jakiro
Author: Eric SJ, Researcher Source: X, @SJ95E
Let’s talk about the conclusion first: the sector’s capital attention is constantly diluted, the fund consensus is disordered, and it is difficult to capture high-quality price chips under market sentiment. According to the public information of the data website, the current market value of ETH L2 is more than 20 billion yuan, and this growth trend is believed to be in the future.Some upgrades and adjustments of ether remain stable, but this growth may not necessarily bring enough alpha benefits.
Recently, STRK logged into the secondary market and has a relatively fragmented view of it from the perspective of market consensus. Judging from the current #Binance market, the trend is not very consistent with emotional expectations. Although I think its long-term development will have high growth potential,However, judging from the transition trend of the sector from the primary market to the secondary market, there are still enough star L2 logins in the future. Overall, although the overall market value will further increase, the financial consensus within the sector will also be divided.
The phenomenon of “more meat and more wolf” is used to describe the L2 track, which is too vivid. At present, the eight well-known L2s account for 98% of the market share in the entire track, and the rest are some L2 small coins.Go to the score: One super and many strong ones are not enough to describe this track.
The gradual login of celebrity L2 will not only cause a certain diversion to existing projects, but will also further squeeze the L2 living space that has not been paid attention to by the market. From the user’s perspective, if I want to invest in an L2 project in the future, How should I choose to outperform the Beta?At present, we can only ask questions, and this is the problem: 1. Under normal logic, choosing a small market value does have the potential for high growth, but as I said above, the previous few L2s are all strong and terrible. At present,What to use for small coins in the sector?And after playing one, there is another… 2. The bet on the number of people with larger market value, the gap between them is not particularly large, and the market share is almost the same. The degree to which a wave of market conditions can be tied.How to choose?3. Even based on the growth trend of TVL (it has increased by more than 3 times in a year), it is difficult for us to choose now~
Last year, there would be no mistakes in choosing the leading ARB and OP without any brains. At that time, the second level of the market was much easier to choose. Now, from my personal perspective: because I own OP, I amOne of the main positions, plus it is a relatively good price, so this part is still there. Other small positions, some of the second-tier coins that have been created will find an opportunity to clear them and collect them.The funds have been mentioned. Many friends have asked me to look at various second-tiers before. The recommended fundamentals are OK, but good targets are suitable for buying. Judging from the launch of this STRK, the second-tier narrative is one after another. It is difficult for us to do the same as before.The secondary market has picked up many high-quality bargaining chips, even if it has just been launched, this is the primary principle of betting on the target.L2 in small market value is too difficult to choose, and the alpha profit of star L2 is also decreasing as the new star goes online and overall expectations decrease.
= Just like the DEX track, because of the homogeneity of business models and the competitive environment of the sector, it is difficult for us to really say which DEX is really worth holding for a long time = the current L2 and the L2 sector in the future.It’s in this situation
“It’s hard to choose, don’t choose it, change the track” (Community @4ceLabs)
