jakiro
Author: K2 Kai, Source: X, @kaikaibtc
Since Trump came to power, except for the genius bill that the industry has paid attention to, what investors are more concerned about is, “Can I make money from the Trump family’s core projects?”
The most popular one is definitely WLFI (World Liberty Financial), which has caused widespread discussion since its launch. Most of the token unlocking rules will have to be decided after they are launched.This “governance first” model has made the opening of WLFI a foggy game.
What is the initial circulation volume?
First of all, the total supply of WLFI is 100 billion. Although the issuance volume is large, it is mostly in a “locked position”. There is one type of person who can sell it: the “pre-sale users” who participated in those two rounds of public offerings in the early stage can only unlock 20%. What should I do if the remaining 80% are left?Let’s vote later.
Therefore, the formula for calculating the initial circulation disk is simple: initial circulation = total tokens participating in public offering × 20%.On-chain data shows that the token share recorded by the system as a “pre-sale user” is 18.43 billion.
Ideally maximum circulation:18.43 billion × 20% = 3.69 billion.This is the theoretical ceiling, accounting for 3.69% of the total supply.But on August 26, WLFI announced that the Lockbox page was launched, and holders can transfer tokens and prepare to start the unlocking process.
In other words, even early pre-sale users who meet the initial unlocking requirements need to sign an unlocking agreement through “Lockbox” and advance the unlocking process.
As of the time of writing (19:32 on September 1), the tokens that have been deposited in this “Lockbox” are about 17.069 billion..
In reality, circulation volume: 17.069 billion × 20% = 3.41 billion.This is the amount that has been confirmed to be unlocked, accounting for 3.14% of the total supply.
So, we can draw a relatively reliable conclusion:The initial circulation volume at the opening of WLFI is about 3.41 billion to 3.69 billion..
According to the official announcement, WLFI will also change the calculation formula for initial circulation!
The formula is updated to: Initial circulation = coins in the “Lockbox” contract × 20% + 3 billion new market-making shares.
As of the latest data,The coins in “Lockbox” have increased to 16.89 billion.
Let’s recalculate:
17.069 billion × 20% = 3.41 billion (this is unlocked by pre-sale users)
Add 3 billion market makers’ coins.
The final initial circulation volume is ≈ 6.41 billion, accounting for 6.41% of the total supply.
What does it mean for transactions
Knowing the initial circulation volume, what can we do?The most direct thing is to estimate the initial circulation market value.Calculated by Binance’s pre-market price: Binance’s current pre-market contract price is around $0.2747.
Multiply by the updated circulation:6.41 billion × $0.2747 ≈ 1.76 billion US dollars.Initial circulating market value of US$1.76 billion, What is this concept?You can compare it with the market value of other celebrity projects when they were first launched, and you will have a rough positioning in your mind.This is a pretty high starting point, which means that the market’s expectations for it have been very full.
Based on this information, some points can be considered
Don’t rush to rush: The initial circulation volume is larger than expected, and early investors have huge profit margins (costs are only 0.015 and 0.05), there is a high probability that profit-making orders will be smashed after the opening.If you are not an early participant, it is best to wait and see first few hours of the opening market and wait until the price has fully changed hands before making a decision.
Follow the “Lockbox” data: The number of tokens in the “lock box” contract is still changing dynamically.You can keep following this number in the last few hours before opening
It directly determines how much selling pressure a retail investor is.
The role of market makers is crucial: The newly added 3 billion market-making share is the biggest variable.These coins are used to provide liquidity and stabilize prices.However, if the price fluctuates too much, market makers may also choose to smash or pull the market to control risks.Observing the trends of large-scale orders after the opening can help you judge the intentions of market makers.
