jakiro
Author: Haotian
Around this Ethereum version of “micro-strategy Summer” craze, can $ETH really copy the “forward flywheel” of BTC micro-strategy?Talking about some personal views:
1) ETH micro strategy is indeed a successful model for imitating BTC micro strategy. In the short term, many US stock companies will try Fomo and form a wave of positive flywheels.Regardless of the trading entities of the US stock market, the fact that traditional institutional funds and investors’ buying power with real money has brought Ethereum out of a long-term weakness with $ETH.
In other words, Fomo drives the rise, which is the iron rule that the bull market in the currency circle remains unchanged. However, this time Fomo’s main body is no longer pure retail investors in the currency circle, but the real money of Wall Street, which at least verifies that ETH has finally gotten rid of the dilemma of purely relying on the stacked narrative of the currency circle and began to attract incremental funds outside the circle;
2) BTC is closer to the reserve asset positioning of “digital gold”, with relatively stable value and clear expectations. ETH is essentially a “productive asset”, and its value is bound to multiple factors such as the use rate of the Ethereum network, Gas fee income, and ecological development.This means that ETH as a reserve asset has greater volatility and uncertainty.
Once the Ethereum ecosystem encounters major technical security problems, or the regulatory authorities put pressure on functions such as DeFi and Staking, ETH faces much more risks and volatility variables than BTC as reserve assets.Therefore, the narrative logic of the BTC version of micro strategy can be learned from, but it does not mean that the market pricing and valuation logic can also be consistent;
3) The Ethereum ecosystem has more mature DeFi infra accumulation and richer narrative ductility than BTC.Through the staking mechanism, ETH can generate a native yield of about 3-4%, which makes it equivalent to the “on-chain interest-generating treasury bond” in the crypto world.
Institution Buy in this story is a negative for the original construction of various infras such as BTC layer2 to provide BTC with interest income for native assets, but in the long run, it is just the opposite. Once ETH acts as a catalyst factor for programmable interest income assets, it will stimulate the rapid development of the BTC ecosystem to make up for the foundation of infra;
4) This round of micro-strategy Summer essentially reshuffles Crypto’s past narrative orientation. The original project-building project and diffusion technology narratives were told to VCs and retail investors in the market. To put it bluntly, they were told to the indigenous people in the currency circle. Now, this round of new narratives, whether it is RWA or TradiFi, may all tell stories to Wall Street in the future.
The key difference is that Wall Street does not eat pure concept pie, they want PMF – real user growth, revenue model, market size, etc.This forces the crypto project to shift from “technical narrative orientation” to “business value orientation”. Isn’t this the pressure brought to Ethereum by previous competitor Solana?After all, you have to face it;
5) This round of US stock micro-strategy concept trading entities including SharpLink Gaming, Bitmine immersion Tech, Bit Digital, BTCS inc., etc. are mostly companies that have weak growth in traditional capital markets and need to integrate Crypto to find new breakthroughs. They choose all-in crypto assets because their main business lacks growth points and have to seek new value growth engines.
The reason why these trading entities dare to be so radical is largely because they are using the US government to drastically promote the transformation of the crypto industry to the “arbitrage window” before the regulatory mechanism matures.In the short term, there have been many loopholes in legal and compliance – such as the ambiguity of accounting standards in the classification of crypto assets, the loose SEC disclosure requirements, the gray area of tax treatment, etc.
The success of micro-strategy has largely benefited from the bonus of this super bull market in BTC, but as a replicant, it may not have the same luck and trading ability.Therefore, the market popularity brought by the trading entity this time is not much different from the previous narrative hype of pure Crypto native. It is essentially a big bet and trial and error. Remember to be vigilant about investment risks.
Note: This round of micro-strategy Summer is more like a “big training” for Crypto to enter the mainstream financial system. Everyone is happy if they succeed, and a little joy if they fail (after all, the experiment that can drag ETH out of the quagmire of narrative weakness is success or failure!)
