jakiro
Shaw, bitchain vision
Bitcoin rose strongly in the early morning of this day, breaking through $124,400 in a short period of time, setting a new high, surpassing the previous historical high of $123,205.12 set on July 14.The cryptocurrency market has generally risen, and Ethereum continues to strengthen, which has previously hit its highest level since November 2021.
At the same time, the U.S. Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index continued to hit record closing highs.Bullish’s “newest banker in the currency circle” once soared nearly 200% for the first time, and the increase then fell sharply to 89%.
What are the driving factors behind this round of rise in Bitcoin and crypto markets, and how many have you seen in this wave of market?
1. What factors drive this round of market rise
1. Fed rate cut expectations continue to heat up pushes risky assets such as Bitcoin up
The latest CPI inflation figure in the United States this week is in line with expectations, strengthening market bets on the Fed’s interest rate cut in September.U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent Becent said in an interview that the Fed’s interest rate should be 150-175 basis points lower than it is now, and if the data is accurate, the Fed might have cut interest rates earlier.Becente believes that the Fed has the possibility of a 50 basis point cut, and a series of rate cuts may start with a 50 basis point cut in September.Trump continues to put pressure on the Fed, saying that the Fed should lower interest rates and should lower it to 1%.In addition, Goldman Sachs macroeconomic research analysis stated that it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October and December respectively this year, with a total of three interest rates cuts.It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, each time at 25 basis points, bringing the terminal interest rate range to 3-3.25%.
The continued deepening of Fed’s expectations for interest rate cuts has greatly stimulated the rise of risk-favored assets such as Bitcoin.As the Fed cuts interest rates,U.S. Treasury yieldsDecline, more investors may seek alternative assets with higher returns.This trend of capital inflows into non-traditional investment categories such as cryptocurrencies may further support greater room for Bitcoin prices.
2. “Coin stock convergence” drives the crypto market to continue to rise
Crypto market and U.S. stocks are moving forward together, reflecting the continued warming of risk appetite in global markets.Analysts said thatHighlights the deep linkage between cryptocurrencies and stock marketsBehind it is the dual driving force behind the Trump administration’s friendly policy environment and the massive entry of institutional funds.Analysts believe thatThe high correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional stock markets has become a significant feature of this round of rise.Speculative market sectors and mainstream benchmark index draw momentum from the same source of optimism, reflecting the general increase in current market risk appetite.This linkage effect shows that digital assets are gradually integrating into the risk pricing system of traditional financial markets, and institutional investors regard cryptocurrencies as an important part of the risk asset portfolio in their allocation strategies.
In addition, the recent concentrated outbreak of hot stocks in multiple “currency circles” has also stimulated the strengthening of the crypto market to a certain extent.On August 13, the digital asset trading platform Bullish was listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock price doubled during the first day of listing, becoming another hot “currency circle” new stock in the US stock market this year after the “first stablecoin stock” Circle.Due to violent volatility, the stock temporarily suspended trading several times, closing at $68, up nearly 84% during the day, with a market value of nearly $10 billion.To prevent excessive stock price fluctuations, Bullish allocates about 20% of the issuance share to individual investors, higher than usually less than 10%.Before the issuance, the company has obtained a total of US$200 million in subscription intentions from well-known institutions such as BlackRock and ARK Invest, demonstrating Wall Street’s strong interest in crypto trading platforms.
Circle also released its second quarter financial report for fiscal year 2025 on Tuesday.According to the report, as of the end of the second quarter, USDC circulation increased by 90% year-on-year to US$61.3 billion, and total revenue and reserve revenue increased by 53% year-on-year to US$658 million.The net loss for the quarter was $482 million, mainly affected by two non-cash spending related to initial public offerings (IPOs).
3. The wave of corporate coin hoarding is getting worse and institutional funds are entering the market in large quantities
It has become a popular trend for listed companies to establish crypto-stock reserves, driven by Michael Saylor’s Micro-Strategy (Strategy) company.More and more listed companies adopt corporate strategies to hoard Bitcoin, significantly pushing up market demand.This approach has recently expanded to cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, driving the entire digital asset sector to rise.Bitcoin treasury reserve companies are represented by micro-strategy and Metaplanet.Data shows that by BitcoinThe top five Bitcoin reserve entities with holdings, holding a total of 772,359 BTC.The top 100 entities hold a total of 951,323 BTC.The number of Bitcoins held by various institutions has reached 3.64 million, most of which are held by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and funds.
In addition, TraderT monitoring data showed that US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of US$6 billion in July.Since August 6, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for a week, with inflows reaching US$557.53 million.A large amount of capital flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, driving Bitcoin prices to continue to rise.
Unlike the previous retail-led upward cycle, this round of Bitcoin bull market has shown obvious institutional characteristics..The continued inflow of ETFs provides stable financial support for Bitcoin and maintains a relatively stable upward trend even when facing technical resistance.Standard Chartered Bank analysis pointed out that in the Bitcoin field, distribution on the balance sheet of a company affects market perception and liquidity.
4. Encryption is favorable to regulatory policies to drive the market upward
Recently,A series of favorable cryptocurrency regulatory policies introduced by the United States also drive the overall strength of Bitcoin and crypto markets.Last Thursday, Trump issued an executive order to push retirement plans such as 401(k) to invest in alternative assets, including private equity, crypto assets, and more.Currently, the 401(k) plan manages $9 trillion in assets, and more than 90 million people across the United States are using the plan.Previously, the plan focused on investing in some low-risk assets, such as treasury bonds, mutual funds, etc.Market estimates that if the 401(k) plan to allocate only 2% of its assets to cryptocurrency, it means about $170 billion in new capital inflows — equivalent to two-thirds of the market value of existing crypto spot ETFs and listed reserves.For details, please refer to “From low risk to high returns Deep reasons for the shift in US 401(k) investment》
In addition, the U.S. Treasury Department auctioned four-cycle treasury bills with a total of $100 billion last week, setting a record high.The Fiscal Borrowing Advisory Committee pointed out that the recent rise in stablecoin issuance has become one of the emerging sources of demand.According to the GENIUS Act promoted by President Trump, stablecoin issuers need to use secure assets such as Treasury bonds to support their crypto tokens, which indirectly drives the demand for Treasury bonds.Since the introduction of the GENIUS Act, the circulation of the stablecoin market has continued to increase.The stablecoin market experienced a sharp surge in market value of US$9.11 billion in 23 days.According to data collected by defilama.com and artemisanalytics.com, the total value of the stablecoin market has exceeded US$270 billion.The significant increase in stablecoin issuance and circulation has also become an important buying support for Bitcoin’s strong rise.
2. What is the future trend of the Bitcoin and crypto markets?
This bull market continues to heat up. What will happen to Bitcoin in the future? Can the cryptocurrency market continue to make efforts?Let’s take a look at the market’s views and analysis
1.IG Market Analyst Tony SycamoreThe momentum of Bitcoin’s rise comes from the increased certainty of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, continued institutional buying, and the Trump administration’s move to relax investment in crypto assets.”Technically, if Bitcoin effectively breaks above $125,000, it could push it to $150,000,” he wrote in a note.
2.Ben Kurland, CEO of cryptocurrency research platform DYOR“Slower inflation, increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and unprecedented institutional participation from ETFs have created a strong driving force. The difference this time is that the demand base is more mature – this round of rise is not just a retail fanaticism, but also a structural buy from asset management companies, enterprises and sovereign funds.”
3.Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst, Real VisionIt is estimated that U.S. federal debt has reached a record $37 trillion, with growing money supply and growing inflation concerns likely leading to a renewed recognition of Bitcoin’s currency scarcity, which could push Bitcoin’s price higher than $132,000 by the end of 2025.
4.CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler JrThe chart says that although Bitcoin (BTC) has risen to an all-time high (ATH), the actual profit-loss ratio remains near the average.In this case, the risk of a significant reversal of the trend is significantly reduced compared to the past profit-loss ratio when it is at its peak and the market is overheated.
5.Swissblock“We always hear people say, “False breakthrough rebound.”Shipping and taking over.This is not the case at all.Since the April low, the market has been driven by spot prices – large capital allocators are frantically shopping, buying almost all the remaining BTC.The futures to spot ratio has fallen back to its October 2022 low, a signal of epic spot demand.This is true.”
6.CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler JrAnalysis: The problem in the later stage of the bull market is that investors’ risk appetite has declined.Data shows that the indicator exceeded 1.9 in March and December 2024, but the indicator is currently forming a low peak, and coin holders have begun to actively sell, bringing pressure to the market.Although investors are still taking profits, the marginal premium of the cost base brought by each new price increase is getting smaller and smaller.Analysts said that considering the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, it is expected to rise twice in this cycle, and then the selling pressure will exceed demand and the market will enter a phase of adjustment.
6.Joe Lubin, Ethereum Co-founder and CEO of ConsensysIt said that Treasury Company may push ETH market value to surpass BTC within one year.
7.CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain“Outlook: Market volatility is increasing, but the bull market structure remains intact.Short-term: High leverage, resistance levels and increased exchange capital inflows increase the risk of sharp downward fluctuations in the market.Medium term: Strong institutional inflows, ETF demand and network upgrades should curb severe market pullbacks and maintain a broader uptrend.”
