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Author: Mohamed Allam, Messari protocol research analyst; compiled by: 0xjs@Golden Finance
A few weeks ago, I wrote an article titled “Stand to your investment paper or you will lose money” and my goodness, it feels like no one has an investment paper – and most importantly, everyone is losing money.If this is your first cryptocurrency cycle, welcome to the casino.If you try to bet against the dealer, you will lose.Ahem, $TRUMP, $LIBRA, $JAILSTOOL and $CAR.These are just mainstream Memes, but if you’re really in the trenches, you know that this is just the first layer of onions.
Let me say it again:If you treat cryptocurrency as a casino, it treats you as a gambler.
In the casino, one in five players will win money on the jackpot machine.This means that the vast majority of people are losers—even the “winners”, if you count how much they lost before winning, they are not really winning.Suppose you bet on a bunch of meme coins, lose money again and again, and finally win the jackpot.what happens?You think you are special.You thought you had cracked the password.But in reality, your victory is just an exception, and if you keep playing, the casino will take the money away.
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Casino attracts you with free buffets and dreams of financial freedom.Memecoin tempts you with airdrops, 10,000 times dreams, wife swap rewards and shiny Rolex.
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The casino sets rules to let you play until they decide to spit you out.Twitter KOL sends the emoticon to the moon and then throws you into the cold palace.
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When you have bad luck, the casino will peddle you the fantasy of “a big win” .Memecoin has the same effect, but the possibility of success is smaller.
Mathematics – Why You May Lose
Now, I’m a math person, so let’s discuss it in simple EnglishThe law of large numbers.
The law states that as the number of trials increases, your results will get closer to the expected average.In gambling, the expected average is the money you lose.Both casinos and gambling games are built around this principle.The more you play, the more your personal outcomes tend toward the casino advantage.
Think of it like this: If you toss a coin 10 times, there may be 7 frontals and 3 backals – anomalies occur in small samples.But if you toss a coin 1,000 times, the result will be closer to 50/50.The same logic applies to betting on meme coins.You may be lucky once or twice, but after enough transactions, the expected results will return to reality.And the reality is that Twitter KOLs are getting richer and richer, while you are carrying huge losses.
So, how can a winner win?
1. Enter early – but we have to face the reality that even the smartest people cannot leave on time, and entering early is almost impossible.
2. Becoming an insider trader – despicable, bad.
3. Becoming a KOL to do destruction – it’s also very despicable.
So, in short, it’s a game of luck unless you meet the above criteria, but you may not be satisfied, including me.
That being said, the stigma of cryptocurrencies needs to be changed.Memecoin almost always won’t make you rich.If you really care about the field, study and develop a paper – a real paper.
It is not a rational idea to make 10,000 times in a few hours.It is a rational idea to make 2-4 times in 2-5 years.If you understand this, you can make money (NFA, of course).Don’t let Meme cycle devour you.
Will Meme coins disappear?Won’t.
The peak of crime has arrived?Yes.And it’s likely to be the case forever.
butIf you want cryptocurrencies to succeed in this gray world, you need to be prepared and understand what you are investing in.
