”He has been sticking to this point of view in 2023, and in the process, the Crypto market has slowly gone through various stages, including casino coins, meme coins, and even strange projects involving hamster races.In 2023, the token of RLB, the top online casino in Crypto, once soared to its highest point of $777 million, but then fell by more than half.
GCR’s casino theory
Starting from the end of 2021, GCR predicts that the efficiency of the Crypto market will be significantly improved.He believes that there are many reasons for this improvement, such as graduates from top universities joining this field, the regulatory structure becomes more mature, and strict controls on privacy protection agreements and private Crypto.Although in the Crypto field, it is generally believed that transactions can remain anonymous to a certain extent, GCR reminds everyone not to mistakenly think that any behavior on the blockchain is private.
GCR’s view on Crypto’s future talent development
He showed a strong interest in the 2024 U.S. presidential election – he has been making a heavy bet on Donald Trump since the end of 2021, betting on him, betting on him as the ultimate winner.”The stupidest and smartest people know that Trump will win easily,” he said, “and the former U.S. president has been in the public spotlight throughout 2023 with a series of eye-catching feats, even including on August 23.Day took the initiative to surrender to the Fulton County Jail, Georgia.
GCR’s opinion on Trump’s 2024 campaign
In the first three months of 2023, GCR invested money to buy more than 300 tokens for the NFT project “Milady”, although some people in the Crypto circle found this project a bit weird.About three months later, when Elon Musk posted a meme about the NFT project on Twitter, GCR sold about half of the tokens on hand.Even so, he still holds over $890,000 worth of Milady tokens in his public wallet address ezekielx.eth.
GCR Buy Milady on BLUR
Silicon Valley banks went bankrupt a month before GCR left Twitter.This led to the temporary decoupling of USDC, one of Crypto’s largest stablecoins, which once fell to $0.88.This incident did not affect GCR – he replaced a total of USDT of $4 million on the chain with USDC.
GCR’s stablecoin trading
On Twitter, GCR expressed his views, and he believed that in the digital age, Crypto will inevitably be widely adopted.“People will look for another option, a new path,” he said.
GCR’s comment on future finance
The last tweet he posted on his GCRClassic account was positive, saying: “They will continue to print more money.”He also said: “The Ethereum price will one day rise to $10,000.”
GCR’s final tweet and his prediction of Ethereum price
A week later, he liked a tweet from someone else, saying “See when ETH reaches $10,000.”After that, he never appeared again.
