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In the past two months, “treasury companies”(Treasury companies)More than 3.4 million ETHs have been acquired in total.Based on the current market price, it is worth $14.6 billion.
Fund rotation is emerging in various markets.BTC’s dominance has dropped from 65% to 57%.ETH rose 81% (up 171% from April lows).
But these are all past.Now we need to look forward.
This week, we share an on-chain data update while expecting the next move of ETH.
ETH and BTC
Data: DeFi Report
As noted in the introduction, liquidity has been flowing into ETH through “treasury” companies.
It also flows into the ETF…
ETF
Net inflows to ETH have exceeded $9.4 billion since July 1 – a staggering number in such a short time.
These funding flows put the ETH ETFs combined in the top 10 of all ETFs in the market – a sign that institutional demand is at a level previously seen only top stock and bond ETFs.
Total, the net inflow of ETH ETF has been nearly US$14 billion and holds US$29 billion in managed assets (AUM).Together, they hold 5.4% of the supply of issued ETH.
During the same period, the net inflow of BTC was US$5.4 billion.
Data: DeFi Report, Glassnode
Investors are turning to ETH.We believe this trend will continue.
But it won’t be a straight line.
Options open contract
Data: Glassnode
Further evidence on where investor interest and risk appetite turn is that ETH options open interest is currently over $15 billion, slightly below all-time highs.
It has risen by 158% in the past two months alone.We believe that a large part of this is the institution hedging ETF exposure.
For reference, BTC open interest is currently at $44 billion, down from the all-time high of $54 billion set in mid-August.
Verifier queue
Data: validatorqueue
There are currently 927,000 ETHs (worth $4 billion) waiting to be exited from the staking queue.
It’s no surprise given that ETH has risen 81% over the past few months and 171% from its April low.
Meanwhile, 787,000 ETHs (worth $3.4 billion) are currently entering the validator queue (probably the ETH Treasury stakes its ETH for the purpose of earnings).
How many exited ETH may be sold?
This is hard to say.A large amount of pledged ETH is stored on cryptocurrency exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance and Kraken.Part of the flow may be due to operations in a bull market.Of course, some of them are likely to be sold.
As this reshuffle occurs, we may see some fluctuations in ETH prices (and some FUDs on crypto Twitter, namely fear, uncertainty, and doubt).
DeFi: Active Loans
Data: DeFi Report, Token Terminal
With active loans approaching $40 billion, Ethereum DeFi is vibrant and well-growing.
The vast majority (71%) are on Aave.
Aave will rank 38th in Bank of America by total value (TVL) in managed total assets/smart contracts.
DEX trading volume
Data: DeFi Report
The average daily DEX trading volume was up 266% from its April low, with the L1 blockchain driving about 67% of trading volume.
L1 transaction fee
Data: DeFi Report
With the increase in DeFi activity, the average transaction fee for L1 has soared for the first time since the fourth quarter of last year.
Reflexive flywheel is running: Price —> On-chain activity —> Improved fundamentals (demand for block space and higher transaction fees) —> Price —> On-chain activity.
Long-term holders net unrealized profit/loss
Data: Glassnode
In terms of net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) for long-term holders, ETH has not yet reached the extreme levels we have seen in the past cycle (the blue part).
Market value and realization value
Data: Glassnode
Actual prices represent the average cost basis for the supply of ETH circulation.It’s $2300 now.
When the market value deviates significantly from the realized value, it indicates that the market is overheating.
The current reading is 1.87 (MVRV ratio).This shows that ETH holders hold an average of 87% of unrealized gains.
The MVRV ratio reached 2.2 in the first quarter of last year and reached 3.8 in the 21-year cycle.
*Please note that this data captures only the on-chain ETH (excluding those held in ETFs and those held by exchanges).
