Ethereum: The value transition from public chain infrastructure to global financial ecosystem

Author: Trend Research

1. The underlying logic of the public chain: platform thinking drives ecological expansion

The core advantage of Ethereum lies in the platform-based development of the open ecosystem, and its path follows the logic of “Internet-style expansion”.

1. Focus on L2 expansion in the early stage: Reduce transaction costs, increase throughput through technologies such as Rollup, and quickly gather ecological applications and user bases such as DeFi and NFT (refer to Alipay and WeChat’s Internet thinking of “traffic first, monetization later”);

2. Undertake large-scale settlement later: After the main network TPS (transaction processing per second) increases, it will gradually carry large settlement needs such as payments and asset transactions, forming a positive cycle of “user growth → ecological prosperity → settlement capability upgrade”.

2. Value anchoring: TVL-driven valuation system

The lower limit of ETH’s valuation is determined by the total ecological lock-up volume (TVL), and continues to rise with the ecological expansion.

1. Ecological stickiness brings profit potential: After users form usage habits due to the application, the platform can achieve “profit” (profit) by slightly increasing the handling fee, while ecological prosperity will push up TVL in reverse and consolidate the intrinsic value of ETH;

2. New trends amplify value boundaries:Scenarios such as tokenization of U.S. stocks and RWA (real world assets on the chain, such as real estate and bonds) directly increase ecological TVL and fee throughput.According to 30-year calculations, if the scale of stablecoins reaches 3 trillion and RWA reaches 20 trillion, the minimum market value of ETH can correspond to 3 trillion.

3. Evolution of currency attributes: from payment instrument to “currency settlement layer”

The usage scenarios of currency always flow to the areas with the largest transaction volume. The ultimate value of ETH is to become the “settlement layer of currency”.

1. Payment system vs monetary system: If ETH is only used as a payment tool, its market value will be benchmarked against SWIFT (lower limit of valuation); if its ecology corresponds to the global monetary system (covering all scenarios of payment, assets, credit, etc.), the value space will have no upper limit;

2. Segmentation needs in the AI era: AI-driven small-amount rapid settlement (such as computing power transactions, cross-domain micropayments) requires stable coins (price stability, efficient execution), and ETH, as the underlying public chain, supports stable currency issuance, cross-chain settlement and complex financial logic, becoming the “infrastructure for currency automation.”

4. Beyond payment: building a full-stack financial ecosystem

The value of ETH is far more than “payment”, but a full-stack financial infrastructure covering asset issuance, banking services, and business functions.

1. Asset issuance and trading

   Support the tokenization of US stocks and RWA (real world assets on the chain), realize the standardized issuance of assets, on-chain transactions and liquidation through smart contracts, and break the traditional intermediary barriers;

2. Bank-level financial services

   Deposit: Users can earn interest (decentralized “deposit”) by depositing ETH or stablecoins into DeFi protocols (such as Aave);

   loan: Mortgage ETH to quickly obtain loans (such as MakerDAO issuing DAI) without bank review, and the interest rate is adjusted in real time by an algorithm;

   Exchange function: Support decentralized exchanges (DEX) and NFT platforms to realize independent trading and circulation of assets;

3. Business Ecological Empowerment

   Payment settlement: Merchants around the world can accept ETH/stablecoin payments, and cross-border payments arrive in seconds, at a cost that is only 1/10 of traditional SWIFT;

   supply chain finance: Smart contracts automatically complete account verification and financing loans (such as trade financing “cash on delivery” automatically triggered);

   business automation: Support enterprises to build decentralized markets (such as digital art trading platforms) and realize full-link automation of “issuance-transaction-settlement”.

5. Open Ecology: ETH’s Long-term Competitiveness Moat

The “openness” of ETH is its core barrier that distinguishes it from BTC (a closed system that focuses on value storage):

1. Developer friendly: Supports programming languages such as Solidity, and any developer can freely build applications (from finance to games, from social networking to the Internet of Things);

2. Scene without borders: Embrace emerging trends such as AI and RWA, allowing both traditional financial assets (such as stocks and bonds) and emerging digital assets (such as AI computing power and data) to flow on the chain;

3. Financial logic programmable: Through smart contracts, financial transactions and business logic can be “coded” and executed (such as automatic dividends, automatic liquidation), completely breaking the geographical, time, and intermediary restrictions of traditional finance.

6. Future Outlook: From “Financial Operating System” to “Global Settlement Bottom Layer”

The essence of ETH’s development logic is to upgrade from a “payment network” to a “global financial operating system”:

1. short term: Reduce transaction costs through L2 expansion and gather users and ecology (refer to Amazon’s “scale first, profit later” logic);

2. medium term: Promote the tokenization of US stocks, the implementation of RWA, and expand TVL (total lock-up volume) and application scenarios;

3. long term: Become the settlement base of the global monetary system in the AI era, covering the entire “payment + assets + finance + business” scenario, releasing unlimited value space.

Conclusion

ETH’s ultimate ambition is to become the “Windows of Finance” – when currency requires automation, globalization, and intelligent settlement, its comprehensive functions of an open ecosystem will reshape the global financial ecosystem, and the value space will continue to open up as the ecosystem expands.