jakiro
Author JoshuaDeuk
This weekend, there is more time to reflect and I want to share some ideas about the market.
I think the overall directional trend of the cryptocurrency market will not appear until September.Given macroeconomic resistance, summer liquidity restrictions, and position adjustments at the end of the quarter, real market dynamics will not begin until after the August holiday market participants return.Judging from recent market activity, most altcoins’ rises are driven by short squeezes.Traders are subject to conditioned reflexes from previous rebounds, chasing momentum – but this time there are no real long-term holders.Most people have been hit hard by the market before.As expected, the vast majority of tokens that rose sharply followed by the same sharp decline.
Ethereum rebounded unexpectedly, and the most hit sectors such as AI andCoins led this rebound.On the other hand, tokens with practical uses, strong fundamentals or repo mechanisms show resilience—Not only did it perform more steadily during the decline, but it also recovered faster.Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples.Although SPX isCoin, but its structure is completely different.From this we can extract the following insights:
1. Bitcoin demand is real and lasting
Traditional capital is gradually entering through ETFs and other regulated channels.
The nature of capital that supports BTC now is completely different from the previous cycle.This is why large-scale BTC clearings are unlikely to happen unless triggered by macro events.
2. The differentiation within the altcoins will intensify
Eventually, capital will flow back to altcoins—but not comprehensive.Only tokens with clear uses and actual use cases can attract these inflows.That’s why I think Ethereum will outperform Solana.The clarity of regulation, growing decentralized financial utilization, deflation structure and pledge demand together constitute a strong flywheel effect.And, as ETH has failed to meet expectations for a long time, it still has marginal buyers waiting off the market.
3. Venture-backed tokens have structural risks
Token unlocking will continue to put pressure on price trends.In the event of insufficient liquidity, continued selling pressure from validators and early investors limits the upside space.That’s why I think that overvalued tokens listed on centralized exchanges are not a good choice in the future.The tokens of the Cosmos ecosystem are particularly facing continuous selling pressure, as their validator reward structure leads to this situation.
4. MeMe has structural advantages
Have structural advantages,Unlocked without venture capital, fair launch, 100% attention-based.It’s pure hype mechanism–just like in the first cycle, it worked.
But I think this phase is over.
Pump.fun’s token generation event and Trump coin launch markcurrencyThe pinnacle of attention.After that,Coin interest began to fade.Even in April’s rebound, SOL’s performance was not as good as ETH – if everyone already held SOL,When the momentum of the currency fades, who will be the marginal buyer?
SomeCoins may still perform well, especially those who have become popular outside of crypto-tweets, such as TikTok or Instagram, driven by charming characters like MURADcurrency.These may still bring about asymmetric wealth effects.But the era of “cute dog and cat coins” as alpha has ended.Only those with strong stories and strong market perceptions—things that people can collectively believe—Only coins have real speculative value.
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Ironically, exhaustion and suspicion of venture-backed tokens opens the door to fairly launched Web2/3 projects that will be the next wave of wealth generation opportunities
Keeta is a great example.But to seize these opportunities, you need to be active on the chain.When information is asymmetric, big opportunities always arise.Once everyone knows something, it no longer pays off.
That’s why I spend more time paying close attention to the on-chain market.Keeta’s success ignited the desire to find the “next Keeta”, and capital began chasing a similar fair launch altcoin narrative.Just like that guy Bonk passed the dealThe currency makes more than 10 digits of wealth – attention is used to guide capital.
5. Next market trends
So,If meme coins are no longer the opportunity…what is next?
My opinion:The combination of AI and cryptocurrency.
If you follow my timeline, you will know that most of my operations in this cycle—after the early stages of SOL and venture-backed tokens—were focused onCoins and AI.
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Just like DeFi summer, most early AI projects failed after the hype.But real practical projects are quietly building in this bear market.We’ve seen some of these projects appear on the chain.
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along withThe profits of the currency are exhausted, and attention will naturally turn to a new narrative.With its clear practicality, AI is perfect for being the next destination.
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Many AI x Crypto projects are fairly launched, echoing Keeta’s narrative.
That’s why I spent my time researching and laying out ahead of time in this area during my quiet weeks.There is no need to rush to build full positions now – but I believe that if the market rises again, this area will contain the biggest asymmetric opportunity.
