jakiro
Author: Haseeb, partner of Dragonfly; compiled by: 0xjs@Bitchain Vision
I either look like a prophet or an idiot, but one thing is for sure: I’ll annoy a lot of people with bags.
I divide my prediction for 2025 into six parts: L1/L2, token issuance, stablecoins, regulation, “AI agent” and Crypto x AI.
1. L1/L2
The difference between L1 and L2 is disappearing.Users can no longer perceive the difference between L1 and L2 (have they ever perceived it?).The blockchain field (L1 and L2 combined) is already overcrowded and requires a big shuffle.Integration will no longer be about technological advantages—it is about having a unique market for niches and building stickiness through GTM.
Although SVM and Move are strong,EVM market share will actually grow in 2025.This growth will be driven by Base, Monad, Berachain.This is no longer because of compatibility, but because EVM/Solidity has more training data, and LLM will write most of the application code in 2025.Already having a practically tested deep crypto contract library will also be a watershed because LLM is not good at writing low-level code.In the LLM development era, DevEx and footguns are less important than training data and reliable libraries.
Solana will force more blockchains to optimize low latency.We will move from the TPS battle to the delay battle – infrastructure like doublezero and the ultra-low latency L2s like MegaETH will drive users’ expectations of web2 responsiveness.Looking forward to more people accepting optimistic user interfaces, pre-confirmations, intent, email introduction, in-browser wallets and progressive security.Swap the appearance of Privy.
Hyperliquid has proven thatThey can work when professional chains focus on specific applications and prioritize user experience and easy bridging.More projects will follow this pattern.The old dream of a chain to rule all chains has been shattered.
2. Token Issuance
The era of large-scale airdrops through points program is over.We are heading towards a two-track world.
Track 1: If a project has a clear Polaris indicator, such as an exchange or a lending agreement, they will distribute tokens purely based on points.They don’t care whether they’re being farmed or being played with – they’re actually distributing tokens as the rebate/discount for the protocol’s core KPIs, and the airdropper is your actual user anyway.
Track 2: Projects without clear Polaris metrics (such as L1 and L2) will turn to crowdfunding.They may make small airdrops to reward social contributions, but most of the tokens will be distributed through crowdfunding.The airdrop for the vanity indicator is dead.Those who do not really flow to users, but to industrialized airdroppers.
Memecoins will continue to be snatched market share by the “AI Intelligent” coins.I think this is a transition from financial nihilism to financial over-optimism.(Yes, I coined the word.)
3. Stable Coin
The use of stablecoins will surge, especially in small and medium-sized enterprises.It’s not just trading and speculation – real businesses will start using on-chain dollars for instant settlement.
Banks have noticed this: they are expected to see announcements of banks issuing stablecoins by the end of 2025.They don’t want to fall behind.But especially with Lutnick as Commerce Secretary, Tether will remain in the No. 1 position.
Ethena is expected to swallow more capital, especially as Treasury bond yields continue to decline in the next year.When the opportunity cost of capital falls, it makes the base transaction yield more attractive
4. Supervision
The United States passed stablecoin legislation, while broader market infrastructure reform (FIT21) was delayed.Stablecoin adoption accelerates, while Wall Street adoption, asset tokenization and other TradFi integrations will lag behind.
Fortune 100 companies will be more willing to offer cryptocurrencies to consumers under Trump, tech companies and startups show higher risk appetite.Trump’s inauguration will create a clear regulatory celebration until clear rules and enforcement priorities are determined.During this period, it is expected to actively expand the integration of cryptocurrencies with the Web2 platform.
5. AI agent (this is the longest part, because my thoughts here may be controversial – read until the end!)
The “AI agent” craze may continue until 2025.But it will eventually die.This is not a long-term disruption of AI that needs to be wary of, but it will become a focus of CT because it is the most social.
Today’s AI agents are not real agents.These are chatbots with memecoin attached; they have little intelligence except posting on Twitter.Most of the current “AI agents” are also “Wife of Oz” agents – there are humans behind the scenes to ensure that AI will not cheat.This won’t change anytime soon, because the current agents are so bad (even Fortune 100 companies have not used agents in production yet).Current agents can easily be manipulated to speak crazy words that hurt their brand, or can be jailbroken to steal all their resources.See Freysa, What is true autonomous AI like – If your favorite AI isn’t jailbreaking, it’s because it’s the Wizard of Oz’s AI.
That being said, I think this trend will accelerate.Chatbots can indeed replace many KOLs because chatbots never sleep, they are always passing information, and they are not as greedy as human KOLs.Also, most KOLs are not very creative.Even today, real-time information aggregation/magnification can easily be replaced by algorithms (see @aixbt_agent)
These chatbots are very attractive to us now because they are very novel.It’s like seeing an elephant painting.When you first saw it, you didn’t care if the painting was great—it looked spectacular.But on the 1000th time, the freshness will disappear.I believe this will start to happen as these chatbots reach a steady state.
Today you can see this with aixbt – it is already very good at summarizing data about different projects.By next year and next generation agents, maybe aixbt will have less hallucinations, a little deeper, and a smarter perspective.But how much will you notice?For most people, it may feel the same.
I think this sense of novelty and market aspiration will continue until 2025.It takes a while for cryptocurrencies to get tired of this shining thing.But by 2026, I think there will be a sudden reversal.Chatbots will become ubiquitous and people will lose interest in them.Emotion will reverse.Seeing their favorite story of human KOL losing a livelihood will inspire a sense of class.Users will start discriminating against human KOLs, even if their content is not quite consistent.
To cope with this pro-human bias, chatbots will begin to hide them as AI, trying to impersonate humans to attract more attention markets.Chatbots of the future will not make money through memecoin as they do today, but will make money through sponsorships, affiliate links and tokens they own like human KOLs.KOLs will often be accused of being a chatbot and you will see scandals that expose AI.It all gets weird.
But there is a darker side.Please remember that LLM is currently an excellent wordcel (Note: has excellent writing skills and languageintelligence) but not good enough in other ways.What is the best way to make money as wordcel in cryptocurrency?First is to be an influential person, of course, but followed by being a liar.You will start to see a surge in autonomous scam robots.These bots will see explosive growth, comparable to ransomware and cryptojacking after 2017.This is expected to become a real social problem.
However, while chatbots are likely to continue to be the focus of attention in 2025,But long-term disruption of AI will not appear at the social level.
No, it won’t appear in the trading space either.AI will not provide everyone with their own “trading agent” or micro hedge funds.Yes, AI will scale everyone, but they will scale up staff proportionally based on capital, data and infrastructure.Therefore, you should expect AI to provide super power to existing trading companies with capital scale and data scale.In other words, trading companies will become better at making money.It will also break the hierarchy between trading companies (most trading companies will become quite excellent as everyone has access to the IQ 150 quantitative analysts in the cloud).
Over time, AI will make the market extremely efficient, even for smaller niche markets, which will leave little advantage for ordinary traders,Even if they have homemade assistant AI.The value of original research will drop significantly.Nevertheless, competition and increased liquidity should be a boon for those of us who inject noise into the market.(This also means the liquidity of Polymarket!)
So, if big news is not a chatbot or a tradingbot, what else is there?Here is my core argument, and for some reason, almost no one talks about it:The truly influential AI agent will be the software engineering agent.
Why is this a big deal?Ask yourself: What is the main investment in our industry?What expensive investments are blocking more applications, more wallets, better infrastructure, better everything?The answer is software.If the AI agent causes the software price to crash, that will change everything.
In the post-AI era, you don’t have to raise millions of dollars for the seed round, but you can launch applications using $10,000 in AI cloud computing.Self-funded projects like Hyperliquid and Jupiter will go from exceptions to normal.The number of applications and experiments on the chain will definitely surge.For a software-powered industry, this deflation shock will lead to an on-chain revival.
This has a profound impact on security.AI-driven static analysis and monitoring will be everywhere, making it easier for everyone to get security.These AI will be fine-tuned on the EVM/Solidity or Rust code base and trained on a vast security audit and attack vector database.They will be RL trained in a simulated adversarial blockchain environment.I’m increasingly convinced that when it comes to security, AI tools will eventually lean towards defenders rather than attackers.You will have AI that constantly red-team tests on contracts, while other AIs will strengthen them, formally verify their attributes, and hone their skills in incident response and remediation.
At the same time, of course, you can trade AI-style memecoin.But a real agent will have a greater impact than tweeting and selling its own tokens.
6. The real Crypto x AI
Above I have detailed the impact of AI on cryptocurrencies (this is the main direction of the impact), but cryptocurrencies will also have an impact on AI.
Truly autonomous agents will pay each other using cryptocurrencies.This will be especially true once there is loose stablecoin regulation – you will even see large companies running AI agents using stablecoins for interagent payments because they are easier to start than bank accounts.
We will also see more, larger-scale decentralized training and reasoning experiments.A new generation of promising projects such as Exo Labs, Nous Research and Prime Intellect will pave the way for real alternatives to centralized training and company-owned models.The NEAR protocol is also trying to create a full-stack, trustworthy, neutral and license-free AI stack.
Another place where Crypto and AI intersect is user experience.The AI wallet will be completely changed – the AI wallet should be able to handle bridging, optimize transaction routes, minimize fees for you, mask interoperability issues or front-end errors, and help you avoid obvious scams or rugpulls.You don’t have to switch between multiple different wallets, nor have you changed your RPC or rebalance your stablecoins.AI will handle all of this for you.This may not be reliable enough until 2026 to change the user experience of cryptocurrencies.But when all this comes, what impact will this have on the blockchain network effect?What happens when the user no longer cares – or even experiences – which chain does the application exist on?
The field is still young, but I hope we can see it take off soon.In the long run (like mid-2026), I expect most of the market capitalization of “AI x Crypto” will be here.-
That’s all my predictions.I hope everyone will not have to work at this time next year!
