jakiro
Author: Route 2 FI, encryption researcher; Translation: Bitchain Vision xiaozou
To understand why sentiment on Crypto Twitter (CT) is so gloomy, look no further than the fact that the current prices of the top 50 altcoins have all fallen below their post-FTX crash lows in 2022.
What’s even more serious is that mainstream currencies such as SOL, ETH, and BTC have also fallen back to December 2024 levels.
In this cycle, most CT users did not obtain substantial benefits and began to fall into a state of “all-or-nothing” anxiety..Combine the current negative sentiment with late-cycle characteristics (if you believe in the four-year cycle theory), and we are actually past the 18-month historical peak.
The crypto world as we know it is being reshaped before our eyes.In the past four years, most token issuances have adopted a low-circulation, high-FDV model., and Polychain’s sale of $240 million in TIA in July this year is just the tip of the iceberg.But are they really to blame?If you think about it, they are just executing a predetermined strategy, and anyone holding an unlocked token would make the same choice if they were in their position.
Do you still remember the golden age when tokens skyrocketed when they were listed on CEX?Those days are gone too.Almost everyone is feeling frustrated right now:Traders are adapting to the new rules, Memecoin players are trapped in an involution game, founders complain that users are not using their protocol, retail investors blame market saturation, and VCs miss the days of easy profits (the hard times have already begun in 2023).
Traditional finance TradFi is here, but they won’t buy our altcoins.In any case, the status quo in 2025 is:
1. The number of tokens is overwhelming;
2. Over-stacked technology;
3. The project does not meet product market fit;
4. The token economic model fails;
5. The airdrop was immediately sold in exchange for stablecoins;
6. Transaction difficulty increases sharply(Anything worth trading and liquid is caught in a red ocean of competition).
Indeed, few believe in any project these days.
About half of crypto traders lost their money after Black Friday, and many of them may quit trading permanently.Although profits and losses come from the same source, even the exchange has withdrawn funds this time, which means that retail investors/professional traders are overall poorer.
Altcoins have entered a new phase.The problem isToo many high-valued new projects continue to drain liquidity, and even high-quality projects are affected, making the entire market increasingly fragile..
Currently, the model of issuing tokens with high FDV is prevalent:Huge airdrops, low circulation, and subsequent large-amount unlocking peaks for VCs.
We are used to thinking that all coins will rise under the right conditions.But is this really the case?It should be noted that the number of “practical” tokens on the market today has far exceeded that of 2021.Now 3-5 “high-quality” tokens are added every week, Total3’s market value is rising, and everyone is happy on the surface.But ask yourself: Who will take all these tokens?Without the entry of institutions or retail investors, the market will forever be trapped in an involution game.
Nowadays, new “high-quality” projects with ultra-high FDV emerge every week, which means that massive supply hits the market.Without new buyers, these tokens are bound to fall (at least in the long term).
As of October 2025, the capital inflow of altcoins appears to be extremely picky and is far from enough to offset the huge unlocking pressure.
Finally, share some optimistic perspectives: Whether you think the market will reach new highs or have entered a bear market, now is the time to start accumulating specific knowledge as a moat.Specific knowledge refers to skills that are unique to you (or slightly better than others). Everyone is born with areas in which they are good at – and you can break through by deeply cultivating these strengths.It’s like I’m good at writing, so I prioritize long-form tweets over videos or podcasts.
Your expertise may lie in trading, network building, sales, etc.The bottom line is: if you start honing your skills, you can always find a place in the industry.Compared with traditional finance, the employment threshold in the crypto field is much lower: content creation, CEX trading, investment research, Memecoin trading, NFT, airdrops, YouTube, press releases, Telegram, podcasts, etc. There are too many choices.
