CICC: U.S. election viewing and trading guide

图表：2024年预估总票数是1.6亿票

Chart: According to the party registration of early voters that have been accepted by swing states, Harris has a greater lead, but there is still great uncertainty in the election results.

As the voting day on November 5 approaches, how to track the real-time election situation of the general election and when the results will be obtained are all issues that everyone is very concerned about.

1.投票时间多久？Open from east to west according to the time zone, and it is basically closed at noon on the 6th Beijing time

The rules and time of counting votes vary from state to state. For example, some states vote while voting on the day of the voting day, while some states allow statistics to start early voting before the voting day.Shortly after the state polling stations were closed, a considerable number of voting results had been counted, and the remaining votes usually do not affect the overall situation unless the election situation is very close.Therefore, under normal circumstances, the final result will generally not be later than late at night on the voting day, that is, noon on the 6th Beijing time.However, if there are many mail-in ballots or trigger a recount, the result may be delayed.Judging from the rules that the majority of mail-in ballots account for and some swing states do not allow advance statistics, the final result may be slightly delayed, but it can be released basically in the afternoon or evening of Beijing time on the 6th.If the results of individual key swing states are very close and need to be recounted, it will also delay the results release time.Specifically for the 7 most critical swing states, the following are the specific counting time and details (all are Beijing time):

► Georgia: Or the swing state that first announced the results.Georgia has a higher proportion of early voting (80%), and has been processing mail-in ballots since October 21, requiring mail-in ballots to be sent before the polling stations are closed.90% of the vote count will be completed before 10:30 am on the 6th Beijing time.Georgia does not have a trigger mechanism for automatic recounting, but if the final gap is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total number of votes, candidates can apply for recounting.

► North Carolina: Results may be obtained at noon on the 6th.North Carolina also has a higher proportion of early voting (75%), and this year’s new regulations require mail-in ballots to be received before the voting day.Early voting and voting on Election Day will be respectivelyIt will be announced between 7:30 am and 9:30 am and 8:30 pm on the 6th Beijing time.North Carolina also does not have a trigger mechanism to automatically recount votes, but if the final gap is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total number of votes or 10,000 votes, the candidate can apply for a recount.

► Michigan: The results may be released at noon on the 6th.Most constituencies in Michigan start processing mail-in ballots on October 28, and mail-in ballots must be received before the polling stations on Election Day are closed.Most areas will complete the counting on the morning of the 6th, but the complete results will not be obtained in the evening.If the statewide vote gap is less than 2,000 votes, an automatic vote recount will be triggered.

► Pennsylvania: Or announced from the afternoon to the evening of the 6th.Mailed ballots must be received before the voting day. The processing starts at 7 a.m. on the voting day and is not allowed to count in advance, so the counting time may be relatively long.If the statewide vote gap is less than or equal to 0.5%, automatic vote counting will be triggered.

► Wisconsin: It may be announced from the afternoon to the evening of the 6th.Mailed ballots must be received before the voting day. As in Pennsylvania, early counting is not allowed, but this election staff must count votes all night to speed up the announcement.Historically, the counting was usually completed before 1 p.m.Wisconsin does not have a trigger mechanism to automatically recount votes, but if the final gap is less than or equal to 1%, the candidate can apply for a recount.

► Arizona: Preliminary results may be released in the morning, but all results are expected to be 5 p.m.Most voters vote by mail and are allowed to count early, but voting on Election Day requires waiting until the vote is over before counting.Preliminary results are usually released around 10 a.m., but there are two reasons for the extended overall announcement time: 1) The number of delivery on the election day needs to be calculated and announced before the official counting of votes, 2) Maricopa County, the largest county in the state, estimates that the electionThe complete statistics of the ballots cast at the polling station on the same day may not be announced until 5 pm.The trigger threshold for automatic recounting is 0.5%.

► Nevada: How many days does it take for mail-in ballot counting?The official voting results will be announced in a few hours, but it will take several days to count the mail-in ballots.Ballots must be stamped before the voting day, and mail-in ballots will start counting after they are received, but because Nevada allows ballots to be received by November 9, the counting time will be longer.

3.How to watch the battle?Pennsylvania is the “match point”, Harris “must” win over Pennsylvania, Trump’s winning paths are more

Due to the unique electoral vote mechanism of the United States and the stable “basic board” of both parties, most states play a role in “going through the motions” in the election. For example, according to the 270towin summary polls and predictions of different models, Harris BasicLock 226 votes, Trump locks 219 votes (270 electoral votes are required to win the election).

On the contrary, some so-called “swing states” whose positions are unclear and whose elections are stalemate have become the winners and losers of the general election.There are seven swing states in this election.Blue Wall State(Blue Wall, referring to states that have supported Democratic parties in the past eight presidential elections, but turned the tables in the 2016 election) includes Michigan (15, -0.8%, the former refers to electoral votes, and the latter refers to Trump’s poll leading Harry44 votes in total; Pennsylvania (19, 0.4%), Wisconsin (10, -0.3%);“Sunlight Belt”The southern swing states include Georgia (16, 2.6%), North Carolina (16, 1.5%), Arizona (11, 2.3%) and Nevada (6, 1.5%). A total of 49 votes.Among them, Pennsylvania has become the “match point” of this election because it has 19 electoral votes.

Judging from the current possibility and path of winning, Harris “must” win over Pennsylvania, otherwise it will be almost difficult to win. Pennsylvania is equally important to Trump, but there are other paths, at least one Blue Wall State (not necessarily).It’s Pennsylvania).The following are the specific paths:

► Trump’s winning path: Trump’s only winning the “Sunbelt” swing state is not enough to reach 270 votes, and he needs to win at least one blue wall state.1) If Trump wins Pennsylvania,Just get Georgia and Arizona in the Sunbelt (both Republican polls lead by more than 2%), and North Carolina or Nevada (1.5% of Republican polls lead by 1.5%) to win.2) If Trump loses Pennsylvania,Another more likely path is to win all the Sunbelt Four states as well as Wisconsin or Michigan, with Wisconsin Democrats taking a lower lead (0.3% lead).

► Harris’s path to winning: 1) If Harris wins all Blue Wall states, especially Pennsylvania, plus the current nearly locked traditional blue state votes reaching exactly 270, this is also the path to focus on its current campaign.Among these three blue wall states, Democrats have a slight lead in Michigan and Wisconsin polls, and Pennsylvania is particularly important.2) If Harris wins Pennsylvania but loses Michigan or Wisconsin,It is necessary to pay attention to whether North Carolina can reverse (the lead rate of Republicans in other states is lower).3) If Harris loses Pennsylvania, or loses Michigan and Wisconsin at the same time,It takes at least two swing states in the Sunbelt to win, which is very difficult.