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The huge wave is approaching, and only those who see the trend clearly can survive.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, recently made a big point of view on X platform, which caused a thousand waves!The investment tycoon who once predicted the 2008 financial crisis bluntly said: relaxing cryptocurrency regulation will not threaten the status of the US dollar.The real risk is the growing debt dilemma of the U.S. government.
This is not alarmist.Dalio pointed out that the debt problems of the governments of the US dollar and other reserve currencies are eroding their attractiveness as a means of reserve currencies and wealth storage, which is the key factor driving the price rise of gold and cryptocurrencies.
Debt black hole, US economy is full of concerns
US Treasury bonds have exceeded $36.4 trillion, accounting for 30% of global GDP and annual interest expenses account for 27% of federal revenue.What is this concept?It is equivalent to every American citizen carrying more than $100,000 in Treasury bonds.
Based on more than 50 years of macro investment experience and research on 500-year historical turning points, Dalio observed that the most reliable harbinger of a country’s civil unrest is often the government’s fiscal bankruptcy and the serious gap between the rich and the poor.
He warned that the United States is entering the fifth phase of the “big cycle” of history – a dangerous period of fiscal deterioration and serious social divisions, which is very likely to trigger a domestic institutional collapse.
Printing money to repay debts, an invisible killer of US dollar purchasing power
What measures are most likely to take in the face of huge debts?Dalio reveals the secret of the world in one word:“Print money to repay debts”.
“Credit ratings always underestimate the actual credit risk because they only assess the possibility of a government debt default. The greater risk is that the debtor’s country may pay off debts by printing money, which will result in losses caused by devaluation of the currency rather than a decrease in repayment amount.”
In other words, even if the U.S. government does not default directly, the depreciation of the dollar through large amounts of money printing has actually eroded the real purchasing power of bondholders.This is the real risk.
Stable coins and US debts are difficult to resolve
Regarding the risk of stablecoins against US Treasuries, Dalio made a unique view: “I think the real risk of the decline in the actual purchasing power of US Treasuries. If stablecoins are well regulated, this should not cause any systemic risk.”
Data shows that in 2024, stablecoin issuing entities purchased approximately US$40 billion in US short-term Treasury bonds, and the annual purchase volume exceeded that of many national actors.Standard Chartered Bank predicts thatStablecoins may take $1.6 trillion in short-term U.S. bonds in 2028.
The GENIUS Act even mandates stablecoin issuers to allocate 100% of their reserve assets into US dollar cash or short-term US Treasury bonds that expire within 93 days.This actually builds a closed loop of “USD issuance → stablecoins → cryptocurrencies → US debt”.
Cryptocurrency: Alternative currency with limited supply
Dalio noted that cryptocurrencies have become a substitute currency with limited supply.If the supply of US dollar increases and/or demand for US dollar decreases, otherwise, if the supply of US dollar increases,Cryptocurrencies are likely to become attractive alternatives.
He believes that most fiat currencies, especially those with large debt scale, will face problems as effective means of saving wealth and will depreciate relative to hard currency.
This view is supported by market data.Bridgewater Fund bought 1.1 million shares of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) in the first quarter, with a holding value of nearly US$319 million.Dalio is optimistic about gold in the long term. He suggests that investors should allocate about 10% of their gold assets under the current environment.
Digital Gold and the New Monetary System
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also made a similar view: amid the continued turmoil of the global economy,Bitcoin may become an important part of government reserves in the future.
In his opinion, Bitcoin has advantages such as separability, portability and practicality, and is more competitive than traditional assets such as gold.He predicts that governments may gradually allocate some of their reserve assets to Bitcoin in the future, and the initial proportion may start from 1%.
The United States is laying out a “Trial” global digital governance framework.The Trump administration has signed an executive order announcing the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a U.S. digital asset reserve library, and included about 200,000 Bitcoins confiscated by the government through judicial procedures in the strategic reserve.
How do ordinary people deal with it?
What should ordinary investors do in the face of possible changes in the monetary system?Dalio’s advice is:Diversified investment.
He particularly emphasized: “I highly recommend diversified investment, but most people have serious shortage of gold allocation in their portfolios. When the crisis comes, gold will become an excellent risk diversification tool.”
The market reaction confirmed Dalio’s judgment: GLD holdings surged by 61 tons in the first quarter, reflecting that investors are hedging geopolitical turmoil and economic uncertainty through gold.
Although the price of Bitcoin still fluctuates (reported at $100,985 on June 22, 2025), the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that Bitcoin is currently oversold and there is a possibility of a rebound.
The way to survive in the era of change
Dalio’s warning is worth our deep consideration.The dollar hegemony cannot be replaced overnight, but it does face unprecedented challenges.
He pointed out that the current international geopolitical order is collapsing because an era in which the United States commands other countries to comply with the order has ended, and the multilateral cooperative world order is threatened by unilateralism.
Against this backdrop, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, may play an increasingly important role.But it should be noted that cryptocurrencies still face many challenges, including price volatility, regulatory uncertainty and technical thresholds.
The future monetary system is likely to be diversified, including a hybrid system where traditional fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies, central bank digital currency (CBDC) and hard assets such as gold exist together.
As investors, we need to keep an open mind, understand these changes, and make appropriate allocations in our portfolio to deal with possible changes in the monetary system.
The only thing that remains unchanged is the change itself.In the wave of change in the monetary system, only by flexibly adapting and diversifying risks can our wealth be kept from erosion.
