jakiro
The cycle comes from leverage. From the fast-growing and death Meme coins to the 80-year technical coin, humans can always find some kind of power, belief or organization to create more wealth. We briefly review the current historical coordinates to frame the interweaving of stocks and bonds.
Since the great geographical discovery at the end of the 15th century, the core capitalist economies have shown the following changes:
-
Spain and Portugal – physical gold and silver + brutal colonial plantation
-
Netherlands – Stock + Company System (Dutch East India Company)
-
Britain – Gold Standard + Colonial Scissors Disparity (Rule of Force + Institutional Design + Imperial Special Offer System)
-
United States – US dollar + US debt + military stronghold (abandon direct colonization and control important strongholds)
It should be noted that later generations will absorb the advantages and disadvantages of the former. For example, the UK will also adopt the corporate system and the stock system, and the United States will also carry out force. This is an innovative point that highlights the new hegemony. Based on the above facts, two major characteristics of the classic capitalist trajectory can be found:
-
Hegemony Cop’s Law: Just as animals tend to grow bigger in evolution,The size of core economies will become larger and larger (Netherlands->UK->United States);
-
Economic debt cycle: physical assets and commodity production will give way to finance,A classic capitalist power trajectory is the process of raising funds and making profits through new financial innovations;
-
Leverage eventually collapses: from Dutch stocks to financial derivatives on Wall Street,Return pressure eclipses collateral, debt cannot be cleared, and new economies replace it.
The United States is already at the limit of global domination, and the next is the long ending moment of “I have me in you, I have you in me.”
U.S. bonds will eventually be uncontrollable, just like the British Empire after the Boer War, but to maintain a decent end, financial products such as coins, stocks, and bonds will be required to extend the countdown to the debt collapse.
Coins, stocks and bonds are each other’s pillars, gold and BTC jointly support US bonds as collateral, and stablecoins support the global adoption rate of the US dollar, making the loss of the deleveraging process more socialized.
6 ways to combine coins, stocks and bonds
Everything that makes people happy is nothing more than dreams.
Becoming bigger and more complex is the natural law of all financial tools and even organisms. When a species enters its peak period, the disorderly inversion and the increasingly complex horns and feathers are all reactions to the increasing difficulty of courtship.
Token economics starts from Bitcoin, creating an on-chain financial system out of nothing. The market value of $2 trillion in BTC is destined to be able to play a ease-based role compared to the nearly $40 trillion in US bond scale. Rui Dalio frequently calls for orders to hedge the US dollar.
Stock market liquidity has become the new pillar of tokens, Pre IPO marketization has brought about modern monetization, and stocks have become a new carrier after electronicization, and the DAT (treasury) strategy is the main axis of the first half of 2025.
However, it should be noted that there is no need to say much about the on-chainization of US bonds, but the issuance of bonds and corporate bonds based on tokens and other bonds are still in an attempt to open the chain, but small-scale practice has finally begun.
Stablecoins have become independent narratives, tokenized funds and debt will become new synonyms for RWA, and index funds, comprehensive ETFs that anchor more concepts of currency stocks and bonds, have also begun to enter funds. Will the traditional story of ETFs/indexes swallowing liquidity be staged again in the currency circle?
We cannot judge this, but forms such as altcoin DAT and pledged ETF have officially announced that the upward cycle of leverage has officially appeared.
As collateral, tokens are becoming increasingly weak in DeFi and traditional finance. USDC/USDT/USDS is needed on-chain. They are just variants of US debt in some form. It has become a new trend to need stablecoins off-chain. Before that, ETFs and RWA have made their own practices.
To sum up, there are roughly 6 ways to combine coins, stocks and bonds in the market:
-
ETF (Futures, Spot, Pledge, General)
-
Coin stocks (financialization means to transform on-chain purposes)
-
Coin Enterprise IPO (Circle represents the stage-by-stage “hard top” of stablecoin trend)
-
DAT (MSTR currency stock bond v.s ETH currency stock v.s ENA/SOL/BNB/HYPE currency)
-
Tokenized US bonds and funds (Ondo RWA theme)
-
Pre IPO market tokenization (no volume, dangerous and silent cycle, on-chain transformation of traditional finance)
The end and exit timing of the leverage cycle cannot be predicted, but the basic appearance of the cycle can be outlined.
In theory, when the altcoin DAT appeared, it was already the top of a long cycle, but just like BTC could trade sideways around $100,000, the US dollar/US bonds decided to be completely virtualized, and the released momentum required the market to digest for a long time. This digestion was often calculated in 30 years: when the Boolean War was to Britain abandoning the gold standard (1931-1902=29), the Bretton Woods system (1973-1944=29).
Ten thousand years is too long, and it’s time to seize the day, and at least before the 2026 midterm elections, Crypto has a good time.
According to statistics of the current market structure, the IPO of currency companies belongs to the highest-end and smallest track, and only a few currency companies can complete the IPO of US stocks, which also shows thatIt is the most difficult to sell yourself as an asset.
Next, it will be easier to resell existing high-quality assets. For example, BlackRock has become an undisputed giant in the field of spot BTC and ETH ETFs, and updated pledged ETFs and general-purpose ETFs will become a new high or low in the competition.
Secondly, DAT (Stategy) Company is ahead of its own and is also the only player to complete the three-party rotation of currency, stocks and bonds. That is, you can issue bonds based on BTC, thereby supporting the stock price, and the spare funds continue to buy BTC.This shows that the market recognizes the security of BTC as collateral, and also recognizes that Strategy itself “represents” the asset value of BTC.
BitMine and Sharplink in the ETH treasury company field only complete the linkage of currency stocks at best. They did not convince the market to issue bonds based on their own strength (not counting the part of bonds issued when the capital operates when buying coins), that is, the market part recognizes the value of ETH, but does not recognize the value of ETH treasury company itself. The mNAV below 1 (the total stock price is lower than the value of the held assets) is just the result.
However, as long as the value of ETH is generally recognized, the high-leverage competition will produce winners, and the final fall is only the long-tail treasury company. The remaining representativeness of ETH is obtained, and the winner will be the one after the plus/deleveraging cycle.
The current tokenized stocks are not as large as DATs, IPOs or ETFs, but have the most application prospects. The current stocks are electronic and stored on various servers. In the future, stocks will be directly circulated on the chain. Stocks are tokens, and tokens will be any asset. Robinhood built ETH L2, xStocks came to Ethereum and Solana, and SuperState’s Opening Bell helps Galaxy to tokenize stocks to Solana.
In the future, tokenized stocks will confront each other between Ethereum and Solana, but the imagination space of this scenario is also the lowest, highlighting the color of technology and services, representing the market’s recognition of blockchain technology, but asset capture capabilities will be transmitted to $ETH or $SOL.
Tokenized US bonds and fund fields have become vaguely trending on Ondo stand-alone server players. The reason is that the combination of US bonds and stablecoins is the diversion of RWA. In the future, RWA needs to explore more non-US bond fields. Just like non-US stablecoins, the market size is huge in the long run, but it will always be in the long run.
Finally, Pre IPO adopts two methods: the first is to raise funds first and then buy equity, and the second is to buy equity first and then distribute it in a tokenized manner. Of course, xStocks belongs to the secondary stock market and Pre IPO are both doing, but the core idea is to incentivize undisclosed markets tokenize and stimulate the openness of the non-public market. Pay attention to this statement, this is the expansion path of stablecoins.
However, under the current legal framework, it can only be said that there are expectations for whether there is room for regulatory arbitrage. However, after a long period of running-in, the Pre IPO will not be public soon. The core of Pre IPO is the asset pricing power issue, which is not a technical issue at all. Many distributors on Wall Street will do their best to stop it.
In contrast, equity distribution and incentive distribution of stock tokenization can be decoupled.“People in the currency circle don’t care about rights, they care more about incentives.”As for regulatory issues such as equity income tax filing, it has been practiced around the world, and on-chainization is not an obstacle.
In comparison, Pre IPO will involve Wall Street’s pricing power, and stock tokenization will amplify Wall Street’s earnings, distribution channels and more liquidity entry are completely different situations.
The rising cycle converges, the falling cycle is overturned
The so-called leverage cycle is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Any good news is worth rising twice, which continuously stimulates the increase in leverage. However, institutions cross-holding different collaterals will give priority to selling secondary currencies in the downward cycle and fleeing to safe collateral. Retail investors are not free to move and eventually take the initiative or passively take all losses.
When Jack Ma bought ETH, Huaxing Capital bought BNB, and China Merchants Bank International issued Solana tokenized funds, a new era entered our era: global economies remain connected with blockchain.
The United States is the limit under Cop’s law, and it is already the lowest cost and most efficient dominant model. However, facing an extremely complex intertwined situation, the Monroeism in the new era does not conform to the objective economic laws. The Internet can be divided, but blockchain is wonderfully and naturally integrated. Any L2, nodes and assets can be integrated in Ethereum.
From a more organic perspective, the combination of coins, stocks and bonds is the process of exchange between dealers and retail investors, which is similar to the principle of “Bitcoin rises, altcoin rises cannot keep up, Bitcoin falls, altcoin falls,” but the latter is more common in the on-chain ecosystem.
Let’s discuss this process:
-
During the rising period, institutions rely on the leverage ratio to escape to high-volatility assets with lower collateral prices. During the decline period, institutions will give priority to selling counterfeit assets to maintain high-value assets holdings;
-
The process of retail investors is the opposite. During the rising period, retail investors will sell more BTC/ETH and stablecoins to buy high volatility assets, but due to the overall scale of funds, once the market turns bearish, retail investors need to further sell BTC/ETH and stablecoins to maintain high leverage of altcoins;
-
Institutions can naturally accept greater pullbacks, and retail investors’ high-value assets will be sold to them, and retail investors’ leverage will also increase the institutions’ tolerance, and retail investors need to continue to sell their assets;
-
The end of the cycle is marked by the collapse of leverage.If retail investors are unable to maintain leverage, the entire cycle ends. If the institution collapses and causes a systemic crisis, then retail investors will still suffer the biggest loss, because the high-value assets at this time have been successively transferred to other institutions;
-
For institutions, losses will definitely be socialized. For retail investors, leverage is their own noose and has to be paid to institutions. The only hope is to run before other institutions and retail investors, which is no less difficult than landing on the moon.
The grading and evaluation of collateral is just a superficial phenomenon, and the core is to price the leverage ratio based on expectations of collateral.
This process is not enough to explain that altcoins will always fall even worse, so you can continue to add it.Retail investors will be more eager for an increase in leverage than issuers, that is to say, retail investors hope that each asset pair is 125x, but in the downward cycle, the actual competitors of the market will become retail investors themselves, and institutions often have more complex hedging strategies for asset allocation, which also needs to be borne by retail investors.
It can be summarized that leverage ratio and volatility allow the leverage ratio and volatility to be at the same frequency. Tokens, stocks and debts, we sneak in from the perspective of financial engineering. Imagine a mixed stablecoin based on US bonds and adopting Delta neutrality, which can connect a stablecoin to the form of currency, stocks and bonds. At this time, the market volatility can make the hedging mechanism take effect and even make more profits, that is, the same frequency rise.
ENA/USDe has partially possessed this feature. Let us boldly predict the movement trajectory of the deleveraging cycle. The higher the leverage, the more TVL and retail investors will trade, and the volatility will eventually reach the critical point. The project will give priority to protect the USDe anchorage rate and give up the ENA coin price. Then the DAT company’s stock price will fall, institutions will withdraw first, and retail investors will eventually take over.
Then the more terrifyingMultiple leverage cycles will occur, ENA treasury investors will sell their stocks to maintain their value in ETH and BTC treasury companies, but there will always be companies that cannot maintain and slowly storm. First, the DAT of small currency is exploded, and then the DAT of large currency is exploded. In the end, the market is in panic, and the turbulence of Strategy is observed.
Under the currency stock and bond model, the US stock market becomes the ultimate source of liquidity, and will eventually be penetrated under the linkage effect. This is not an exaggeration. The regulation of the US stock market still cannot stop the LTCM quantitative crisis. Now Trump leads everyone to issue coins together.I don’t think anyone can stop the big explosion of currency, stocks and bonds.
Global economies are connected on the blockchain and die together.
At this time, the opposite direction is moving, and everything else remains liquidity, whether on and off the chain, whether on and off the chain, whether in coins, stocks and bonds, will become a window of opportunity to seek exit. The most terrible thing is that there is no Federal Reserve on the chain, and the ultimate liquidity provider is a lack of liquidity providers, which will only make the market fall without falling, and ultimately the silence.
Everything will end and everything will begin.
After a long “pain period”, retail investors gradually accumulate the spark of BTC/ETH/stablecoins by delivering food. The new concept of BTC/ETH/stablecoins is given to institutions. A new cycle begins over. After eliminating financial magic, after debt clearance, the value created by real labor will still be needed to put an end to everything.
Readers may notice, why not talk about the stablecoin cycle?
Because stablecoins themselves are the external form of cycles,BTC/gold supports shaky U.S. bonds, stablecoins support the global adoption rate of the U.S. dollar.Stablecoins cannot form their own cycles and must be coupled with more underlying assets to have real returns. However, stablecoins will bypass US bonds and anchor more secure assets such as BTC/gold, which will make the cyclical leverage curve more ease.
Conclusion
fromThe Six Meridians are annotated by me, and I am annotated by the Six Meridians.
On-chain lending has not been involved, and the integration of DeFi and CeFi is indeed underway, but it is not closely related to currency stocks. DAT involves some, and will be reserved for institutional lending and credit models in the future to make up for the articles such as supplementary.
The focus is on examining the structural relationship between currency, stocks and bonds, and what new varieties and directions will be created. ETFs have been solidified, DATs are still fighting, stablecoins are expanding on-chain and off-chain opportunities, and currency stocks and Pre IPOs have unlimited potential, but it is difficult to transform traditional finance through compatible methods, and have not built their own internal circulation system.
Coin stocks and Pre IPOs need to solve the equity problem, but “using the solution to equity” cannot be solved. Economic effects must be created to break through supervision. Regulation will only fall into the shackles of bureaucracy. Looking at the process of stablecoins is the most obvious, and surrounding cities in rural areas is the most effective.
The IPO of a currency company is a process of redemption and pricing of cryptocurrencies by traditional finance. It will become more and more dull after that. If you want to go public, you should start as soon as possible. The concept is to take up quantitative valuations. Just like Fintech and manufacturing, the imagination space will gradually decrease with the number of listings.
The long-term layout of tokenized US bonds (funds) is difficult to achieve excess profits, and it has nothing to do with retail investors, and it also highlights the technical use of blockchain.
This article mainlyStatic macro framework, insufficient dynamic data, for example, Peter Thiel’s participation in fund allocation, investment, etc. in various DATs and ETFs.
And when leverage is withdrawn, Giant Whale and retail investors are in a reverse movement. Giant Whale will give priority to selling subprime assets and retain core assets. Retail investors must sell core assets to maintain subprime assets leverage, that is, Bitcoin rises, and counterfeits may not necessarily rise, but Bitcoin falls, and altcoins will definitely fall sharply. These all need data to explain, but they are not strong at the moment, so they can only set up a static framework to clarify their ideas.
