jakiro
BTC fell continuously after hitting 65k yesterday and has now retreated below 63k.There is no sentiment in the market now.BTC rises and falls, and counterfeits falls and falls.Ethereum (ETH), the largest leader in altcoins and public chains, is denominated in BTC and is constantly falling.ETH/BTC has completely lost the key psychological barrier of 0.5 and has reached the 0.4 line.This made many ETH’s heavy investors break their minds. Even the photos of founder Vitalik Buterin being busy with love and romance were caught by the community, and he was criticized for not doing his job properly.
The ETH leeks scolded them reasonably.After all, Vitalik talks about his girlfriend’s expenses, and the Ethereum Foundation spends a lot of money every year to pay high salaries, all of which come from selling ETH in the secondary market.In other words, it is all bought by ETH’s leeks.
That year, the Ethereum Foundation held a large amount of zero-cost ETH.Now we have to sell $100 million to the market every year to maintain its expensive operation.It has been 10 years since the project was launched in 2013.
If compared with humans, Ethereum is in his teens.According to [“8.25 Teaching Chain Internal Reference: The Ethereum Foundation may exhaust its reserves in 8 years”], the foundation can still operate like this for 8 years.At the age of 18, it happens to be an independent person who is separated from his parents.
A person before the age of 18 is still a child raised by a guardian and cared for by a guardian.After the age of 18, he will start to become self-reliant.
From this metaphor, the leeks who are now taking over the selling pressure of the Ethereum Foundation in the secondary market, essentially paying for the foundation’s expenditures are Ethereum’s current adoptive parents and guardians.
Parents scold their children for not seeking progress, not only are they getting further and further away from the top (BTC), but they also see the danger of being surpassed by other students who come from behind (such as SOL). This is completely logical and human ethics..
Bitcoin (BTC) is different.The child has been self-reliant since he left his biological mother Satoshi Nakamoto’s arms.He doesn’t owe anyone anything.No one is qualified to accuse him.He was like Sun Wukong, who was born to be the Monkey King and to upend the old order.(Tell me more, why is Satoshi Nakamoto the biological mother (implementer), because the biological father (insenior) of BTC is David and Nick Sabo – Satoshi Nakamoto once said in a post on July 20, 2010Bitcoin is an implementation of Wei Dai’s b-money proposal and Nick Szabo’s Bitgold proposal)
Adolescence is a period of rebellion and confusion in life.We don’t know whether Ethereum can make a fortune after the age of 18 or continue to rely on his parents. These problems are still far from the time to get a headache.But what is in front of us now is the problem of rebellion and unruly in growth, which bring about the problem of regression in achievements.
The above chart is the trend chart of ETH/BTC since 2016.The wedge shape of the large cycle makes this psychological confusion that is neither up nor down vividly appear on the paper.I was once proud to surpass the first place, but now I seem to be unable to defend myself and not retreat or decline.
The Education Chain specially found out the most important “big tests” in recent years, namely the key upgrade of the Ethereum main network: the London upgrade on August 5, 2021 (introducing the EIP-1559 combustion mechanism), and the September 15, 2022Paris upgrade (PoW to PoS), Shanghai upgrade on April 12, 2023 (open PoS withdrawal), Cancun upgrade on May 13, 2024 (introducing EIP-4844 data fragment expansion).
Especially in Cancun’s upgrade in May this year, data shards were launched, giving greater support to the second-layer network (L2) and also reducing the cost of the first-layer main network, reducing combustion and expanding inflation.After Cancun’s upgrade, ETH/BTC fell straight, and the flying current fell three thousand feet, and was about to become the culprit for breaking downward through the wedge of the large cycle.
With the recent sluggish market activity, the fuel fee (gas fee) of the first layer of Ethereum’s main network has remained below 1 gwei for several days!This made people who experienced the 2021 bull market and burned gases on this “noble chain” a little dazed for a moment.
So some netizens said alarmistly:Ethereum is heading for destruction, while L2 is dancing on its grave.“
His logic is: Ethereum mistakenly chose the route to expand to layer 2 (L2). When all the execution tasks are outsourced to layer 2, the main network of the first layer lacks use and burns, thus unable to consume inflation caused by PoS.L2s have been making rapid progress and have continuously set new highs in user volume and expense revenue.
At the same time, he added: The emergence of a large number of L2s that are separated from each other has made the entire Ethereum ecosystem more and more fragmented – traffic fragmented, liquidity fragmented, user fragmented,… There is almost no realistic possibility.Reintegrate these fragmented things.
Moreover, he continued: In fact, the top ten L2s are currently controlled by centralization.In theory, they can steal users’ assets at any time.And the roadmap toward full decentralization is nowhere to be achieved…
Also, he believes that since L2 people are almost all driven by VC capital (VC), they have formed a powerful interest group that will have a huge influence on Ethereum, making it almost impossible to return to the direct one.The old path of expansion of the layer is because it will directly destroy the space and capital value of L2 people.
Finally, he concluded: L2 are efficiently stealing Ethereum’s user and fee income.And we can never go back.In the best case, L2 will become a competitor.In the worst case, L2 will become a vampire attack, slowly sucking Ethereum’s life.When Ethereum dies, L2 will move to other chains to continue sucking blood, or directly transform themselves into chains.
Undoubtedly, the above logical deductions and narratives are black, melancholy, and pessimistic.
He seemed to have forgotten that L2 still needed to package the transaction and write it back to Ethereum.
In this sense, when Ethereum found that the old ETH 2.0 expansion solution could not work and chose to expand to L2, it had quietly changed its positioning: from a general computing layer to a secure storage space provisioning layer.
For anyone who opposes expansion to the second level and insists on expansion at the first level, they may really not understand how huge a challenge computing sharding and parallelization are for the current human technological capabilities, let alone,It must be done under a decentralized architecture.
It is precisely because I know that this problem is almost unsolvable that the Chain clearly predicted in the third prophecy in the article “Three Prophecies” on December 20, 2020, “Regarding ETH’s expansion route, 2.0 or 1.0+rollup.I think the original Eth2 vision and route will most likely fail and will be forced to change the technical route.And at this stage next year, the second-layer rollup expansion will be a more pragmatic and optimistic route.Optimistic and zk in rollup, optimistic about the former (at the current visible stage).“
In 2021, two optimistic rollups, one Arbitrum and the other Optimism were launched one after another.
On December 3, 2021, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin tweeted, officially announcing a new roadmap for Ethereum’s subsequent development.This declares a complete abandonment of the old 2.0 route and officially moves to a new expansion plan.(See the article “The Great Merger: Ethereum’s Patriotic War!” in 2021.12.4)
On this issue, Jiaolian still believes in the technical level of Vitalik and the Ethereum Foundation they lead.They can’t handle the direct expansion of the first layer, and it is absolutely impossible for other public chains to realize it without paying additional costs.
However, no public or new public chain that claims to be high-performance will tell the leeks what the extra cost they pay.
They were so secretive that they kept silent.
Teaching Chain can tell you that no matter what the specific technical form of this cost is, they almost always point to one point: more centralized.
The problem is that sacrificing decentralization and compromising to centralization is a fallacy that can continue to decline.
If people can accept three-point centralization, they can accept ten-point centralization.
If even centralization is acceptable, then why not use the Internet system?Isn’t it fast, good and cheap!
The desolation after Ethereum’s expansion is not so much a failure but a success.After all, the goal of expansion is to expand supply.According to the basic principles of the market economy, oversupply will inevitably mean a decline in prices.
The only problem is that Ethereum is taking a bit big:
First, PoW to PoS has expanded the supply of incremental ETH.(Although the stock has been burned, the teaching chain has analyzed it and the two cannot be offset)
Second, expand the capacity to L2 and expand the supply of the execution layer. L2 is emerging one after another, and the number of users is not enough to share.
Third, data fragmentation expansion has expanded, expanding the supply of a layer of block space.
These three major steps are concentrated in the coming online in 2022-2024, and it just happened to be superimposed on a new bear market cycle. Can the market digest it?
All the problems ultimately lie in the lack of user base and activity.The solution to all problems also depends on the prosperity of all second-tier ecology several times or dozens of times, bringing greater number of users and activity.
The dilemma in life must be solved by growth.The problem of development still needs to be solved by development.
