jakiro
Author: God’s grace
Institutions have taken profits, ETF funds are stable, the Fed’s expectation of interest rate cuts has been digested in advance by the market, and Bitcoin faces a strong resistance level and is difficult to break through.
The recent weak U.S. jobs report has indeed strengthened the Fed’s expectations of a rate cut, which should have been a positive for risky assets.However, Bitcoin is still fluctuating around $112,000, and it is still difficult to break through the $120,000 mark.Several analysts pointed out that although technical aspects show that Bitcoin’s short-term trend is bullish,Extremely shrinking trading volumeA significant divergence of quantity and price has been formed, which limits the possibility of further price breakthroughs.
The market digests dovish expectations
In traditional logic, the Fed’s interest rate cut should inject more liquidity into the market, and investors are more inclined to invest their funds in risky assets such as Bitcoin.Historical data shows that Bitcoin usually rises before loose policies are introduced.
However, analysts at CryptoQuant pointed out that based on the predictions of deep learning models, Bitcoin may remain in the short term.$108,000 to $120,000range oscillation.
The market has digested a certain degree of policy easing, and the interest rate cut may have been overdrawn in advance.As in 2019, Bitcoin rose sharply before the interest rate meeting, but was sold off as the reality of weak economic growth emerged.
Institutional behavior changes quietly
Market liquidity has cooled down recently due to the Labor Day holiday in the United States, but funds under the water are not calm.Lookonchain data shows that a giant whale who has held coins for more than five years sold about a centralized exchange$4 billion Bitcoinand transfer to Ethereum.
In terms of ETF funds flow, although the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs per week has exceeded US$2 billion, it confirms that Bitcoin has become an institutional-level asset.But since late August,ETF capital inflows have slowed sharply.
The balance sheet buying of a company, which was once a constant positive factor, has also begun to weaken.These changes make the September rate cut a conditional trigger for the market rather than a direct catalyst.
Key technologies resistance analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is in a balance between key support and resistance.$108,000 is the key support level, while $114,000 constitutes important resistance.
Market analysts generally believe that unless Bitcoin can effectively break through $114,000 and stand firm, any gains may be just a short-term rebound.
Coinglass liquidation heat map warns that if the price falls below $107,000, about$390 million long leverageIt will be forced to close its positions, which may trigger a waterfall-like decline.
September’s history performance is unfavorable
Historical data also does not support Bitcoin’s sharp rise in September.Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed down 8 times in the past 12 September, with an average return of approximately-3.80%.
Market veterans call it the “September Effect”, which means that traders usually lock in profits after the summer market ends, or readjust portfolios before the fourth quarter.
It is particularly noteworthy that September 8th is historically bearish.Cryptocurrency analyst Timothy Peterson pointed out that Bitcoin hasA 72% chance of closing down, the average decline was 1.30%.
The halving cycle effect weakens
Traditionally, Bitcoin halving has affected the price of currency through four aspects: enhancing scarcity, pushing up production costs, stimulating market psychological expectations and changing supply and demand relationships.
Historically, prices have risen sharply after the halving incident: after the halving in 2012, the price soared from $12 to $1,200; from $650 to $19,000 in 2016, and from $8,500 to $69,000 in 2020.
However, as the process of Bitcoin institutionalization accelerates and a large amount of funds flows into the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the correlation between the halving cycle and the price of Bitcoin may have weakened.
Apart from psychological, self-fulfilling prophecies, there is no fundamental reason why Bitcoin must peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The impact of US dollar trend weakens
A weakening of the US dollar could have helped Bitcoin bulls.Forex traders turned bearish on the dollar as the U.S. economy slowed down and expectations of a Fed rate cut rose.
However, as of recent times, the 52-week correlation coefficient of Bitcoin and the US dollar index (DXY) has dropped to-0.25, hitting its lowest level in two years.This shows that Bitcoin is gradually getting rid of its dependence on the US dollar trend, reducing the boost effect of the dollar’s weakness on Bitcoin.
Based on the current market conditions, it is recommended to adopt a cautious strategy in operation.For short-term traders, consider range operations near key support and resistance levels.
Analyst ZYN predicts Bitcoin may hit a new high in the next 4-6 weeks, surpassing$124,500.But this requires Bitcoin to first recover $114,000 and hold $108,000 as support.
For long-term investors, continuing to hold Bitcoin may be a reasonable choice.The massive inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the possible Fed rate cut are supportive factors.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in two years, meaning the impact of traditional macro factors on cryptocurrencies is weakening.
Even if the Fed cuts interest rates as expected, it may not drive Bitcoin’s breakthrough$120,000Resistance level.The market needs stronger ETF inflows or real liquidity expansion to break through this critical barrier.
Bitcoin is maturing and the traditional cyclical model may no longer apply.Institutional funding, political factors (such as Trump turns cryptocurrencies into election issues) and structural buying now overwhelms historical economic cycle effects.
